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2009 Cotton Crop Review

2009 Cotton Crop Review. Dr. Chris Main Extension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester, G. Collins, D. Dodds, S. Duncan, K. Edmisten, R. Hutmacher, M. Jones, D. Monks, G. Morgan, R. Norton, G. Stevens, J. Whitaker, D. Wright .

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2009 Cotton Crop Review

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  1. 2009 Cotton Crop Review Dr. Chris Main Extension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester, G. Collins, D. Dodds, S. Duncan, K. Edmisten, R. Hutmacher, M. Jones, D. Monks, G. Morgan, R. Norton, G. Stevens, J. Whitaker, D. Wright

  2. U.S. Cotton Production -35% Acres x 1000

  3. U.S. Cotton Acres Change from 2008 - 2009 Reduced >15% Reduced 1-14% No Change Increased 1-14% Increased >15%

  4. U.S. Cotton Production Lbs/ac

  5. U.S. Cotton Production Number

  6. Outline Region by Region Statistics General observations Quotes

  7. Southeast 65,000 acres 900 lb/ac 375,000 acres 986 lb/ac 115,000 acres 842 lb/ac 255,000 acres 710 lb/ac 1,000,000 acres 907 lb/ac 82,000 acres 665 lb/ac

  8. Georgia Late planting and poor harvest conditions renders top crop unharvestable in some areas Pigweed still a problem K deficiency and leaf-spot

  9. Varieties for 2010? Top 6 varieties planted in Georgia during 2008 and 2009 Cotton Varieties Planted USDA-AMS

  10. Alabama • “It rained a lot here, then it didn't, then it rained a lot. Oh yeah, it's still raining.” • Dale Monks

  11. Florida • “We had 85,000 acres and that is expected to go up this coming year with higher prices.  However, we are going to have to get out this years (2009) crop first.” • David Wright

  12. Mid-South 275,000 acres 949 lb/ac 300,000 acres 891 lb/ac 520,000 acres 826 lb/ac 295,000 acres 758 lb/ac 230,000 acres 704 lb/ac

  13. Mid-South • Wet spring, late planted, reduced acres • Cooler and wetter than average summer • Reduced heat unit accumulation • Extraordinary crop potential in September • Rain, rain go away…. (9/12-11/04) • Earliness penalty, boll rot and hard lock • Late planting penalty, immature bolls • Tom Barber, Gene Stevens, Darrin Dodds,

  14. May 22, 2009

  15. Arkansas Production (USDA Report)

  16. Louisiana • Better than average crop in September • Est. 1000 lb/ac, actual 700 lb/ac • $81,000,000 in losses (wet harvest), underestimated • 230,000 ac is 23% of high in mid- 1990’s • Only 30 gins open in 2009 • Don Boquet

  17. Southwest 36,000 acres 720 lb/ac 200,000 acres 837 lb/ac 31,400acres 936 lb/ac 5,000,000 acres 650 lb/ac

  18. Oklahoma • “Strong summer, but a weak finish” • J.C. Banks • Planted late (dry winter) • Timely summer rains, lacked rain during August in Southern areas • Immature bolls from cooler wetter fall (dry land and irrigated) • Reduced fiber quality from weather

  19. Texas (Plains) • Similar to Oklahoma • “Cool September and early freezes in some areas have mic values declining and bark contamination trending up.” • Randy Boman

  20. Dryland – PlainsGenerally Spotty Light Rains Across Most Dryland Areas

  21. Center Pivot Irrigation - Plains

  22. “Not bad for cotton that should not be here.” - R. Boman

  23. Texas (South) • lack of precipitation for establishment and throughout the growing season; • volunteer cotton management in the corn/cotton or sorghum/cotton rotations; • harvest challenges due to prolonged wet weather at harvest time. • Gaylon Morgan

  24. May 15, 2009 U.S. Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html

  25. Texas Districts

  26. 1/ Preliminary, December, 2009.

  27. Western PIMA 130,000 acres 1247 lb/ac 70,000 acres 1714 lb/ac 140,000 acres 1450 lb/ac

  28. Arizona Intermittent weather patterns. Excellent planting conditions for majority of crop Cooler than average June. Higher incidence of verticillium wilt particularly in the low desert Heat returned with a vengeance (July and August) much warmer and drier than average Higher than average yields and good quality

  29. Arizona • Nearing end of Pink Bollworm Eradication Program. Upland Cotton >95% Bt Cotton (>70% Bollgard II) • Forage and dairy industry experiencing large reduction in forage crop plantings and intentions for 2010 • Likely to shift back to cotton for 2010. As much as 25% increase in cotton acreage for 2010 • Randy Norton

  30. California • Water issues continue • Both Pima (-19%) and upland (-40%) acres declined 2009 • Increase in acres expected 2010 • Lower processing tomato prices • More Pima acreage due to RRFlex offering

  31. 2009 Cotton Market cents/lb

  32. 2010 Expectations • Optimism for increased acres • Strengthening cotton prices • Increasing world demand • World production lower in 2009 • Lower competing commodity prices • Corn, soybean and wheat • Forages in Arizona • Tomatoes in California

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