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April Runoff Forecasts for the Columbia Basin and Power Supply Implications

April Runoff Forecasts for the Columbia Basin and Power Supply Implications. Jim Ruff and John Fazio Council Meeting April 14, 2010 Boise, ID. April 1 Snowpack for Columbia Basin above The Dalles, OR. 2010 January-July Runoff Forecast 69.7 Million Acre Feet (April Forecast for The Dalles Dam).

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April Runoff Forecasts for the Columbia Basin and Power Supply Implications

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  1. April Runoff Forecasts for the Columbia Basin andPower Supply Implications Jim Ruff and John Fazio Council MeetingApril 14, 2010Boise, ID

  2. 2

  3. 3

  4. April 1 Snowpack for Columbia Basin above The Dalles, OR 4

  5. 5

  6. 2010 January-July Runoff Forecast69.7 Million Acre Feet(April Forecast for The Dalles Dam) Hydroelectric Fuel Gauge 69.7 Maf is 65% of Average 95% Confidence Range is from 56 to 83 Maf 6

  7. Recent Runoff Volumes(January-July Volume at The Dalles) 7

  8. Lower Granite Flow Forecast 8

  9. McNary Flow Forecast 9

  10. Hydro System Generation 10

  11. 2010 Power Supply Outlook(Approximate) 11

  12. Power Supply Conclusions • Very low chance of power outage • Revenues will be lower than average • Less non-firm hydro to sell • Need to purchase more from the market • BPA is using some of its financial reserves to get through this year • Reservoir elevations at BiOp levels 12

  13. NW Power Pool Analysis (March 5) • NW Power Pool area (larger than the Council region) has adequate generation • Low flows will decrease hydro flexibility • Emergency measures may need to be implemented in the event of a significant resource loss and/or extreme temperature event (standard caveat) 13

  14. Additional Slides 14

  15. 15

  16. 2010 Add’l. Court-Ordered Spill 16

  17. Generation Loss due toCourt-Ordered Spill 17

  18. Runoff Distribution Used 18

  19. Annual Hydro Generation(relative to the driest year) 19

  20. Lower Granite Flow Forecast 20

  21. McNary Flow Forecast 21

  22. System Generation 22

  23. Hydro System Generationwith and without Court-ordered spill 23

  24. Energy Value of Court-Ordered Spill 24

  25. Court-Ordered Spill (Columbia R.) • BONNEVILLE • Apr10-Jun20: 100 kcfs all hours • Jun21-Jul20: 85 kcfs day/ gas cap night (113 kcfs) • Jul21-Aug31: 75 kcfs day/ gas cap night • THE DALLES • 40% of flow all hours • JOHN DAY • Apr 10-19: 0/60% of flow, all hours • Apr 20 - Jul 20: 35% of flow, all hours (testing 30% vs 40%) • Jul 21 - Aug 31: 30% of flow, all hours • MCNARY • Apr10-Jun14: 40% of flow • Jun15-Aug31: 50% of flow (testing 40% vs. 60%) 25

  26. Court-Ordered Spill (Snake R.) • ICE HARBOR • Apr3 - May1: 45 kcfs/gas cap (88 kcfs) • May2 - Jul16: 30% vs. 45 kcfs/gas cap • Jul17 - Aug31: 45 kcfs/88 kcfs of flow • LOWER MONUMENTAL • Apr3-June 20 : Gas Cap (~24-27 kcfs) all hours • Jun21- Aug 31: 17 kcfs all hours • LITTLE GOOSE • Apr3-Aug31: 30% of flow all hours • Apr24 - May7: 30% day/gas cap night (38 kcfs) • LOWER GRANITE • Apr3-Jun20: 20 kcfs all hours • Jun21-Aug31: 18 kcfs all hours 26

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