Reaching the marginalized

1. 2 1 0 0 EFA Global Monitoring Report Reaching the marginalized Samer Al-Samarrai Child Friendly Budgets for 2010 and Beyond Policy Forum New York, 18-19 February

2. Education at risk: the impact of the financial crisis • Despite progress world ‘off track’ to achieve EFA goals • ‘Aftershock effects’ will hamper progress particularly for marginalized groups: • rising poverty and levels of malnutrition • mounting fiscal pressures and slower economic growth will limit education financing • Increased aid vital for creating fiscal space but aid is under threat.

3. Numbers of out-of-school children are declining, but not fast enough 120 100 72 million 80 3 56 million 6 60 9 40 18 8 million 20 32 23 million 0 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Out-of-school children (millions) Out-of-school children 105 million Latin America and the Caribbean 4 8 Arab States Rest of the World East Asia and the Pacific 6 Latin America and the Caribbean South and West Asia Arab States 39 million East Asia and the Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa 45 million 1999

4. Ukraine Cuba Rural Bolivia Urban Indonesia Honduras Urban Cameroon Bangladesh Rural Chad Somalia Education marginalization – inequalities within countries 14 The case of Nigeria 12 10.3 years 10 years Rich. rural boys 9.7 years Rich. urban boys 10 Richest 20% Rich. rural girls Boys 8 Girls Average number of years of schooling Nigeria 6.7 years Poor. urban boys 6.4 years 6 4 Education poverty Poorest 20% 3.5 years 3.3 years Poor. rural girls 2.6 years 2 Extreme education poverty Rural Hausa Poor. rural Hausa girls 0.5 years 0 0.3 years

5. Consequences of the crisis on education • Increased levels of poverty and rising levels of malnutrition will have irreversible consequences in education: • Undermines cognitive development and causes irreversible losses in opportunities for learning • Reductions in household spending on education • Withdrawal of children from school • Negative consequences likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable

6. Budget monitoring • Little evidence that low-income countries cut public spending in 2009 • Most countries in SSA planned increases in expenditure on education • Only two countries planned to cut education expenditure (Benin and Ghana) • …. but problems with monitoring

7. Economic growth matters for education financing

8. Education financing could suffer from slower growth

9. Fiscal space constrained in most countries off-track • Room for manoeuvre is limited • Many countries with extremely limited fiscal space furthest off track for achieving EFA • Aid has the most immediate potential for protecting social sector budgets

10. Aid commitments to basic education – a worrying picture 12.3 12.1 12.0 10.4 9.9 9.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 • Disbursements are rising, however commitments fell by 22% in 2007, to US$4.3 billion. Total aid to education Total aid to basic education Constant 2007 US$ billions 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 Commitments

11. Rising to the EFA challenge Set equity-based targets for all EFA goals and monitor their progress. Monitor early warning impacts – budgets, health/education indicators, and vulnerable groups Changes in public spending need to be pro-poor. Increase resource mobilization and strengthen equity in public spending. Identify the drivers of marginalization for specific groups and adopt integrated policies that address them. Scale up support for social protection to protect productive assets, health and education Honour aid commitments and strengthen the multilateral architecture for aid to education.

12. 2 1 0 0 EFA Global Monitoring Report www.efareport.unesco.org