MAKING Minority GOVERNMENT WORK

1. Hung parliaments and the challenges for Westminster and Whitehall MAKING Minority GOVERNMENT WORK Report Launch @ Institute for Government 3 December 2009 Robert Hazell, Akash Paun, Mark Chalmers, Ben Yong

2. About the Project • Constitution Unit and Institute for Government partnership • “The unwritten rules of the game in British politics are deeply intertwined with the assumption that one party will win a clear majority and rule the roost. If that assumption is no longer valid, a very large proportion of the normal conventions of government would come under challenge.” David Butler, Governing without a majority, 1986 • 3 stages of government life cycle • 4 case studies • Lessons for 6 different actors

3. A norm of single party majority rule? Majority Minority Coalition 1890-99 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 Labour Liberal National Government Conservative Unionist

4. Disproportional representation 2005 General Election One seat per 97,000 votes One seat per 44,000 votes One seat per 27,000 votes

5. A Conservative victory would need a large swing in comparison with recent history What the Conservatives need for a majority in 2010 +6.9 +3.1 2005 2010

6. There is a wide ‘no man’s land’ between Conservative and Labour majorities Current opinion poll average = c.30 seat Tory majority At the same point in 1996 And the eventual result in 1997 2005 result = 42 seat Labour majority ‘No man’s land’ Labour lead Conservative lead Vote Share Sources: www.ukpollingreport.co.uk and www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

7. A longer government formation process Source: de Winter, L. (1995), ‘The role of parliament in government formation and resignation’, in Doring, H. (ed), Parliaments and Majority Rule in Western Europe, p.118.

8. A range of possible government forms Majority e.g. 1940-45 1979-2009 1979-2004 1999-2007 Pre-1996 1996-1998 • Agreement to disagree • Ministers outside Cabinet • Contract parliamentarism • Confidence agreements Single-Party Multi-Party 1998-9, 2008-9 1999-2008 1974, ‘76-79, ‘97 e.g. 2004-09 2007-2009 Minority

9. Minority and coalition government: Key tradeoffs • “Coalition (majority) rule makes life difficult within government but simple in parliament. Minority government is the other way around.” • “Minority government is a challenge for the opposition as much as a challenge for government.” • “The absence of a government majority does not imply the existence of an opposition majority.” • “A hung parliament will lead to multi-party governance, even if single party government continues.”

10. Canada’s Dysfunctional Minority Parliament Canada

11. Context • A Westminster-type Parliament with 308 MPs elected by the first past the post electoral system. • Queen is Head of State, with powers exercised by Governor General on advice of the PM. • 3 national parties: Conservatives, Liberals, NDP • 1 separatist party: Bloc Québecois

12. History • 10 minority governments in 20th century, 3 this century • Pure minority government is preferred • Many past minority governments viewed favourably, e.g. Lester Pearson • Current parliament defined by brinksmanship, continuous electioneering, hyperpoliticisation. • September ’08 dissolution; December ’08 prorogation

13. Three periods of minority governments

14. Key Lessons • Politicians need to make parliament work, avoid calling on the Monarch. • Be consultative and cooperative not unilateral. • Civil service must be prepared for possibility of coalition and other forms of multiparty governance. • Media plays role in educating and shaping attitudes

15. New Zealand’s Experience of Multi-Party Governance New Zealand

16. In Brief • Minority government can work, provided there is: • Preparation • Careful and sensible management • Adaptability and flexibility

17. NZ Governments, 1996-2009 by regular Cabinet participation

18. Key problems • Government formation • Multiparty management

19. Government Formation • Crown: • pre-emptive diplomacy • Civil service: • set out rules in advance • Political parties: • flexibility; multi-party arrangements

20. NZ Governments, 1996-2009 by executive responsibilities

21. Management • Multiparty management: • Sensible and careful management • The unity-distinctiveness dilemma: • Be flexible

22. Learning from Scotland’s Parliament of Minorities Scotland

23. Scottish constitutional context • Part of the Westminster family: the same fundamental relationship between government and parliament, ministers and civil service, party leaders and backbenchers. A similar party system and media environment. • But with significant differences.... • An aspiration for ‘a new politics’ of power-sharing, inclusiveness and accountability. • A proportional electoral system and multi-party politics. • Fixed term parliaments • Parliamentary procedures designed to strengthen the legislature, e.g. committees’ role in legislative process.

24. Three elections, three minority parliaments Liberal Democrats Others Labour Conservatives SNP

25. A decade of multi-party governance • Government formed within two weeks of each election, with some teething problems in 1999. • 1999-2007, stable coalition majority government based on detailed ‘Partnership Agreement’ and collective responsibility. • 2007 – SNP become the largest party for first time (by one seat). Despite narrowness of result, election viewed as SNP victory. • SNP minority government formed, with limited Green support. • First two and a half years of minority rule have seen a slowdown in legislation, plus frequent government defeats in Parliament. • But only one government bill has been lost; most defeats have been on non-binding motions and legislative amendments. • 2009 Budget was initially defeated, triggering talk of crisis, but this was resolved in a week, with concessions offered to the opposition.

26. Key lessons from Scotland • Formal coalition can be constraining, and may undermine the smaller party’s identity. • A coalition majority government can dominate parliament like a single party administration at Westminster. • Minority government increases uncertainty in parliament, but permits a clearer strategic vision and more flexibility. • A minority government needs to manage expectations, downplay significance of defeats, build relationships with opposition parties, and be prepared to compromise (on policy, spending and agenda). • But government is able to retain dominance of the legislative, budgetary and policy-making process. • Minority rule can lead to (perceived) politicisation of the civil service. • To critics, SNP is populist and unaccountable. To defenders, the current parliament represents grown-up, inclusive decision-making.

27. Lessons for Westminster, Whitehall and the Crown Making it work

28. Lessons for Prime Minister and government • Do not govern in a majoritarian way • Accept likelihood of frequent parliamentary defeats • Prepare media and public for these defeats, so not seen as issues of confidence • Set out clear strategy and long term goals • When advising the Crown, put aside party interest

29. Civil Service must be prepared • For caretaker government, with clear caretaker convention • To support negotiations between the parties • For different possible combinations of minority and/or coalition government • For relaxation of collective Cabinet responsibility, but not confidentiality • To develop a clear set of rules to which all players subscribe

30. Lessons for Parliament • Parliament cannot make policy, or force government to do anything against its will • Implement Wright Committee proposals to relax government domination of the timetable • Government legislation won’t diminish. But its passage will take longer, and it will be more heavily amended • Budget still dominated by government. Opposition parties will negotiate changes, need expert support • Contested procedural rulings, pressure on Speaker

31. Lessons for the opposition parties • Lack of government majority does not mean there is an opposition majority • Difficult to coordinate ‘the opposition’ against the government, or bring government down • Minority government forces opposition parties to behave responsibly: they determine which measures pass • Can influence government policy through bilateral deals • Hold out for stronger research and policy support

32. Lessons for the Crown • Mystique about government formation risks drawing Crown into controversy • Need clear rules to explain it is not Monarch’s role to form a government, or facilitate negotiations • Decision to form a government must be reached by politicians • PM then advises who can command confidence • Investiture vote to elect new PM would be more direct test of confidence than Queen’s Speech

33. Minority government can work if... • The government does not seek to govern in a majoritarian way • The civil service understands the rules of the new political game, and codifies them into a new rule book • Parliament becomes a forum in which the government builds legislative coalitions with different parties on different issues • The opposition parties are encouraged to behave responsibly, and supported in parliament to do so • The media also understand the new political game, and do not depict minority government as nasty, disputatious and short

34. Backup slides

35. Four ideal types of government Majority Single-Party Multi-Party Minority

36. Single party majority rule as the norm?

37. Two party dominance has declined

38. Challenges for the executive