Making minority government work

1. Making minority government work Professor Robert Hazell The Constitution Unit, University College London IPPL conference, Toronto 13 November 2009

2. Minority government 1900-2000

3. UK experience of minority and coalition government • 20 governments in C20 at Westminster • 5 were coalition governments • 5 were minority governments • No experience of coalition government since 1945 • Last experience of minority government 1976-79 • Minority government seen as unstable, ineffective, incoherent and undesirable

4. Lessons from minority government in other Westminster parliaments • Canada: 10 minority govts in C20, 3 this century • New Zealand: 5 minority governments since 1996, mostly coalitions, or with supply and confidence agreements with minor parties • Scotland: minority government since 2007. Wales 1999-2000 and 2005-07 • Australian states and Canadian provinces

5. Recent Lessons from minority government in Canada • Major parties still hope to gain an overall majority • PM Harper governed in majoritarian way • Requests to Governor General to dissolve Parliament in Sept 2008 and prorogue Parliament in December • Government has got most of its legislation through • Media portray minority government as inherently unstable • Would the Liberals in a new minority parliament choose to form a minority government?

6. Lessons from minority government in New Zealand • Parliament is less executive dominated, but no less party based. Tight whipping and caucusing • Stronger Select Committees, which divide time 50:50 between legislation and inquiries • Minor party ministers are not bound by collective responsibility, but are bound by confidentiality • Strong civil service guidance on constitutional conventions in the Cabinet Manual

7. Lessons from minority government in Scotland • SNP government viewed as stable and successful • Little legislation: half previous output • Government has to construct coalition of support for each bill • Scottish Parliament has not filled the gap, despite committees’ power to initiate legislation • Opposition parties have not wanted to trigger early election. Two thirds threshold for dissolution

8. Lessons for Prime Minister and government • Do not govern in a majoritarian way • Accept likelihood of frequent parliamentary defeats • Prepare media and public for these defeats, so not seen as issues of confidence • Set out clear strategy and long term goals • When advising the Crown, put aside party interest

9. Civil Service must be prepared • For caretaker government, with clear caretaker convention • To support negotiations between the parties • For different possible combinations of minority and/or coalition government • For relaxation of collective Cabinet responsibility, but not confidentiality • To develop a clear set of rules to which all players subscribe

10. Lessons for Parliament • Parliament cannot make policy, or force government to do anything against its will • Relax government domination of the timetable? • Government legislation won’t diminish. But its passage will take longer, and it will be more heavily amended • Budget still dominated by government. Opposition parties will negotiate changes, need expert support • Contested procedural rulings, pressure on Speaker

11. Lessons for the opposition parties • Lack of government majority does not mean there is an opposition majority • Difficult to coordinate ‘the opposition’ against the government, or bring government down • Can influence government policy through bilateral deals • Hold out for stronger research and policy support • Consider supply and confidence agreements to preserve parties’ distinct identity

12. Lessons for the Crown • Mystique about government formation risks drawing Crown into controversy • Need clear rules to explain it is not Monarch’s role to form a government, or facilitate negotiations • Decision to form a government must be reached by politicians • PM then advises who can command confidence • Investiture vote to elect new PM would be more direct test of confidence than Queen’s Speech

13. Lessons for Westminster? • Minority government strengthens Parliament vis-à-vis the Executive • Government has to construct majorities for each bill • Tighter whipping likely in the Commons • Pressures on Speaker: procedural motions, tied votes • Could increase prospects for parliamentary reform, but only if support parties promote that agenda • House of Lords is already chamber with no overall control. Government defeated in one third of votes in the Lords

14. Minority government can work if • It has confidence and supply agreements with support parties • It can build legislative coalitions with different parties on different issues • The opposition parties are encouraged to behave responsibly, and supported in parliament to do so • It is not frightened of an election, and is doing well in the polls • The PM does not seek to govern in a majoritarian way

15. For our research on minority and coalition government contact Professor Robert Hazell r.hazell@ucl.ac.uk Akash Paun Mark Chalmers Ben Yong www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit