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Measuring Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

Measuring Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects. Martin B. Short, Maria R. D’Orsogna, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, George E. Tita. Maria Pavlovskaia. Repeat and Near-Repeat Victimization. Criminals likely to revisit crime scene Likely to rob neighbors of previous victims. Why?.

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Measuring Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

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  1. Measuring Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects Martin B. Short, Maria R. D’Orsogna, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, George E. Tita Maria Pavlovskaia

  2. Repeat and Near-Repeat Victimization • Criminals likely to revisit crime scene • Likely to rob neighbors of previous victims

  3. Why? • Knowledge of entry modes and security • Easy access to site • Abundance of material possessions • Knowledge of neighbor’s daily routines

  4. Data analysis • Measured the distribution of wait times between successive burglaries • Rapidly decaying function • Conclusion: houses likely to be robbed again within a short period of time of a burglary • Thus repeat victimization hypothesis is true?

  5. Random Event Hypothesis • Burglaries occur at random with rate  • Poisson process • Wait times exponentially distributed

  6. Testing the REH Two different counting methods • Sliding window method • Monitors each house for max days after burglary • Count the number of burglaries occur in that time • Fixed window method • Classify houses by number of times robbed • Look at the distribution of wait times in each class

  7. Sliding Window Method • Sample contains D days of data • Data split into N blocks with crime rates i • Corresponding weights wi • Predicted distribution:

  8. Sliding Window Method • Long Beach Data Set 3

  9. Fixed Window Method • Sample contains D days of data • Only focus on houses robbed twice • Predicted distribution:

  10. Fixed Window Method • Long Beach Data Set

  11. REH disproved • Robberies are correlated as hypothesized • Data supports the exact-repeat hypothesis • Burglarized houses likely to be struck again • Data also supports near-repeat hypothesis

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