Climate Change: Interdisciplinary Problem Solving

1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2017 January 19, 2017

2. Class Information and News • Canvas site: CLIMATE_480_001_W17 • Record of course • Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • Rood’s Class Tumblr Site: http://openclimate.tumblr.com

3. Class News • For federal agency assignment: There is a place to submit text or upload files on Canvas site. • A folder on google docs site to upload pdfs, etc. of web sites. Please used specified format for file names • yyyymmdd_agency_lastname_firstname_description

4. Resources and Recommended Reading • TED Video and Education on Feedbacks • Wikipedia on Feedbacks • Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate Models • Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

5. Mind Map / Brainstorming

6. Outline: Class 5, Winter 2017 • Balance and Altering Balance • System • Unique • Feedbacks • Alter balance: Recover? • Alter balance: Fall? • Alter balance: New Balance? • In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard • Weather • Climate • Climate change?

7. BALANCE

8. Radiation Balance FigureIn this figure out = in

9. BALANCE (National Geographic)

10. Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

11. Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

12. Artist’s View of Ecosystem How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3) from climate? Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

13. Changes in the sun THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING Things that change reflection Things that change absorption If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface. So what matters?

14. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)In this figure out does not = in

15. Balance: Markets and Economics • What does the Federal Reserve do? • Markets (How do we watch movies?) • 1950 • 1970 • 1990 • 2000 • 2017 • Movies • Movies on TVs • Videocassettes • DVDs • Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox • Streaming

16. Feedbacks • When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

18. Problem Solving Brings Focus to System • System (Dictionary Definitions): • a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole • a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole • has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection • Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

19. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Net +3.5 Movement of carbon dioxide by burning Millions of Years

20. Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

21. More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere • FEEDBACKS .... • The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen. • That second thing then does something to the first thing • It damps it, negative feedback • It amplifies it, positive feedback • Technical Reference: Soden and Held

22. Feedback • Definition • Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are "fed back" as inputs to the system • Negative feedback regulates the system • Positive feedback causes system to • Implode • Explode

23. We perturb the system – how does it respond? • What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable? • Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

24. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 1Infrared Proportional to Temperature • Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same • Infrared emission is proportional to temperature • Temperature increases  emission increases

25. Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture • If you were becoming a forest fire fighter • If you were developing a new clothes dryer

26. Holding Moisture vs Temperature From Engineering Tool Box

27. Temperature and Moisture in Air Moisture Cold Wet Hot Wet Temperature Cold Dry Hot Dry

28. Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse effect Not physical Warmer Moisture Cooler Not Physical

29. CO2 Warming • Increases Temperature • Increases Moisture • Increases Greenhouse • Increases Temperature

30. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 2Water Vapor • When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere • Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean • Higher temperature allows air to hold more water • Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more • This could runaway! • Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain? • Compensating circulation changes? • Think deserts …

31. Temperature and Ice/Snow Ice More Ice Temperature Less Ice

32. Ice/Snow and Reflection Reflection Increased Reflection Ice Snow Decreased Reflection

33. Ice/Snow and Absorption Absorption ? ? Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow Ice Snow ? Decreased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow Decreased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow ?

34. The Earth System: Feedbacks 3Ice – Reflection (Albedo) • When it gets warmer less ice • Less ice means less reflection  warmer • Warmer means less ice • This could runaway! • Cooler works the other way  ice-covered Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ICE

35. What happens with clouds?

36. The Earth System: Feedbacks 4Clouds? • Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact • Warmer  more water  more clouds • More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler • More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer • More or less clouds? • Does this stabilize? • Water in all three phases essential to stable climate Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space CLOUD ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

37. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Warming and Cooling Possible • This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides. • How clouds change has been much argued. • The Iris Effect?

38. The Earth System: Feedbacks 5Something with the Ocean? • Is there something with the ocean and ice? • Warming ocean temperatures? • Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density) • Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere • Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean • North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate • Think Gulf Stream • Think climate and people and economy • Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? • Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

39. The Earth System: Feedbacks 6Something with the Land? • Is there something with the land and ice/snow? • Warming land temperatures? • Snow cover decreases reflection on land? • Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability • Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? • Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

40. CLOUD-WORLD SUN Earth System: Ice • ICE: • Very important to reflection of solar radiation • Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) • Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice) • Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. • . • Large “local” effects at pole. • Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. • Might change very quickly. ATMOSPHERE OCEAN LAND ICE (cryosphere)

41. non-polar glaciers and snow polar glaciers (Greenland) (Antarctica) sea-ice The Earth System: ICE(Think a little more about ice) Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc. Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

42. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Some carry away messages • The Earth is at a complex balance point • That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. • Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor • Too cold run away to “snowball” ice • Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling? • Is Earth a “regulated” system? • Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?

43. Feedbacks • Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive. • Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive. • (WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009) • The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed. • Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. • Theoretical and observational investigation concludes that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive. • (Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)

44. Summary: Class 5, Winter 2017 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” • Unique and stable • Prone to natural change • With stable input? • With varying input?

45. Summary: Class 5, Winter 2017 • Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” • Unique and stable • Prone to natural change • With stable input? • With varying input?

46. Outline: Class 5, Winter 2017 • Balance and Altering Balance • System • Unique • Feedbacks • Alter balance: Recover? • Alter balance: Fall? • Alter balance: New Balance? • In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard • Weather • Climate • Climate change?

47. Some key words so far: • Absorption • Reflection • Balance • Temperature to zero degrees • CO2 and Temperature Correlation • Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP) • Conservation Calculating Budgets