Concept note for Pakistan’s Water Sector Strategy

1. AsjadImtiaz Ali, Prject Director, Water Sector Capacity Building, Ministry of Water and Power Zahoor Ahmad Barlas, Joint Secreatry, Ministry of Water and Power Arianna Legovini, Head, Development Impact Evaluation Initiative Concept note for Pakistan’s Water Sector Strategy

2. Project description • Within the Water Sector Capacity Building Project, the Gov. of Pakistan is designing an improved water resources management framework to address: • Inefficient delivery system and use of water • Low pricing and inadequate collection • Lack of maintenance of the entire irrigation system • 57,000 km of canals and affiliated structures! • Projected decline in water availability from existing 1100 to 800 cum/person/year due to population growth,climate change and reduced storage capacity • To transform this framework, GoP plans to conduct a series of pilot tests to learn what combination of interventions can improve water management at water association level

3. Research questions • What is the effect of providing water user associations (WUAs) with information in the form of a report card on the WUA performance on current water management ? • What is the effect of facilitating a participatory process to improve water management performance at WUA level additional to the provision of information? • What is the effect of rewarding WUAs for performance improvements?

4. Indicators • Water-intensity of agriculture • Agricultural output per unit of water (agricultural productivity) • WUAs proportion of sprinkler and drip irrigation (technology adoption) • Efficient and equitable water use • Water use per capita per year • Water use per acre per year • Ratio of wateravailabilityper acre downstream to upstream • Water price for sustainable water resources • Disputes and complaints • Financial sustainability measures • Recover maintenance costs • Collection rates • Water infrastructures’ efficiency • Ratio of existing to rated water capacity

5. Identification strategy • Pilot in Central Punjab/Sindh • Random assignment of water user associations (WUAs) to one control and three treatments: • Provision of information to WUA on current performance indicators for the WUA and relative to average WUA performance (in the rest of the sample) (information only) • (a) plus facilitation of WUA participatory process for dissemination of information and development & implementation of a plan for efficient water management (information plus facilitation)

6. Cont. Identification strategy • Provision of performance-based public recognition incentives (Award for Best Performer) (c) will be assigned randomly to 50% of the information only WUAs arm and 50% of the information plus facilitation WUAs arm of the study

7. Arms of the study

8. Sample • The sampling unit is the WUA • Farms in the WUA will be stratified based on location along the tertiary canal • The exact number of WUAs per arm of the study will be determined through power calculations • Two representative areas, one each in Punjab and Sindh provinces (approx. 2,500 acres each) will be selected for the study • 120 villages (approx. 2,400 households)

9. Data • MIS Irrigation provincial departments • Determination of data needs • Quality/needs assessment of existing administrative data • Proposals for MIS improvements • Survey data • Farm level (household) • Water subsystem level

10. Timeline • Follow up meeting/finalize CN with OusmaneDione (TTL), Mushfiq Mubarak (Yale), Florence Kondylis (DIME), AsjadImtiaz Ali, PD, WCAP, Zahoor Ahmad Barlas, Ministry of Water and Power, Arianna Legovini (DIME), John Briscoe (Harvard)—mid-July 2010 • Securing of finances July-Sept 2010 • Preparatory activities July-Sept 2010 • Baseline Nov-Dec 2010 • MIS data analysis Feb 2011 • Baseline data analysis + preparation of score cards March 2011 • Intervention roll-out (dissemination and facilitation in 80 treatment WUAs) Apr-Jun 2011 • Follow up Nov-Dec 2011 • IE analysis May-June 2012

11. Impact evaluation team • Project coordinators (WCAP & DIME) • Consultants/ Experts from private sector • Existing WCAP Staff + Required Staff recruited by the project • DIME Experts/ regular staff(part-time) • Seconded staff of Provincial Irrigation Departments/ Social Welfare Departments

12. Estimated budget • Project coordinators ($40,000) • Consultants (2 Man Months, $25,000) • Baseline Survey ($ 208,000) • Follow up Survey ($ 208,000) • DIME research team ($150,000) • MIS assessment/improvements proposal ($30,000) • Intervention costs in 80 treatment WUA ($80,000) • Preparation of “score cards” • dissemination to the WUA, • facilitation of participatory process