Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation

1. www.climate-transitions.org www.i-s-e-t.org Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation Quantifying the Benefits

2. Conceptual Starting Point • Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well” • “Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction • Weather related events already account for 70% of disasters • Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic poverty in many parts of the world.

3. The Practical Challenge The conceptual part is easy Translating concepts to action isn’t “Buzzwords” abound -- but what does DRR or “adaptation” mean? Practical Methodologies are Essential

4. The Risk to Resilience Project • Case Studies • Rawlpindi, Pakistan • Rohini River, U.P. • Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar • Collaboration • ISET • ISET-Nepal • IIASA • KCL • WII • GEAG • PIEDAR

5. The Methodology • Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms • Detailed vulnerability analyses • Identification of DRR options through SLDs • Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… • Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… • Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios • Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts • Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis

6. Monitor, document & reflect Monitor, document & reflect Monitor, document & reflect Shared Learning Process Adapted from Lewin 1946: “Action research and minority problems” Local Experience Scientific Knowledge Shared Learning Act Learning Shared Learning Act Shared Learning Act Time

7. Sample Quantitative Results

8. Results of detailed CBAs indicate investment in risk reduction can generate high rates of return True but overly simplistic Not all approaches are resilient under changing climatic conditions Not all approaches benefit everyone - particularly the poor

9. Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change • Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities) • Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments) • Potential for negative externalities

10. Not all All Approaches Benefit Everyone • Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability • Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest • Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups • Groundwater development -- particularly benefits middle farmers Most approaches involve social tradeoffs

11. Qualitative CBA Transects Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River Transect 1: The Bairgania Bund

12. Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund (+, - - -) (+ + +,- ) (+, - -) (+ +, -) +, - - (+, - - -) (+, - - -)

13. Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River (+ + +) (+ +,-) (- - -)

14. Transect 3:Settlementsalong Lal Bakaiya River (+ +,- -) (- - -) (+,- -) (+ +, -)

15. Robust approaches • address the systemic factors creating vulnerability • respond to recurrent sources of variability • have low dependence on specific climate projections Many such approaches are community based

16. Questionable DRR Approaches • Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: • Dependence on specific event characteristics • Long lead times • High initial investments • Long-term institutional dependence • Large distributional consequences

17. Climate Risk Management Requires • A mix of strategies • Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized • Systemic as well as targeted • Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure • Risk spreading as well as risk reduction • Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability • Tangibility rather than generalizations