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Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures

African Futures 2050. Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures. Institute for Security Studies ( Africa in the New World 2008) Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. African Futures Project 2050. The Founding Partners.

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Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures

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  1. African Futures 2050 Institute for Security StudiesPardee Center for International Futures

  2. Institute for Security Studies (Africa in the New World 2008) Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures African Futures Project 2050 The Founding Partners

  3. Demographics and human development Economics with strengths and challenges Socio-political elements and choices Sustainability African Futures 2050 Elements of a Story about Africa’s Future:

  4. Global Transformations Actions within Africa African Futures 2050 Telling a Story about Africa’s Future (Key Uncertainties):

  5. A Tool for the Story: International Futures (IFs) Population

  6. A Tool for the Story: International Futures (IFs) Population Population Economy

  7. A Tool for the Story: International Futures (IFs) Socio-Political Population Agriculture Education Technology Environmental Resources and Quality Energy Health Economy InternationalPolitical

  8. Free to anyone www.ifs.du.edu Non-commercial and open Used by the UNEP’s GEO 4, US NIC, and EU projects The IFs Project Free + Open

  9. Not identical to AU regions African Regions for the African Futures Project

  10. 1960: <10 percent of world 2010 ~15 percent of world 2100 ~32 percent of world A thread of the report story: Africa’s growing (positive) importance in the world Population: An Impending Global TransformationBy 2030 Africa will be larger than China or India

  11. 1960 Eastern/Southern < 2 2050 Eastern/Southern ~ 3 African Population: Critical Regional Differences

  12. African Population: The Past and Future of Fertility

  13. African Population: Growing Demographic Dividend in Global Context

  14. 1960 Africa 19 percent 2010 Africa ~ 41 percent 2050 Africa ~ 55 percent A thread of the report story: Urbanization and economic dynamism African Population: Urbanization in Global Context

  15. African Human Development: Global Context

  16. A thread of the report story: India as a model for Africa African Literacy: Global Context India as a Model for African Development?

  17. African Literacy: Regional Differences

  18. African Health and Life Expectancy: Regional Context

  19. African Health: Regional Differences

  20. Absolute numbers of deaths cross in 2025; in 2050 obesity rate will be near under-nutrition rate African Health: An ImpendingTransition

  21. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move African Economy: Accelerating Growth?

  22. Source: Simon Freemantle & Jeremy Stevens, Confronting some of the major criticisms of Sino-Africa ties, Economics: BRIC and Africa Standard Bank, 5 March 2010, p 5 Threads of the report story: Growing importance to Africa of China Growing South-South Linkages Global Transformation: China-Africa Trade (Billion $)

  23. A thread of the report story: Great diversity within Africa African Economy: Regional Variation Historically

  24. African Economy: Future Regional Variation

  25. A thread of the report story: Persistent challenges African Economies: Persistent Extreme (<$1.25) Poverty

  26. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move A thread of the report story: Economic diversification African Economies: Dimensions of Transformation

  27. African Economic Challenge: Regional Transformations

  28. African Economic Challenge: Coming Transformations

  29. A thread of the report story: Agriculture potential and challenges (e.g. water) African Agricultural Productivity Challenge: Global Context

  30. Source: Oli Brown and Alec Crawford, From Climate Change and Security in Africa, A Study for the Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting, March 2009, p 15. Available at http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?pno=1093 African Environmental Challenge: Climate Change and Precipitation

  31. Threads of the report story: New oil, gas, other mineral discoveries will be large Peak oil and gas will come also for Africa African Energy Challenge: Riding the Production Transition

  32. Units: Billion dollars annually Source: Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia (ed’s) Africa's Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation, Africa Development Forum Series, Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank, Washington DC, 2010, p 7. Available at http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/library/doc/552/africa%E2%80%99s-infrastructure-time-transformation (accessed on 3 December 2010) African Infrastructure Challenge: Building and Maintaining

  33. African Infrastructure Challenge: Sanitation and Safe Water

  34. Current value in the US: 14,000 Current values in India and Africa: ~ 600 African Infrastructure Challenge: Electricity

  35. African Regional Challenge: Rail Connections

  36. African Infrastructure Leapfrog: Mobile and Broadband

  37. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move: 25 African Regional Challenge: Intraregional Trade

  38. Source: Freedom House, 2010 available at http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=25&year=2010 African Governance Challenge: Democracy/Freedom

  39. African Democracy: Regional History

  40. African Government Challenge: Democratic Deficit

  41. In the long run GDP per Capita brings down corruption In the short run corruption brings down GDP per capita The Relationship between GDP per Capita and Transparency (Lack of Corruption)

  42. Source: Monty G. Marshall and Benjamin Cole. 2009 African Security Challenge: Global Context

  43. Source: Source SIPRI, http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2010/02/02A African Security Challenge: Africa in Global Context

  44. In the long run GDP per Capita brings down conflict In the short run conflict brings down GDP per capita The Relationship between GDP per Capita and Vulnerability to Conflict

  45. Africa is perceived far too negatively in much of world Africa is rising on most dimensions, absolutely and relatively Africa does face many challenges Final: Future is always uncertain African Futures 2050 Recapping the Story:

  46. Alternative Futures in Africa: Exploring Uncertainty and Opportunity Friendly Global Context African Renaissance Opportunities Lost Weak/Parasitic African Governance Development- focused African Governance Arrested Development Politics of the Belly Harsh Global Context

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