DEBESH BHOWMIK INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES , KOLKATA

1. AN INTRODUCTION TO FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE (JEL – Q18,Q38,Q54)Key words – Climate change , Agricultural yield, food security DEBESH BHOWMIK INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES , KOLKATA

2. INTRODUCTION World Food Summit (1996) defined food security as “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” FOOD SECURITY has 3 pillars – Food availability,Foodaccess,Food use “There can be no food security without climate security,” said Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations Secretary-General.

3. FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASED TEMPERATURE LEADS TO DECREASED CROP YIELD ROSENBERG AND CROSSON(1991) SHOWED REDUCTION AGRICULTURE YIELD BY 2030 DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING WITH/WITHOUT CARBON FERTILISATION(8.4%/17.1%) REILLY,HOHMANN,KANE(1994) SHOWED 116-248 bi $ GLOBAL DAMAGE BY 2080 FISCHER(ED-2002) BOOK found that for rainfed cereal production based on one crop per year,land currently under cultivation would experience a decrease in production potential by 3.5% globally and a gain of 4% in multiple cropping and also a net losses of about 89 million metric tons of cereals capacity for the developing countries( or about 5%) BY 2080.

4. SANGHI,MADELSOHN,DINAR(2001) SHOWED 1.5% GDP LOSS IN INDIA BY 2080 AS A CLIMATE CHANGE, REDUCTION IN OUTPUT 30-35% IN SOUTHERN REGION AND 60% IN NORTHERN REGION. NORDHAUS,BOYER(2000) SHOWED 1% GAIN IN CANADA,AUSTRALIA,NEW ZEALAND AND 0.5% GAIN IN JAPAN,CHINA IN AGRICULTURE. Tol(2002) identified the agricultural impact of global warming for 9 regions which were significantly negative at 2.5°C. Jorgenson(2004) showed that world agriculture will decline by 26% in a central climate scenario with 2.4°C global mean warming and 3.1°C US warming by 2100.

5. Hitz and Smith(2004) found that agricultural impact of global warming were uncertain below 3°C temperature increase Parry and Fischer(1995) found sharply increasing adverse effects above 4°C. The Stern Report of UK Government(2006) estimated the perspective damage of global warming in a range of 5% to 20% of GDP by 2200 Parry,Rosenzweig,Livermore(2005) estimated using Rosenzweig and Parry data(2004) that cereal production in developed countries at 3°C will boost 3-13% but reduced in developing countries by 10-13% and global production declined by 0-5% in simulation of three climate models.

6. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) concludes that crop productivity would increase at 1-3°C local mean temperature and decreased beyond at high latitude but the productivity would decrease at 1-2°C local mean temperature at lower latitude.

7. CLIMATE CHANGE,FOOD SECURITY AND INDIA IPCC(1996) ASSERTED THAT RICE AND WHEAT YIELD COULD DECLINE KUMAR AND PARIKH (1998) SHOWED THE LOSS IN NET REVENUE AT THE FARM LEVEL IS ESTIMATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 9% AND 25% FOR A TEMPERATURE RISE OF 2°C-3.5°C Sanghi, Mendelsohn, and Dinar (1998) calculated that a 2 °C rise in mean temperature and a 7% increase in mean precipitation would reduce net revenues by 12.3% for the country as a whole.

8. Agriculture in the coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka is found to be the most negatively affected. Small losses are also indicated for the major food-grain producing regions of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, West Bengal, Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh are predicted to benefit – to a small extent – from warming. Adapting agriculture to climate change is the key to food security in the 21st century. Diversity farming is the single most important modern technology to achieve food security in a changing climate.

9. changing varieties/species to fit more appropriately to the changing thermal and/or hydrological conditions; changing timing of irrigation and adjusting nutrient management; applying water-conserving technologies and promoting agro biodiversity altering timing or location of cropping activities and the diversification of agriculture.” Using Genetic Engineering plants.

10. INDIAN POLICIES UPA-II government proposed Food Security Act They will ensure 35 kg of rice and wheat to all the Below Poverty Line (BPL) households in India at ` 3.00 per kg in urban and rural area. It will cost 2.23% of GDP in 2010-11 ie 0.75% of GDP deficit. National Advisory Council Working Group increased from 25kgs to 35kgs and allow it to sc/st also.

11. The NAC wants to extend ‘comprehensive nutrition support schemes for infants, pre-school children, school children, welfare hostel students, adolescent girls, pregnant women, street-children, homeless, the aged and infirm, differently-abled, those living with leprosy, TB and HIV/AIDS etc.,’. These schemes would be supplemented with ‘community kitchens and destitute feeding’ throughout the country. The final section of this release aims to work towards ‘measures for enhancing agriculture production, PDS and procurement reforms, ICDS reforms and maternity benefits, community kitchens and destitute feeding’. The working group would also develop systems of ‘oversight, transparency, accountability and grievance reddressal’.

12. Conclusion The association of climate change and food security can be better explained in WTO in which international trade in agricultural production is closely related. The international climate policy is positively correlated with food security in home and abroad Therefore,we hope for next summit after Copenhagen

13. THANK YOU THANK YOU VERY MUCH