1 / 16

LATIN AMERICA Inflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten?

LATIN AMERICA Inflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten?. Carnegie International Economics Program February 16, 2011. Latin America. Policy Stimulus Resulted in Record Recovery from Global Recession. Percent change over a year ago. f = IIF forecast.

edmund
Download Presentation

LATIN AMERICA Inflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. LATIN AMERICAInflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten? Carnegie International Economics Program February 16, 2011

  2. Latin America Policy Stimulus Resulted in Record Recovery from Global Recession Percent change over a year ago f = IIF forecast

  3. Latin America Fiscal and Quasi-fiscal Stimulus were Driving Forces Percent of GDP f = IIF forecast

  4. Monetary Policy: Tightening Cycle Beginning in Some Countries, but Rates Remain Accommodative Latin America percent Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia *US$ / local currency

  5. Latin America Food Prices Adding to Inflationary Pressure Trade weighted average price Source: UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index

  6. Latin America Inflation Above Mid-Point of Target Band in Most Countries Percent change over a year ago Actual Inflation Target Band Mid-Point

  7. Latin America High and Rising Inflation in Argentina and Venezuela Percent change over a year ago f = IIF forecast

  8. Latin America Higher Commodity Prices Continue Strengthening Terms of Trade Percent change over a year ago Reuters commodity price index Terms of Trade (LHS) CommodityPrices (RHS) f = IIF forecast

  9. Latin America Capital Inflows Close to Record Levels $ billion f = IIF forecast

  10. Risk-adjusted Returns on Sovereign Bonds Have Risen… Latin America (EMBIG Latin, 30-day volatility)

  11. Latin America …and Bond Issuance has Increased $ billion f = IIF forecast

  12. Latin America Equity Investment is Leading Private Capital Inflows $ billion f = IIF forecast

  13. Currencies Have Appreciated Back Toward Pre-Crisis Levels Latin America (January 2007 = 100) *US$ / local currency

  14. Latin America Real Effective Exchange Rates Have Appreciated Even More Index 2000=100 f = IIF forecast

  15. Latin America Brazil: As Inflation has Increased REER has Appreciated Jan 2006=100percent change oya Inflation REER

  16. LATIN AMERICAInflationary Pressures Rising/Currencies Appreciating: To Tighten or not to Tighten? Carnegie International Economics Program February 16, 2011

More Related