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NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation— a NASA perspective

NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005. NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation— a NASA perspective. Matthew Garcia, Research Associate NASA-GSFC, Hydrological Sciences Branch (614.3) and UMBC GEST Center

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NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation— a NASA perspective

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  1. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NOAA-NWS Quantitative Precipitation Estimation—a NASA perspective Matthew Garcia, Research Associate NASA-GSFC, Hydrological Sciences Branch (614.3) and UMBC GEST Center with significant assistance from HSB members Christa Peters-Lidard, David Toll, Matt Rodell, Brian Cosgrove, Charles Alonge, and others…

  2. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NASA-GSFC Hydrological Sciences Branch Activities Observations Applications Modeling and Data Assimilation

  3. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 Water Management Energy Forecasting Aviation Safety Carbon Management Coastal Management Homeland Security Disaster Preparedness Public Health Agricultural Competitiveness Invasive Species Community Growth Air Quality NASA Applications of National Priority

  4. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 Scales of Interest Global (e.g. GLDAS): ~25-km resolution Continental (e.g. NLDAS): ~5-km resolution Regional (e.g. LIS): ~1-km resolution

  5. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NASA/GSFC GMAO NOAA NCEP NASA/GSFC Huffman ECMWF CMAP Merged Univ. AZ IR NOAA Stage-II from Gottschalck et al. (2005, J. Hydromet., submitted)

  6. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NLDAS Precipitation Fields: Spatial Interpolation and Temporal Disaggregation from Cosgrove et al. (2003, J. Geophys. Res.)

  7. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 from Cosgrove et al. (2003, J. Geophys. Res.)

  8. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NLDAS-E Precipitation Forcing – 15Z Dec 4, 2002 Stage II / CPC Merged (mm/hr) EDAS (mm/hr) CMORPH (mm/hr) CMAP (mm/hr)

  9. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 Observations Model output Assimilated output GLDAS Snow Updates: DA using MODIS Observations 21Z 17 January 2003 Enh. MODIS Snow Cover (%) Control Mosaic SWE (mm) Assim. Mosaic SWE (mm) SNOTEL/Co-op SWE (mm) Midwestern U.S. from Rodell and Houser, 2004

  10. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 LDAS Collaborations ECMWF Surface Soil Moisture Initialization in Coupled Land–Atmosphere Models Example 24-Hour Atmospheric Model Forecasts Buffalo Creek Basin With Realistic Soil Moisture Without Realistic Soil Moisture Observed Rainfall for Colorado Flood Event 0000Z to 0400Z 13 July 1996 (Chen et al., NCAR) • "The strong motivation for this land data assimilation and land-monitoring space mission such as Hydros is that the land states of soil moisture, soil ice, snowpack, and vegetation exert a strong control on ...the heating and moistening of the lower atmosphere…forecast of tomorrow's heat index, precipitation, and severe thunderstorm likelihood." • Louis Uccellini, NCEP • “The experience of the last ten years at ECMWF has shown the importance of soil moisture...Soil moisture is a major player on the quality of weather parameters such as precipitation, screen-level temperature and humidity and low-level clouds." • Anthony Hollingworth, ECMWF

  11. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 Satellite Precipitation Observation: TRMM to GPM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Single platform, multiple instruments, tropical coverage 10  85 GHz PMW radiometers (TMI) 13.6 GHz precipitation radar (PR) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Many platforms, multiple instruments, expanded coverage 10  109 GHz PMW radiometers (GMI) Dual-frequency precipitation radar (GPR) 3- to 6-hour temporal sampling Improved vertical resolution

  12. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 • DoD Future Combat System • Requirements for Soil Moisture • spatial resolution of 10-100 m • coverage area of 22,500 km2 • product delivery within 96 hours of request • soil moisture to depths of 15-30 cm • thematic accuracies of 80 percent • global applicability NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: USACE, USDA-ARS, UWy Army Remote Moisture System (ARMS)

  13. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 EOS-Terra Terra D. Boyle/DRI NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: US Bureau of Reclamation

  14. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NASA & Partner Research DST Partnership Opportunity Value & Benefits Observation Products & Platforms Topography: USGS, SRTM, GPS Vegetation: AVHRR, MODIS Weather: GOES, NPOESS Precipitation: TRMM, CMORPH, CMAP, PERSIANN, NEXRAD, NWS & cooperative gauges Snow Cover: MODIS, SNOTEL NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast System (RFS) Component Models: SAC-SMA(rainfall-runoff processes) SNOW-17(snow physical processes) Methods: Multi-sensor precipitation estimation Numerical integration Data assimilation & validation Evaluation Metrics: Flood stage Flood event spatial/temporal accuracy Flood warning skill and false-alarms Flash flood warning lead time Critical Processes: Snowmelt  Runoff conversion Rainfall  Runoff conversion Runoff routing Stream & river routing Critical Needs for Event Forecasting: Antecedent & evolving soil moisture Antecedent & evolving snow states NOAA Mission Goals & Activities Stream & river flow forecasting Agricultural efficiency Estuarine fisheries management Mudslide hazard forecasting Water quality forecasting NOAA/NWS Operational Products Flood watches & warnings Flash flood prediction & warning Disaster response Additional & Potential DST Benefits Model & DST validation NWS RFC forecaster efficiency Preparation for future datasets Distributed model development Weather Models & Tools Models: GMAO, NCEP, NCAR, ECMWF, AGRMET, SNODAS States: Cloud cover, Winds, Water Vapor, Temperature Fluxes: Radiation, Precipitation data assimilation methods NASA/GSFC Land Information System Models: CLM, VIC, Noah, Mosaic, SSiB, HySSiB, CLSM, SAC-SMA, SNOW-17 Methods: Numerical integration, Data assimilation & validation States: Surface temperature, Snow cover & depth, Soil temperature & moisture Fluxes: Evaporation, Transpiration, Precipitation, Runoff models states INPUTS & OUTPUTS OUTPUTS & OUTCOMES IMPACTS Figure 1: Proposed LIS-RFS Integrated Systems Solution architecture. NASA-GSFC HSB Partnership: NOAA-NWS Office of Hydrology

  15. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NASA-GSFC HSB Proposed Partnership: USGS and NOAA-NWS-NCEP/OH

  16. NOAA-NWS Next-Generation QPE (Q2) Science Workshop 28-30 June 2005 NASA’s interest in NOAA-NWS QPE/QPF Activities • Validation and application with non-traditional methods • LSM simulations • Data Assimilation • - Snow Cover • - Soil Moisture • - Surface Temperature • CONUS coverage is good, global coverage is better • 1-km (or better) gridded spatial resolution • 1-hour (or better) temporal resolution • Minimal product latency (for real-time applications) • Error propagation in land surface modeling • QPE process transparency • - Contribution sources - Validation datasets - Spatial and temporal error estimates - Bias correction factors - Adjustments in ZR retrieval - Objective and subjective products • QPF product availability • - Convective/stratiform discrimination • - Ensemble statistics (or member values)

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