Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood Winter 2008 February 21, 2008

2. Class News • A ctools site for all • AOSS 480 001 W08 • This is the official repository for lectures • Email climateaction@ctools.umich.edu • Class Web Site and Wiki • Climate Change: The Move to Action • Winter 2008 Term

3. Readings on Local Servers • Assigned • Eakin and Lemos: Building Adaptive Capacity in Latin America (Corrected link from previous lecture) • Of Interest • Antilla: Climate Skeptics and Press Coverage

4. Lectures coming up • http://www.snre.umich.edu/events Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game The Erb Speaker Series presents Peter Fusaro, of Global Change Associates: "Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game." Refreshments will be served. Date and Time: Wednesday, March 5, 2008 - 5:00pm to 6:30pm Location: Wyly 0750, 724 E. University, Ann Arbor, Michigan

5. PROJECTS • Project teams and subjects • An outline of project “form”

6. GOALS • To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a complex problem. • Purpose of the analysis • Inform an agency head, government official, a corporate manager so that a decision can be made. • Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan.

7. An interesting book for thinking about projects:(Example of process, deconstruction, …) Climate Change: Debating America’s Policy Options David Victor (2004) Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY 166 pages.

8. Previous projects • New Orleans and Sea Level Rise • New Orleans and post-Katrina Public Health • Great Lake Fisheries and Climate Change • Carbon Taxes and Carbon Markets • Role of World Trade Organization in Carbon Policy • Texas Coal Power Plants: CO2 and Public Health Costs

9. Byers, Brian ( byersbh ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Carey, Erin ( careyeb ) NRE 501 076 W08 Ervin, Joan ( ervinj ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Felt, Justin ( feltju ) NRE 501 076 W08 Fishman, Daniel ( dbfish ) NRE 501 076 W08 Horton, Daniel ( danethan ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Johns, Owen ( orjohns ) NRE 501 076 W08 Johnson, Jaclyn ( jackiejo ) NRE 501 076 W08 Knudson, Karla ( knudsonk ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Kosmyna, Eric ( ekoz ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Lorenz, Susan ( selorenz ) NRE 501 076 W08 Mack, Charlotte ( charmack ) NRE 501 076 W08 Oaida, Catalina ( oaidac ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Rabinsky, Mark ( rabinsky ) NRE 501 076 W08 Reed, David ( dereed ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Reed, Kevin ( kareed ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3 Schlichting, Eric ( eschlich ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Tawfik, Ahmed ( abtawfik ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3, Thoumi, Gabriel ( thoumi ) NRE 501 076 W08 Ullrich, Paul ( paullric ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3 Whitehead, Jared ( jaredwh ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3 Wurtzel, Jennifer ( jbwurtz ) AOSS 480 001 W08 Who are we?

10. Project 1 • Hybrid Bus, City-scale initiatives on energy and climate change. • eric • eric • brian

11. Project 2 • Safeway (corporate) response to California climate intiatives • Mark • Susan • Jen

12. Project 3 • Navajo Power Plants. Energy, economic development, environmental impact • Jackie • Charlotte • Erin

13. Project 4 • Carbon and energy. Integrating carbon into the energy institute • Kevin • Gabriel • Joan

14. Project 5 • Iron fertilization as a way to offset carbon • Daniel • Daniel • Justin • Carla

15. A Management Idea The first and largest improvements come from a plan, an approach to the problem, and identifying mistakes early This axis is ability to target cost, quality, time

16. Deconstructing how to think about projects. 4) What to do? Consequences? Options? 1) Describe: What is in the picture? What is known? What is not known? 2) Analysis: How credible is the information? What is the integrity of the reporting? How complete is the picture? Is there derived knowledge? 3) Does it matter? Impact. Consequences. Relations Why?

17. Projects • I want you to be aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy. • If you advocate, I want the advocacy clearly separated from what is known. • If you are pushing what you believe, I want you to be fully conscious of that.

18. Approaching Complex Problems • What are pieces of the problem? • Brain storming • Mind maps • Write down all of the things that you can think of associated with the problem • At this stage do not try to define the relationship between the pieces of the problem.

19. Consider heat waves and human health AUGUST FOOTBALL PRACTICE HEAT STRESS INDEX URBAN HEAT ISLAND 1995 COOLING CENTERS HOT WEATHER EMERGENCY ROOM ELDERLY GREEN ROOFS LINDA RONSTADT PARAMEDICS EXTREME HUMIDITY MEXICAN BORDER EXTREME DRYNESS CHILDREN ON PLAYGROUND HEART DISEASE FLAWS IN CURRENT SYSTEM 2003 CLIMATE CHANGE MARTHA AND THE VANDELLAS NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE

20. From the pieces of the problem • Look for organizing notions and concepts. A way to group things. • Function • Discipline, like climate, public health, etc. • Related behavior • The organization is not unique • A piece, like high heat, is likely a member of more than one group: physical climate, health threat, air quality, electrical demand • Avoid trying to make unique assignments of the pieces to groups.

21. Draw your first picture of elements of the problem HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) Policy ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATIONS Research and Validation

22. Think about the organization of the problem as a whole. • What are you trying to achieve? • In a complex problem all of the pieces can be brought together towards several possible conclusions. • What you are trying to achieve helps to define relationships between the pieces. It helps to set priorities

23. Heat Wave System: Basic elementsRethink your first picture. Start to separate your groups into roles. ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATIONS

24. Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS Policy Research and Validation ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION

25. Make that inventory of • What is known? • What is not known? • What do you believe? • What do you WANT to believe? • Where do you need more knowledge?

26. How do things flow through the system? ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS Policy Research and Validation ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION

27. How do you check? How does the system inform itself? ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e.g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS Policy Research and Validation ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION

28. Enough

29. Three basic types of information E3 G3 P3 E2 E4 G2 G4 P2 P4 E1 En G1 Gn P1 Pn Environmental Information Geographical Information Population Information EW CS VP1 VP2

30. Projects: Goals and Context • In school students often learn to work independently, in their field, but in jobs people are often thrown into teams • You are suddenly the “expert.” • Goals • How to define a tractable problem // reduce it to something you can do • Drawing a picture • How to separate the essence of a problem from the details • What do we know, what do we believe, what are we attached to? • What do the other participants really need – not what you think they need. • Check, How to Check • Communication • Complexity, sophistication, audience, context, naivety, dumbing down • How to explain what you are doing. • Balance, optimization

31. Projects • Bigger goals ... • How do we move this problem beyond polarized positions on details. • Move it from climate-policy, climate-business, climate-public health, climate-agriculture, climate-ecosystems, climate-...(interest advocacy groups) • to climate-business-policy-public health - ecosystems • How do we bring several communities together for the development of foundational solutions or at least strategies that make sense. • Systems, systems, systems

32. Projects • The point --- There is a complex problem, and there are a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking.)

33. Projects • Think of project in the following ways: • You work as a congressional staffer or an agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.

34. Projects • or think of project this way: • You are a small company of 3-5 people, working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy.

35. Projects • or maybe this way: • You work for a credit card company which for every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.

36. Projects • or even this way: • You are in the Michigan state government, and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.