Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood Winter 2008 January 10, 2008

2. Class News • There were issues with ctools • I still struggle with ctools for some reason • Class Web Site and Wiki • http://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • http://mapenvironment.org/wiki/index.php?title=Climate_Change:_Winter_2008 • An opportunityWilliam R. Farrand Public Lecture: Dramatic Changes in Earth's Polar Ice: Are We Waking Sleeping Giants?Friday, 1/18/2008; 07:30 PM to 09:00 PM    Lecture by Dr. Waleed Abdalati, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

3. Class News • Next Reading: Radiative Balance • Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005)Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1 • http://www.nap.edu/books/0309095069/html

4. Lecture Outline • The Challenge of Climate Change: Course skeleton • Scientific Investigation • Framework for response • Relationship to other problems • Foundation of ethical questions • Relationship to other problems • Causatives • Impacts • Scope • How do we infiltrate any response or solution throughout society • Scientific investigation climate change

5. What to do? What to do? • Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing observations of climate change, convincing predictions of climate change, and that we will need to respond to the climate change. • How do we organize this problem?

6. Scientific Investigation • With significant certainty we can say • The Earth will get warmer • Sea level will rise • The weather will change • The distribution and storage of water will change

7. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 It’s not an either / or argument. Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

8. A point or two • Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics. • A major one is the amount of time for them to be effective. • The very long time scales of the climate change problem mean that any advantages of controlling the increase of CO2 are perceived many years after the action to control the increase. • Cause and effect are difficult to evaluate • Cost and benefit are difficult to evaluate • Adaptation is far easier to evaluate.

9. Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things

10. Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY

11. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

12. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

13. Climate Change Relationships • Climate change is also linked to consumption. • The economy depends on us consuming • Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change/

14. Foundation of Ethical Questions • Contrast between rich and poor, haves and have nots. • Those who use energy are not those most impacted by climate change. • Those with wealth are more resilient, more adaptable. • Winners and losers in climate change? • Climate change versus the other challenges we face. • Our use of knowledge

15. Policy • What do we look to policy to accomplish? • From class discussion • Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or dis-incentives for behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.) • Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with penalties is the bounds are exceeded. • Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior of cost that is currently external. • A Rood abstraction • Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable and what is not. • Interface with the law? • Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances in which we run our economy.

16. What is the role of policy? • Does the climate problem follow from a failure of the U.S. or the world to develop policy? • From class discussion • It would be different, especially the role of the U.S. in the world. • Would not have mitigated the growth of CO2 • Many flaws in Kyoto • Enforcement • Specific goals • Sovereignty of nations and role of the U.N. • What is the state of policy? • Highly variable: local, regional, national, multi-national, etc.

17. Codify that economy-climate thing • SEC. 16__. SENSE OF THE SENATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE. (2005) • (a) Findings.—Congress finds that— • greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing average temperatures to rise at a rate outside the range of natural variability and are posing a substantial risk of rising sea-levels, altered patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts; • there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a substantial cause of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere; and • mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. • (b) Sense of the Senate.—It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that— • will not significantly harm the United States economy; and • will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.

18. Some challenges • If it was not clear when you woke up this morning, climate change touches every element of society. • It sits in relationship with some other fundamental societal challenges. • Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society. • What sort of things scale to all society?

19. Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs What are the pieces which we must consider?(what are the consequences) ...???... Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living POLICY ECONOMICS ENERGY RELIGION LAW SOCIAL JUSTICE “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

20. The Relationships are Different • The relationship of energy and energy policy with climate change is far different than, for example, the relationship of public health and agriculture. • Cause of climate change • Impacted by climate change • A community, like agriculture, also carries an independent relationship with energy and energy policy.

21. An idea I think is important • There are a class of problems, for instance, heat waves (public health), clean water, coastal erosion, etc. that are currently the result of policy, consumption-population stress, and economic stress on limited resources. Climate change often amplifies these problems, but climate change is not “the cause” of these problems.

22. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY WATER RESOURCES POPULATION CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURE SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION PUBLIC HEALTH

23. Challenge • It is a challenge, therefore, to bring together all of the elements of society towards a solution. • Is it possible?

24. The possibility of addressing the climate change challenge • One strategy is to integrate into our thinking, our culture, our behavior the value of the climate and the consequences of our decisions, and in particular, what is the cost of our energy and our water, and what happens with our waste.

25. The possibility of addressing the climate change challenge • What does bring us all together? • How do we ascribe value and valuation? • Our beliefs and belief systems link us strongly. • And stand at the foundation of our disagreements. • Our economies link us strongly. • Others ???

26. Law • Where does law fit into all of this?

27. Economies, markets • A leading policy mechanism is the carbon market. This would be a way to allow valuation of our climate and the treatment of our waste. • Markets are a way to provide an interface between all of the interested parties. • Requires participation in the market. • Requires a functioning market. • The most likely way to touch most elements of society? • How to develop a market?

28. Elements of environmental pollutant market F1A F2A FiA COST GAP FUEL SOURCES efficiency F2c Fic F1c SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS ENERGY PRODUCTION GDP . ABATEMENT A1 A2 Ai POLLUTANT

29. Elements of environmental pollutant market F1A F2A FiA COST GAP FUEL SOURCES efficiency F2c Fic F1c Common Unit of Transference Cost  $ SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS ENERGY PRODUCTION GDP . ABATEMENT A1 A2 Ai POLLUTANT

30. Elements of environmental pollutant market F1A F2A FiA COST GAP FUEL SOURCES efficiency F2c Fic F1c SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS ENERGY PRODUCTION GDP . ABATEMENT A1 A2 Ai POLLUTANT

31. Elements of environmental pollutant market F1A F2A FiA COST GAP FUEL SOURCES efficiency F2c Fic F1c SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS ENERGY PRODUCTION GDP Pacala and Socolow . ABATEMENT A1 A2 Ai POLLUTANT

32. Markets • It is not clear to me that the ingredients exist for a market. There are too few options. • Abatement? • Cost differential for fuel? • Valuation of efficiency? • The requirement of economic growth? • ...

33. That is the preface for the course. • Did you see yourself in this pass through the problem? • There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk away from it. • We will be required to manage the climate. • Do you see ways forward?

34. Scientific investigation of climate change • What is scientific investigation? • Some observational background:

35. Science Basis of Climate Change (1)

36. What is science, the scientific method? • Elements of the scientific method • Observations of some phenomenon. • Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, hypotheses. • In principle, hypotheses are testable: • Experiments: cause and effect • Prediction instead of experiments? • Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? • Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. • Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.

37. What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation • The results of scientific investigation is the generation of • Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints • Uncertainty: How sure are we about that specific piece of knowledge. • Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts • Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that that know is certain. • Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. • Theory is NOT conjecture • Theory is subject to change • Science requires validation • Requires the hypotheses and theories are testable • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.

38. Science, Scientific Method • Much of the rhetoric of the disputes about climate change is over what is science, scientific investigation, and arguments over • facts • theory • consensus • ... • Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results • But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

39. Science, Scientific Method • Consensus does not mean every one agrees with every thing. • If this were true, then the scientific method might be broken • or maybe we are dealing with facts. • The IPCC is a consensus report, and the core findings have be agreed on by the vast majority.

40. The Basics of Climate Change(Back to the Past)

41. The motivator: Increase of CO2(Keeling et al., 1996)

42. Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm) • Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores This has been extended back to > 700,000 years • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

43. It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age • There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm) Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

44. CO2 2100 460 ppm So what are we worried about? CO2 2005 360 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind • Temperature is expected to follow • New regimes of climate behavior? • Humans are adapted to current climate behavior. • The change is expected to happen rapidly (10 -100 years, not 1000’s)

45. What about the CO2 increase?

46. Class News • Next Reading: Radiative Balance • Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005)Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1 • http://www.nap.edu/books/0309095069/html