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Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?

Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?. Our mandate : a CFS upgrade in 2010 Our approach : a reanalysis and reforecast upgrade On the reanalysis, we propose to Use the coupled model to provide first guess Use the operational atmospheric data assimilation resolution

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Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?

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  1. Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?

  2. Our mandate : a CFS upgrade in 2010 • Our approach : a reanalysis and reforecast upgrade • On the reanalysis, we propose to • Use the coupled model to provide first guess • Use the operational atmospheric data assimilation resolution • Use MOM4 at .5 degree (developed in GFDL) • Use Global Land Data Assimilation (developed in EMC but funded by NCPO)

  3. Why T382? • We feel that the best initial condition is the best way to improve forecast • Potential for reforecast for short and medium range • It would also be the best forcing for the ocean data assimilation

  4. Group effort • Some of the work are internal supported • GFS model development • GSI improvement • More are externally supported • Satellite data ingest (JCSDA) • Land model and land data assimilation (NCPO) • Ocean model (NOAA GFDL) • Ocean data assimilation (NCPO) • MSU and SSU recalibration and corrections (NESDIS)

  5. Monitoring and archival • CPC and CTB have committed major resources to help with the monitoring and evaluation effort • NCDC is committed to archive and provide to the community the reanalysis data • NCAR wants to be a strong partner

  6. What do we want from the board? • EMC and NCPO management have given us full support. But are we doing it right? They want to know. • Is CFSRR the right thing to do? Are there cheaper alternatives? • Risk vs reward for • Coupled data assimilation • High resolution • Is the schedule reasonable? • What more preparation work should we be doing? • What products are important to other users of the reanalysis?

  7. Guess T382L64 Hourly Output Hourly 60 variables only from PGB file (.5x.5) 4 MB (1) Standard pressure GRIB (0.5x0.5) 155 MB Standard flux GRIB (Gaussian 1152x576) 70 MB (1) Radiation flux GRIB (Gaussian 1152x576) 60 MB (2) Per hour 140 MB Total for 1 day 140 x 24 = 3.36 GB

  8. Analysis T382L64 Atmospheric Output 6-hourly Prepbufr Analysis 30 MB (3) Data Dumps (for 26 Aug 2007) 895 MB (3) Sigma hybrid analysis (spectral) 228 MB (3) Surface analysis (Gaussian) 117 MB (3) Standard pressure GRIB (.5x.5) 155 MB (1) 3-D diagnostic model level GRIB 976 MB 3-D diagnostic pressure level GRIB (.5x.5) 454 MB (2) Isentropic diagnostic GRIB (.5x.5) 32 MB (2) Total 2.4 GB Total for 1 day 2.4 x 4 = 9.6 GB

  9. Analysis Ocean Output from MOM4 6-Hourly: Ocean Analysis GRIB (model grid) 400 MB (3) Ocean Analysis 1240 MB Ocean standard grid 200 MB Ocean standard grid GRIB (0.5 x 0.5) 20 MB (1) Total 600 GB Total for 1 day 0.6 x 4 = 2.4 GB

  10. 2-day T382L64 Coupled Forecast Output 6-hourly T382L64 Atmospheric : Standard pressure GRIB (1.0x1.0) 52 MB For one 2-day forecast 52 x 8 = 416 MB Total for 1 day of Reanalysis forecasts (4 cycles) 1.67 GB

  11. CFSRR Output Archive Needed for Hydrology Community: 318 Tb total • CFS reforecast:288.3 Tb • Atmosphere (standard 6-hourly grib 2.5 deg pressure file): 99.09 Tb • (7.7 Mb X 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members • Land (standard 6-hourly grib flux file): 124.83 Tb • (9.7 Mb x 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members • Ocean (standard daily grib 0.5 deg): 64.35 Tb • 20Mb/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members • Global Reanalysis: 30.1 Tb • Atmosphere (GDAS): 14.3 Tb • (standard 6-hourly grib 0.5 deg pressure file): 7.5 Tb • (155 Mb x 4)/day x 365 days x 33 years • (standard 3-hourly surface flux grib): 6.8 Tb • (70 Mb x 8)/day x 365 days x 33 years: • Land (GLDAS): 15.5 Tb • GLDAS hourly land surface forcing: 3 Tb • 10 Mb per hour times 24 hours/day x 365 days/year x 33 years • GLDAS 3-hourly land surface states and fluxes: 12.5 Tb • 130 Mb per 3-hours x 8 times daily x 365 days x 33 years • Ocean (GODAS): 0.3 Tb • Standard daily grib 0.5 deg: 20Mb/day x 366 days x 33 years

  12. REANALYSIS T62 OPERATIONS T382

  13. REANALYSIS T62 OPERATIONS T382

  14. REANALYSIS T62 OPERATIONS T382

  15. REANALYSIS T62 OPERATIONS T382

  16. REANALYSIS T62 OPERATIONS T382

  17. OPERATIONS SSI T382 REANALYSIS GSI T62

  18. 5 day forecast anomaly correlation Annual Mean (T62 atmosphere only)

  19. 5 day forecast anomaly correlation Annual Mean (T62 atmosphere only)

  20. 5 day forecast anomaly correlation for Jan

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