National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction Spring 2008 - COPC Meeting “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” FNMOC - Monterey, CA May 28, 2008 Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director

2. Overview NCEP Overview NCEP Strategic Plan Backup with AFWA NCOM Data Transfer from NAVO Model Update Building Update

3. NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NCEP Mission and Vision Mission EMC - Environmental Modeling Center HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center NCO - NCEP Central Operations CPC - Climate Prediction Center OPC - Ocean Prediction Center SPC – Storm Prediction Center SEC – Space Environment Center TPC – Tropical Prediction Center AWC – Aviation Weather Center CPC EMC HPC NCO OPC SEC AWC SPC TPC Vision The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

6. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models* North American Mesoscale Model Hours Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* • GFDL • WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control * Potential ensemble candidates

7. Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

8. Providing Ensemble Data NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) • Creating a high availability environment (24X7) within the NOAA WOC to serve as the distribution access point for all ensembles (Climate, NAEFS, SREF…) • EMC is providing an experimental version until high availability version goes live in August 2008. • Milestone                                                           Date                  Status Project Chartered 30 Sept 2007 Complete Integration Testing begins 30 April 2008 Started Performance Testing begins 19 May 2008 On Target Experimental Parallel Begins 15 June 2008 On Target Evaluation Survey Begins 15 July 2008 On Target NOMADS High Availability Live 15 August 2008 On Target

9. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

10. NCEP Production Suite Current - 2008 100 % GDAS NAM analysis FIRE GFS analysis HUR Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves SREF Percentage of Capacity GENS/NAEFS NAM GFS RDAS Air Quality RTOFS CFS 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

11. Reforecast SREF WAV HUR NAM CFS MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS Air Quality Hydro / NIDIS/FF Air Quality CFS & MFS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 100 % Rapid Refresh Percentage of Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

12. NCEP Strategic Planning Process • Phase I – Input Session (Employee/Stakeholder) • Employee Electronic Survey (12/18/07 – 1/10/08) • Employee Follow-Up Session, Including NWSEO (2/1/08) • Stakeholder Workshop (2/21/08) • Phase II – Plan Development • NCEP Leadership & Guests Workshop (3/19-20/08) • Build Off of the Employee Input Session • Phase III – Draft NCEP Strategic Plan Complete – (4/30/08) • Phase IV – Develop Strategic Vision and Multi-Year Implementation Plan for each NCEP Service and Mission Support Area – (To be completed by 9/30/08)

13. NCEP Strategic Plan (2009-2014) Customers and Partners Ensure the value, usability and relevance of NCEP products and services. Product and Service Suite Improve decision support capability to meet the widest spectrum of user needs. Access, Display and Delivery (or Information Systems) Enhance the real-time, on-time, all the time access, display and delivery of NCEP products and services. Science and Technology Accelerate science and technology infusion to enhance the value of NCEP guidance, analyses, forecasts and warnings over all spatial and temporal scales. People and Organization Culture Develop, value and sustain a highly skilled and flexible workforce that excels in service, teamwork and innovation. Business Processes Strengthen and integrate business processes that encourage innovation, manage change, promote efficiency, and hold individuals accountable for results at all levels. (or and accountability)

14. NCEP Backup w/ AFWA • 15th OWS at Scott AFB selected as AWC and SPC short-term backup provider • Switchover date - NLT 31 DEC 08 • Two time frames = two scenarios • Short-term / 0-24 hours / 15th OWS (Scott AFB, IL) • Long-term / 1-7 days / AFWA (Offutt AFB, NE) • SWPC backup w/ AFWA for satellite data is being worked. • Certification and accreditation issue

15. NCOM Data Transfer • NCEP now receiving NCOM model data from NAVO • Currents and Sea Surface Temps • US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico • US West Coast • Boundary conditions for local coastal modeling (NOAA/NOS) • Global Surface Currents • Backup for USCG SAR Ops • Hazmat response

16. FY08 Model Implementations • First Quarter • Multi-Grid Wave - completed • GSI Upgrade - Completed • SREF Alaska - Completed • RTMA Alaska - Completed (3rd Qtr) • NAEFS - Completed • CFS/GODAS - Completed • Second Quarter • NAM Bundle - completed • Ensembles for Olympics - Completed • Great Lakes Waves - Completed • RTMA Hawaii/Puerto Rico - Completed (3rd Qtr) • RUC - delayed to 4th Qtr

17. FY08 Model Implementations • Third Quarter • GFS Bundle • Fire Wx - on hold • GEFS Upgrade - moved to 4th Qtr • Wave Ensemble • HWRF • Fourth Quarter • EMC Verification Package • RTMA • NAM • SREF • GLDAS • AQF • Global Reanalysis

18. Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Research and Satellite Services OAR Air Resources Laboratory SSMC NCWCP

19. Building Update Approximately 270,000 ft2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting scientists Five NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory

20. Summary • NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers • Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs • ConOps NUOPC • Backup • Communications and data sharing • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist • Highest Priority Items: • Moving NCEP to new building while sustaining operations • will pose many challenges over the next year and a half.