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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 16, 2010

CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 16, 2010. Topics. Operations Update Summary 2010 Projected 2011 Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations Review of 24-Month Study 2010 Water Year Projections.

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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 16, 2010

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  1. CRFS Technical MeetingLC Operations UpdateNovember 16, 2010

  2. Topics • Operations Update • Summary 2010 • Projected 2011 • Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model

  3. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead OperationsReview of 24-Month Study 2010 Water Year Projections In 2010, the Equalization Elevation was 3642 ft.

  4. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead OperationsReview of 24-Month Study 2010 Water Year Projections In 2010, the Equalization Elevation was 3642 ft.

  5. 8.23 MAF Published April 2010 Projection for September 30, 2010 Apr-Jul Forecast =5.0 MAF (63% Average) Lake Mead Lake Powell 25.877 maf 24.322 maf 1,220 3,700 Equalization Elevation 3,642 3617.60 Feet 1,105 11.9 maf 1081.03 Feet 9.5 maf 3,575 0.0 maf 0.0 maf 3,370 895 1.9 maf 2.0 maf Dead Storage Dead Storage Not to Scale

  6. End of Water Year 2010 Lake Mead elevation end of WY 2009: 1083.81 feet • April 2010 24-Month Study projected end of WY elevation of 1081.03 feet • Downstream water use during WY2010 lower than expected • Due to winter storms and decreased irrigation demands, municipal users are conserving ICS credits in Lake Mead

  7. Lower Basin Side InflowsGlen Canyon to Hoover in WY/CY 20101 1Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the 24-month study2Percent of average was based on 5-year mean from 2005-2009

  8. Water Year 2011 Projected Operations • August 2010 Most Probable 24-Month Study projected Lake Mead elevation on Jan 1, 2010 to be 1086.38 feet • ICS Surplus Condition to govern Lake Mead operations • Mexico deliveries may be reduced

  9. Real Time Evaporation At Lake Mead • 5-Year cooperative project with the USGS • Measure and obtain hourly evaporation rates (and other parameters) from Lake Mead • Develop new monthly coefficients for use in long-term modeling efforts • Maintain program into the future

  10. Comparison to Evaporation Rates in 24 Month Study

  11. Impacts • Will reduce error associated with 24-Month Study side inflow to Lake Mead term • Since February, side inflows would have been lower than previously calculated • Lower Basin is actively working with CBRFC to forecast side inflows as well

  12. Development of New Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model Motivation is to better quantify range of uncertainty associated with mid-term operations forecasts Being developed by CADSWES graduate student in collaboration with Reclamation’s Modeling Work Group Developed in parallel with the 24-Month Study model Simulation horizon of 2-10 years Input is range of probable inflows First and part of second year based on CBRFC’s ESP forecasts On-going research to develop forecasting techniques beyond 2 years (being done by student developing model) Results expressed in probabilistic terms Target early 2011 for first version of completed model

  13. Lower Colorado River Operations For further information: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region

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