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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009

CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009. Topics. Operations Update Summary 2009 Projected 2010 Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations 24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections .

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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009

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  1. CRFS Technical MeetingLC Operations UpdateNovember 19, 2009

  2. Topics • Operations Update • Summary 2009 • Projected 2010 • Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model

  3. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections In 2009, the Equalization Elevation was 3639 ft.

  4. 8.23 MAF Published April 2009 Projection for September 30, 2009 Apr-Jul Forecast =7.2 MAF (91% Average) Lake Mead Lake Powell 25.877 maf 24.322 maf 1,220 3,700 Equalization Elevation 3,639 3637.1 Feet 1,105 11.9 maf 1092.0 Feet 9.5 maf 3,575 0.0 maf 0.0 maf 3,370 895 1.9 maf 2.0 maf Dead Storage Dead Storage Not to Scale

  5. DRAMA DRAMA DRAMA

  6. Lake Mead Recreation Area Operational Constraints Critical Elevations: • Callville Bay – 1095 feet • Temple Bar – 1090 feet • Echo Bay – 1080 feet Cross elevation 1095 feet in early June

  7. Mitigation • Engineering Approaches – Offered use of Reclamation equipment and engineering staff to dredge at Callville Bay and Boulder Harbor • Operational Approaches • Lower Lake Mohave to keep more water in Lake Mead during June and July • Request to LC water users to move diversions later in the water year • Request UC Water Operations to release more water out of Powell in June

  8. Mitigation Effort Outcomes • NPS used their own equipment and contractor for dredging work • CAP agreed to ‘stick to their schedule’ – risked $$$ giving up inexpensive power • UC agreed to release 40 KAF from Lake Powell during June 2009, previously scheduled for release in July and August 2009. • Lake Mead elevation on July 4, 2009: 1095.25 feet • Lake Mead crossed elevation 1095.0 feet on July 13, 2009

  9. End of Water Year 2009 Lake Mead elevation end of WY 2009: 1093.68 feet • April 2009 24-Month Study projected end of WY elevation of 1092.04 feet • Downstream water use during WY2009 lower than expected • Water use moved to end of calendar year, into WY2010 • Note – Intervening flows between Glen Canyon and Hoover were lower than projected – If water use had followed projections Mead would have ended lower than forecasted in the April 2009 24-Month Study!

  10. Lower Basin Side InflowsGlen Canyon to Hoover in WY/CY 20091 1Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the 24-month study2Percent of average was based on 5-year mean from 2004-2008

  11. Water Year 2010 Projected Operations • August 2009 Most Probable 24-Month Study projected Lake Mead elevation on Jan 1, 2010 to be 1098.47 feet • ICS Surplus Condition to govern Lake Mead operations

  12. Lower Colorado Region Operations

  13. Lower Colorado Region Operations

  14. Lower Colorado Region Operations

  15. Development of New Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model Motivation is to better quantify range of uncertainty associated with mid-term operations forecasts Being developed by CADSWES graduate student in collaboration with Reclamation’s Modeling Work Group Developed in parallel with the 24-Month Study model Simulation horizon of 2-10 years Input is range of probable inflows First and part of second year based on CBRFC’s ESP forecasts On-going research to develop forecasting techniques beyond 2 years (being done by student developing model) Results expressed in probabilistic terms Target Spring 2010 for first version of completed model

  16. Lower Colorado River Operations For further information: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region

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