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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Predictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability. G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul. Introduction. Atlantic ocean SST variability : AMO + North Atlantic Horseshoe
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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 HamburgPredictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul
Introduction • Atlantic ocean SST variability : AMO + North Atlantic Horseshoe • Are both pattern related? What are their influence on the European/American climate?
Data and methods • Data : • Atmosphere : 20CR-NOAA reanalysis (56 members) • SST : HadISST • Global warming influence removed : • SST : Regression over the global mean SST time series removed • Atmosphere : detrend
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO = low pass (10-yr) filtered North Atlantic SST AMO-proj = SST filtered with a ¼ ½ ¼ filtered projected onto AMO spatial pattern
North Atlantic Horseshoe SC R Such mode is found in all ensemble members (at least for OND) PDF for NAH significance in OND
Links horseshoe - AMO AMO-proj AMO-std
Non-stationarity Moving correlation between NAH and AMO using 20-yr window : Moving correlation between NAH and NAO in NDJ using 20-yr window :
Ongoing work • Remove remote influence of Indo-Pacific variability • Explain the non-stationary in the AMO-NAH links • Compare the relative influence of SST to that of snow cover and sea ice cover. • Focus also on the summer impacts of AMO
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu