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Mastering Weather Forecasting: Insights and Techniques

Learn the steps to forecasting weather from past data to future projections. Understand satellite imagery, radar observations, model forecasts, and ensemble methods. Dive into the science of atmospheric equations and model statistics with practical examples.

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Mastering Weather Forecasting: Insights and Techniques

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Forecasting the Weather Tom Robinson 9-27-2010

  2. Steps to Forecasting • Past • Present • Future

  3. Past • Satellites http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=ir • Previous Model Runs • Looking back on forecasts

  4. Current Weather • Observations http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/index.php?metarIds=KBRO&hoursStr=past+60+hours&std_trans=translated&num_metars=number&submit_metars=Retrieve • Model initialization • Radar http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php

  5. Model Forecasts • Equations of the Atmosphere • Step through time • Time steps based on distance scale • GFS – 27km horizontal, 64 layers • NAM – 12km horizontal, 60 layers

  6. Ensembles • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.html • 21 models combined • Mean Spread http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/mean_surface_prs.html • Spaghetti http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/spag_t2m.html • Probability http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/web_js/html/prob_t2m.html

  7. Model Output Statistics (MOS) • 2 years of data • Model bias accounted for • How to read MOS http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/redmav.htm • Actual MOS (KBRO) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBRO

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