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U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006

U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006. Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22-26, 2007. Morristown, TN, Sep. 12, 2007. Georgia gets tough on water use!. Outline. Current Drought and 12-month Evolution

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U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006

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  1. U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006 Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22-26, 2007 Morristown, TN, Sep. 12, 2007

  2. Georgia gets tough on water use!

  3. Outline • Current Drought and 12-month Evolution • Drought in Historical Perspective • Selected Drought Impacts • Current Drought Outlook • Recent Changes to the Outlook • Some ideas for future Outlooks

  4. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor

  5. Year-to-Date Drought Change: Wetness Plains Book-ended by Droughts West and East

  6. October vs April Drought

  7. Winter Percent of Normal Precipitation Downtown Los Angeles had driest “rain season” since at least 1877: 3.21 in., 21% of normal.

  8. Western Snowpack 2007 vs 2006

  9. Streamflow Forecasts 2007 vs 2006

  10. Spring-Summer Changes

  11. Fires Spread Dramatically Across the West in July

  12. Mid-Atlantic Drought Worsens Sep-Oct 5 Maryland wells at Record lows mid-October Record 34 days without measurable rain at DCA thru October 18, 2007 Charles County well sets record

  13. Southeast Virginia: Little Creek Reservoir near Newport NewsOctober 15, 2007 Photo by Don Aspinall

  14. Historical Drought in Alabama One of 2 worst droughts past 50 years http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/sep/Reg001Dv00_palm06_01000907_pg.gif

  15. Georgia Drought

  16. Lake LanierOctober, 2007 90-day supply left for Atlanta?

  17. Tennessee Drought Worst in over 50 yrs.

  18. Cherokee Lake in E. Tennessee Sep 12, 2007 Photo by Brian Boyd

  19. North Carolina Drought 2nd worst in over 50 years Driest May-Sep

  20. Kentucky Drought 2nd worst in over 50 yrs

  21. Rankings http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/sep/national.html

  22. Lake Okeechobee Drops to New Lows Levels remain ~ 5 feet lower than normal in October 2007

  23. Selected Drought Impacts to Crops in the Southeast • Corn Yield vs 2006 • Virginia -33% • Maryland -40% • North Carolina -33% • Tennessee -15% • Kentucky -15% • Alabama +1% • Georgia +5% • Peanut Yields vs 2006 • Virginia -37% • North Carolina -25% • Georgia +6%

  24. The Seasonal Drought Outlooks

  25. Last Night’s 5-Day QPF

  26. One Week Soil Moisture Forecast

  27. Recent Changes • Began twice/month schedule (1st and 3rd Thursday) • Expanding CPC authors • Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)

  28. Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007

  29. Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts Long-term mean = 13%

  30. Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC • Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public a. Consider adding monthly forecasts b. Consider adding probability information to map • Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users) a. Drought probabilities (soil moisture, runoff, drought indices) at some point in the future b. Probabilities for change c. Consider NIDIS goals d. Climate Test Bed products to contribute

  31. One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast

  32. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtmlhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml University of Washington Forecasts

  33. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)

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