Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

1. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future Presentation for Visioning Day October 30th, 2009 Office Of Institutional Research and Planning

2. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future For Planning purposes data can help you do three things Set goals by identifying trends, problems, strengths, opportunities Inform Strategies by understanding the cause of problems or logistical considerations Evaluate progress and make corrections

3. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future But data is just small part. While data-jockeying is important it’s the syntheses, analysis, application and evaluation of data and information that is at the core of what we need to do.

4. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future • External: • Demographic/workforce forecasts • K-12 trends • UC/CSU trends • Public perceptions of Higher Education

5. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future • Internal • Student Demographics • Student Preparation • Student Success and Learning

6. Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future • Shifting Forces • Workforce/Skills Gap • Economy (short and long term) • Funding and Legislation • Sustainability • Increased Diversity • Globalism • Changes in the Nature of Learning and the Millennial generation

7. External: Demographics Population Growth

8. External: Demographics Source: EMSI data

9. External: Labor/Jobs Growth

10. External: Labor Source: EMSI data

11. External: Labor Source: EMSI data

12. External: k-12 trends • College Going rates • Statewide it’s decreasing-locally it’s higher • Increased Gap between haves and have nots (achievement Gap) • Exit exam • Increased ESL population • Math: • Algebra in 8th grade

13. External: k-12 trends • Concerns over Curriculum gap between high school and College • Cal-Pass research shows students often repeat course in college they already took in high school • This may partly explain why it seems that so many high school graduates are unprepared for college level work.

14. External: k-12 Source: California Department of Education

15. External: k-12 Source: CLPCCD Institutional Data Base

16. Internal: Local High Schools

17. External: UC/CSU • Less capacity/budget cuts • More competition • Higher fees

18. External: Public Perception (Clarus Report) • Market Assessment Report (March 2007) • The name and existence of LPC is well known • 55% of LPC service area would consider attending LPC • Considered convenient and affordable • Generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge

19. External: Public Perception (Campus Commons Report) • Public • Feel a college education is necessary and fear that increasing costs make college out of reach • Support of high education is contingent on maintaining access • Growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money

20. External: Summary • Demographic • Continued growth and increased diversity • Workforce • Increase in jobs outpace growth in population • Healthcare, technology, business/finance • Must anticipate areas of growth and be nimble enough to quickly respond to needs

21. External: Summary • K-12 trends • We draw students for all over…not just our local high schools • Almost half of local high school graduates attend LPC • Must understand and respond to trends such as achievement gap, differences curriculum and student preparation • Public Perceptions of Higher Education/LPC • In general, growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money. • LPC is generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge LPC

22. Internal: Demographics

23. Internal: Demographics

24. Internal: Demographics

25. Internal: Demographics

26. Internal: Demographics

27. Internal: Demographics

28. Internal: Demographics • Growth in enrollment • Traditional college students (full-time, young, goal to transfer, never attended college) • Increasing racial/ethnic diversity (Asian and Hispanic populations)

29. Internal: Student Preparation

30. Internal: Student Preparation

31. Internal: Student Preparation • Increase in number and proportion of students who require basic skills courses in English and Math (and study skills) • Simultaneous increase in students who have high education goals and expect academic rigor in preparation for transfer

32. Internal: Success and Leaning -Transfers

33. Internal: Success and Learning-IncomeIncrease in Personal Income After Graduating from a CCC in 2000-01 Source: ARCC Report www.cccco.edu

34. Internal: Student Success and Learning • Core Competencies • Communication • Critical Thinking • Creativity and Aesthetics • Respect and Responsibility • Technology Measured in a number of ways including in- class assessments and Student Self reports

35. Internal: Student Success and Learning 1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger

36. Internal: Student Success and Learning 1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger

37. Internal: Summary • Student Demographics • LPC has a large proportion of “traditional” students (young, transfer directed, full-time) • Student Preparation • High school students expect high quality education for transfer and workforce training • But also need remedial academic and leaning skills support

38. Internal: Summary • Student Success and Learning • Graduating from a CCC greatly increases earnings. • Student report greatest gains is a broad mix of outcomes that range from academic to affective • As with highest gains, lowest gain is a broad mix of academic and affective outcomes. Many of the outcomes concerned with civic engagement and societal contribution are areas in which students report fewer gains.

39. Shifting Forces: Workforce Gap • Gap of workers qualified and experienced to replace baby boomers • Over supply of workers for the number of low skilled jobs • Both a demographic and educational trend

40. Shifting Forces: Economy- Short Term • Slow recovery • Lag in creation of jobs (Latest UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts double- digit unemployment until end of 2011)

41. Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term • Recovery vs. Reset • Breaking the law: Okun’s law • Growth alone wont save us because the “lost” jobs are not coming back • Long term and profound changes in • Home ownership, consumer spending/saving, availability of credit, investment, business start-ups (which are the first source of new jobs)

42. Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term • Recovery vs. Reset • Different types of jobs/skills • Longer term training for higher skills jobs • Need to shift away from quick in and out training programs • Not so much a “labor” gap; more of a skills gap

43. Shifting Forces: Funding/Legislation • Decreased funding* • Unreliable funding unless major changes to constitution • Term limits • 2/3 budget • Redistricting • Unfunded mandates

44. Shifting Forces: Increased Accountability • WASC (Western Association of Schools and Colleges) • ARCC (Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges) • Increased public scrutiny/sophistication and questioning • Less focus on process and more focus on outcomes and results

45. Shifting Forces: Sustainability • Three Bottom Lines

46. Shifting Forces: Sustainability Processes/ Human Resources -sustainable processes -hiring the proper number of support staff -Prioritizing initiatives Education -certificates -degrees -transfer programs -Infuse sustainable ideas into curriculum Practices/ Operations -drinking fountains -recycling -building design -solar electric

47. Shifting Forces: Increased Diversity • Getting Beyond “Quotas” thinking • Getting beyond “meeting the needs of diverse populations” • Transforming who we are and what we do • Essential workplace/life skill for ourselves and our students

48. Shifting Forces: Globalism • Increased competition • Increased need for ability to understand different perspectives • Delivery methods • Ability to adapt, change and learning on own

49. Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning Traditional • Instructor provides Information • Student responsible for mastery Millenial • Students have access to information • Students expect instructor to help them master the information Instructor as source of information Instructor as learning coach

50. Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning Instructor is valued as source of information Instructor valued as learning coach What would this mean for professional development, delivery methods, curriculum, pedagogy, classroom management?