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A Model for Joint Choice of Airport and Ground Access Mode

Session 14: Hot and Cool Topics in Travel Modeling. A Model for Joint Choice of Airport and Ground Access Mode. 11th National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida. Surabhi Gupta, Peter Vovsha and Robert Donnelly.

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A Model for Joint Choice of Airport and Ground Access Mode

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  1. Session 14: Hot and Cool Topics in Travel Modeling A Model for Joint Choice of Airport and Ground Access Mode 11th National Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceMay 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida Surabhi Gupta, Peter Vovsha and Robert Donnelly

  2. Motivation for Focus on Air Passenger Demand • Problem: Regional Models lack capability to analyze changes to airports and/or ground access modes • How are airports typically treated in a regional model? • Employment Centers (for work trips) • Special Generator type estimation (for non-work trips) • Distortions for sub-areas adjacent to airports • Distinctive characteristics of trips to/from airport • Different from everyday activities • Market includes non-residents/visitors • Higher willingness to pay for some segments

  3. FAA Regional Airport Study: Phase I • Preliminary Joint Airport Choice and Mode of Access model developed and tested for NY Region • Developed in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for a possible subsequent more intensive phase of air passenger demand analysis, and to • Provide an initial modeling tool for air passenger demand analysis with respect to airport operations, aviation service measures and pricing, and ground access characteristics • Estimation: • Air Passenger Survey – 2005 • NY BPM travel time and costs (approximate) • Airport service and cost attributes (limited)

  4. Literature Review • Pels et al.(1998) • Airport-Access mode- Airline NL model • Business vs leisure • Hess and Polak • Airport Choice (2005) - Business vs Leisure, Resident vs Visitor • Airport-Airline-Access mode (2004) – Business travelers only • Basar and Bhat (2004) • MNL vs PCMNL model for airport choice

  5. FAA Regional Study - 9 Airports • John F Kennedy (JFK) • La Guardia (LGA) • Newark Liberty Int’l (EWR) • Long Island MacArthur (ISP) • Westchester County (HPN) • Stewart Int’l (SWF) • Trenton Mercer (TTN) • Atlantic City Int’l (ACY) • Lehigh Valley Int’l (ABE)

  6. Auto Drop Off/ Pick up Auto Park Taxi Cabs Local Bus Shared Van Rail Transit Rental Car Chartered Bus 8 Ground Access Modes

  7. Model Structure • Nested Logit Model • Upper Level- Airport • Lower Level – Access Mode • Nesting Coefficient <1 could not be estimated • 72 alternatives = 9 airports x 8 access modes, out of which 68 are available and 65 were observed • Explanatory Variables • Airport Characteristics – size, domestic yield, delays, gauge, river crossings, distance, access mode logsum .. • Access Mode Characteristics – travel time, cost, parking cost, income, age, gender, group size

  8. Variables Used  Compared with other models

  9. Travel Purpose Business Non Business Destination International Domestic Traveler Resident Visitor Full Segmentation Behavioral differences Partial Segmentation US Market is price comparable Domestic travel distances are comparable to international Partial Segmentation Restricted choice sets Fundamental behavior is similar (every passenger is both) Air Passenger Segmentation

  10. Estimation Results: Airport Choice

  11. Estimation Results: Access Mode Choice

  12. Value of Time Estimates • Airport- Ground Access Choice Model (2005) • Business: $62.6/hr • Non-Business: $41.0/hr • NYMTC Regional Model (1997) • Commuter: $15.8/hr • Non-Commuter: $10-$12/hr • Confirmation from other research (business): • Hess & Polak, 1995 ($93-$155/hr) • Pels Nijkamp & Rietveld, 1995 ($120-$170/hr) • Furuichi & Koppelman, 1994 ($72.6/hr)

  13. Summary of Behavioral Observations *For Non-business trips only Auto Drop-off/Pick-up is Reference point

  14. Impact of Income • Low income groups (< 60K) • Less likely - Taxis, Rental cars, Auto park • Non-Availability of car or higher travel costs • Prefer public transportation (rail and bus) • High income groups (>140 K) • Prefer Taxis • Less likely to use Shared Ride, Local Buses • Also prefer Auto Park, Rental Cars, Rail transit for Non-business trips

  15. Future Development • The model has been applied as a sample enumeration model, meaning it adjusts (or “pivots-off”) observed or baseline forecast shares based on changes to either the ground access or the airport measures for a given planning scenario. • The preliminary model has demonstrated the utility of a joint airport choice and mode of access analysis for airport ground access and operations planning • Possible further development in subsequent planning phases, including: • Development of additional airport related measures of capacity, service, and costs • Refinement in network (skim) ground access travel times and costs • Re-estimation of the model with these added variables • Incorporate model as a Special Generator in the Regional NY Model

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