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Amos P. K. Tai (With Loretta Mickley , Colette Heald, Shiliang Wu )

Effect of CO 2 Inhibition of Isoprene Emission Air q uality u nder 2000-2050 changes in climate, vegetation and land use. Amos P. K. Tai (With Loretta Mickley , Colette Heald, Shiliang Wu ) 6 th International GEOS- Chem Users’ Meeting May 7, 2013.

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Amos P. K. Tai (With Loretta Mickley , Colette Heald, Shiliang Wu )

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  1. Effect of CO2 Inhibition of Isoprene EmissionAir quality under 2000-2050 changes in climate, vegetation and land use Amos P. K. Tai (With Loretta Mickley, Colette Heald, Shiliang Wu) 6th International GEOS-Chem Users’ Meeting May 7, 2013

  2. Climate Change Will Worsen Ozone Air Quality • Ozone air quality will worsen by +1-10 ppbv in polluted (high-NOx) regions by 2050, driven mainly by higher temperature • At least half of such sensitivity is driven by increased isoprene emission in warmer climate high NOx Isoprene ozone • But recent studies suggest higher CO2 levels may inhibit isoprene production in plants, at least partially offsetting increases due to warming

  3. Elevated CO2 Inhibits Isoprene Emission Observations of leaf isoprene emission at different ambient CO2 levels 3 [Possell & Hewitt 2011] • Isoprene emission is suppressed at elevated CO2 levels Normalized isoprene emission • Revise 2000-to-2050 ozone projections by incorporating this effect in MEGAN in GEOS-Chem: Present-day level 2 2050 level 1 -30% 0 400 800 1200 CO2 concentration (ppmv) GCAP: GISS climate 2050 A1B emissions and land use GEOS-Chem LPJ vegetation

  4. CO2 Effect Reduces Ozone Sensitivity to Climate Change 2000-to-2050 change in surface ozone (MDA8) due to climate change alone [Tai et al. submitted] • Original projected ozone increase due to climate change: +6 ppbv max. • With CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission: +3 ppbv max. • Ozone sensitivity to changes in climate (and natural vegetation) is reduced by >50% Without CO2 effect With CO2 effect With minus without

  5. Land Use Change Can Become Key Ozone Driver 2000-to-2050 (A1B) changes in surface ozone Climate change effect Land use change effect • Land use change can offset or reverse in sign the effect of climate change on ozone air quality • Land use change can become key driver of ozone that can offset or enhance anthropogenic emissions control efforts Anthropogenic emissions change: -5 ppbv -2 ppbv +30 ppbv +30 ppbv East US: West Europe: India: Southeast Asia: +2 ppbv +2 ppbv no change no change -3 ppbv -1 ppbv +2 ppbv +5 ppbv

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