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The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT?

The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT?. What does an 8 °C (14.4 °F) rise in annual average temperature mean to a resource manager? THAT DEPENDS …. Ecosystem Response Models – linking climate projections to the needs of resource managers. Hydrology.

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The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT?

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  1. The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT? What does an 8°C (14.4 °F) rise in annual average temperature mean to a resource manager? THAT DEPENDS….

  2. Ecosystem Response Models – linking climate projections to the needs of resource managers Hydrology Habitat & Species Vulnerability Climate Conservation Action Permafrost Disturbance Vegetation

  3. Conceptual Model

  4. Downscaled GCM Data ALFRESCO GIPL-1 Soil Thermal Properties DOS-TEM Vegetation type Moss & Organics Soil moisture Burned area Veg. canopy Fire Severity

  5. Permafrost Ground Ice

  6. 2000 - 2009 Permafrost Model Alone 2090 - 2099 2050 - 2059 Mean Annual Soil Temperature – 1 m Depth

  7. Charring Boreal Forest Forecast • Driven by GCM outputs of CCCMA-CGCM3.1 (CCCMA) and MPI ECHAM5 models (ECHAM5) ,A1B emissions scenario.

  8. Pilot Year : Completed in January 2012 • Identified and obtained all variables needed to drive and couple the individual models • How to modify outputs from one model so that they are meaningful to another model • How to downscale driving variables • How to compare similar output variables between models to understand differences and/or uncertainties in these outputs

  9. Phase II Objectives:4-year Plan 1) Model coupling To develop and apply a fully synchronous coupled model over the Western Arctic integrating important components of an ecosystem model for Alaska including:fire, vegetation succession and permafrost dynamics • 2) Tundra fire and treeline dynamics To evaluate, test and incorporate tundra fire and treeline and shrub dynamics into the Alaska IEM 3) Thermokarst dynamics To develop a conceptual model of thermokarst dynamics at a landscape scale and to evaluate, test and incorporate thermokarst dynamics into the Alaska IEM • 4) Wetland dynamics To design wetland field dynamics program to support the Alaska IEM and develop, evaluate, test and incorporate wetland dynamics into the Alaska IEM

  10. Domain and Scale

  11. Links to Management Animal Performance Models Fire Management Models Hypothetical Model Other Stakeholder Groups Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Impact Models modeoutput x modeloutputy Conservation & Resource Management Decisions canopy cover thermokarst Habitat Change Models species composition probabilityof fire vegetation cover probability of fire surface hydrology vegetation cover biomass productivity surface hydrology

  12. Collaboration Across Disciplines Terrestrial Ecology Ecosystem Modeling Fire Science Programming Hydrology Remote Sensing Geophysics DataManagement

  13. Collaboration Across Organizations • Academic departments • Alaska Climate Science Center • Arctic LCC • Western Alaska LCC

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