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Building Core Concepts with Computational Software

Building Core Concepts with Computational Software. Robert H. Carver Stonehill College Easton MA. August 9, 2004. Population Sample Variation Observation vs. Experiment Cross-section vs. longitudinal data Comparison Standardization Probability “Random” Random sampling “Error”.

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Building Core Concepts with Computational Software

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  1. Building Core Concepts with Computational Software Robert H. Carver Stonehill College Easton MA August 9, 2004

  2. Population Sample Variation Observation vs. Experiment Cross-section vs. longitudinal data Comparison Standardization Probability “Random” Random sampling “Error” Sampling error Statistical control Confidence Distribution Null hypothesis Association Causation Statistical significance vs. Practical significance Power Model Core Concept Candidates JSM Toronto Session 154

  3. Concepts for this segment • Variation • Statistical control • Sampling Error JSM Toronto Session 154

  4. ASQ on Statistical Thinking • All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes • Variation exists in all processes • Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success JSM Toronto Session 154

  5. A tale of continuous improvement… Wright 1904 Flyer over Huffman Prairie, Dayton OH JSM Toronto Session 154

  6. Wilbur Wright on Control, 1901 “This inability to balance and steer still confronts students of the flying problem…. “When this one feature has been worked out, the age of flying machines will have arrived, for all other difficulties are of minor importance.” JSM Toronto Session 154

  7. Variation: What’s up with that? JSM Toronto Session 154

  8. Mean flight velocity JSM Toronto Session 154

  9. Shape—velocity & distance JSM Toronto Session 154

  10. Comparison: assignable cause? JSM Toronto Session 154

  11. Comparison: assignable cause? JSM Toronto Session 154

  12. Control & shrinking variation JSM Toronto Session 154

  13. Control JSM Toronto Session 154

  14. Developing a feel for Sampling Error JSM Toronto Session 154

  15. Developing a feel for Sampling Error One-Sample T: Samp1, Samp2, Samp3, Samp4, Samp5, Samp6, Samp7, ... Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI Samp1 10 26.1458 7.0527 2.2303 (21.1006, 31.1910) Samp2 10 30.8669 16.0146 5.0643 (19.4107, 42.3231) Samp3 10 23.8366 8.6156 2.7245 (17.6734, 29.9998) Samp4 10 31.1267 7.6951 2.4334 (25.6220, 36.6315) Samp5 10 28.7766 8.6148 2.7242 (22.6139, 34.9393) Samp6 10 28.3671 8.2640 2.6133 (22.4554, 34.2788) Samp7 10 22.2507 9.6897 3.0642 (15.3191, 29.1823) Samp8 10 29.3899 7.5919 2.4008 (23.9590, 34.8208) Samp9 10 28.8168 11.0398 3.4911 (20.9194, 36.7142) Samp10 10 31.1217 22.3381 7.0639 (15.1420, 47.1014) JSM Toronto Session 154

  16. Guiding Principles • Focus on reading the story in the data • Rely on software to facilitate building the concepts • Quick, interactive analysis to seize teachable moments • Demonstration, discovery, iteration JSM Toronto Session 154

  17. Sources American Statistical Association (2004). Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs in Statistical Science. https://www.amstat.org/education Fisher, R.A. (1966). The Design of Experiments. (New York: Hafner) Garfield, J., Hogg, R., Schau, C., & Whittinghill, D. (2000). “Best Practices in Introductory Statistics,” draft position paper prepared for JSM 2000. Hoerl, R.W. & Snee, R.D. (2002). Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance. (Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury) Jakab, P.L. & Young, R., eds. (2000). The Published Writings of Wilbur and Orville Wright. (Washington DC: Smithsonian) Kugler, C., Hagen, J. & Singer, F. (2003). “Teaching Statistical Thinking.” Journal of College Science Teaching, v32, No. 7, 434-439. McCarthy, P.J. (1957). Introduction to Statistical Reasoning (New York, McGraw-Hill) Moore, D.S. (1997). Statistics: Concepts and Controversies, 4th Ed. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Phillips, J. L. Jr. (1992). How to think about statistics. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Salsburg, D. (2002). The Lady Tasting Tea. (New York: Owl Books) Tukey, J.W. (1971). Exploratory Data Analysis. (Reading MA: Addison Wesley). U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission (2003). Flight log: Huffman prairie, 1904. http://www.centennialofflight.gov/chrono/log/1904HuffmanPrairie.htm Utts, J. M. )1999). Seeing Through Statistics, 2nd Ed. (Pacific Grove CA: Duxbury) Wallis, W. A. & Roberts, H. V. (1956). Statististics: A New Approach. (New York, Free Press.) Wright Redux Association (2001). Wright history. The Wright redux association. http://www.wrightredux.org/index.cfm?page=5 JSM Toronto Session 154

  18. Contact Information • Robert H. Carver Dept. of Business Administration Stonehill College Easton MA 02357 e-mail: rcarver@stonehill.edu • Copies of slides and dataset available (after JSM) at: http://faculty.stonehill.edu/rcarver/index.htm JSM Toronto Session 154

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