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Overview of operational NWP systems at the Canadian Meteorological Center

Overview of operational NWP systems at the Canadian Meteorological Center. Donald Talbot Chief of Meteorological Systems Section, CMC SAAWSO Project Workshop St. John’s, April 23rd, 2013. Context of the evolution of NWP systems. Continuing increase in demand for NWP outputs and products

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Overview of operational NWP systems at the Canadian Meteorological Center

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  1. Overview of operational NWP systems at the Canadian Meteorological Center Donald Talbot Chief of Meteorological Systems Section, CMC SAAWSO Project Workshop St. John’s, April 23rd, 2013

  2. Context of the evolution of NWP systems • Continuing increase in demand for NWP outputs and products • Increasing use of probabilistic products • Increasing need for better integrated environmental information to support decision-making: • Mitigate increasing vulnerability of society, economy and infrastructure in face of increasing severity & occurrence of high impact events such as severe weather and pollution episodes • Know the risks and adapt to a changing climate (extreme weather, development of the North, etc…) • Maximize efficiency of economy and operations • Support sustainable use and development of natural resource

  3. Context of the evolution of NWP systems (cont’d) • Role of the forecaster…Need to optimize the use of NWP in the operational process…. How to best integrate with the tools (Ninjo…)… • Integrated multidisciplinary approach to environmental prediction • coupled atmosphere-ocean-ecosystem (whole-earth simulation), air quality (chemistry) • Broadening of applications • emergency response, ecosystem, agriculture, forestry, health, energy, transport • products and services related to multi-hazards environmental alerting platforms • Optimization of technological transfer process

  4. Strong linkages: Research, Development, Operations Research NWP + Data Assimilation + Air Quality + Cloud Physics + Climate Research + Technology Transfer Including National Labs…. CMC Development IT Development + Transfer to Ops. CMC Operations Clients (internal + external)

  5. Historical HPC evolution and forecast quality at CMC GEM glob P7 GEM glob res. 33km res. 100km P5 P4 SPEC glob res. 160km SPEC Hem res. 350km Model calculation w.r.t 1976 (red curve) Mflops (black curve) SPEC Hem res. 789 km IBM NEC Cray CDC

  6. GEM is the core model for many EC’s applications Modeling systems running onEC supercomputer GEM GEM GEM GEM GEM GEM GEM GCM & GEM

  7. Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts • Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) • Implemented in Operations in December 2011…. • 1-tier system -> two atmosphere-ocean-ice coupled systems • - CCCma’s CanCM3 = AGCM3 (T63/L31) + OGCM4  10 members • - CCCma’s CanCM4 = AGCM4(T63/L35) + OGCM4  10 members • 20 Assimilation & forecast streams • CanSIPS recently joined the US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in a research partnership about Seasonal Forecast • This will lead to a future Operational North American Seasonal Forecast System similarly to the NAEFS partnership

  8. Global NWP Systems • Global Deterministic Prediction System • 4DVarData Assimilation, over 6-hour windows • 25 km horizontal resolution, 80 levels • 12Z run to day 6, and 10-day 00Z run • Global Ensemble Prediction System • Ensemble Kalman FilterData Assimilation, over 6-hour windows • 192 analysis • 16-day ensemble forecast, 2x per day, 20 members 66 km resolution • North American Ensemble Forecast System…. • Set of surface analysis produced daily: • Snowpack thickness, • Ice coverage, • Sea Surface Temperature, • Land Surface temperature, • CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis )…

  9. Verification against radiosondes500hPa Geopotential, 120 hours

  10. Yin-Yang grid Very good scaling; no pole problem Operational in early 2014 at 15 km resolution on 75 P7 nodes (2400 cores) => Global 240-h forecast in about 1h Icosahedra grid Scaling even better than Yin-Yang grid Future: new modeling approaches • - Each piece is regular Lat/Lon grid • - Global forecast obtained by 2-way coupling of 2 LAM models • Coupling done simultaneously at the solver level of both grids => no blending/relaxation of the two solutions needed

  11. Global NWP Systems: short term planned improvements Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) : Yin-Yang grid at 15km, En-Var, more observations, CALDAS (impl toward jan 2014)

  12. Global NWP Systems • Global Deterministic Prediction System • 4DVarData Assimilation, over 6-hour windows • 25 km horizontal resolution, 80 levels • 12Z run to day 6, and 10-day 00Z run • Global Ensemble Prediction System • Ensemble Kalman FilterData Assimilation, over 6-hour windows • 192 analysis • 16-day ensemble forecast, 2x per day, 20 members 66 km resolution • North American Ensemble Forecast System…. • Set of surface analysis produced daily: • Snowpack thickness, • Ice coverage, • Sea Surface Temperature, • Land Surface temperature, • CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis )…

  13. Verification GLB – GFS - GEPS 26/00z run forecast 120h • Sandy was captured too late, so too far north by the upper trough accordingly to this GLB run. The 26/00z GLB was rerun with more assimilated data which lead to a better result.

  14. Global NWP Systems : NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) • Global ensembles: • NOAA, MSC, NHMS of Mexico: since 2004. • Data exchange in Real-time Operation mode since 2006 • FNMOC (US NAVY) may join NAEFS in 2012-13. • Advantages: • Larger ensemble allowing better PDF definitions • Improved probabilistic forecast performance. • Seamless suite of forecast products across international boundaries and across different time ranges (1-14 days). • Minimal additional costs – levering computational resources. • Synergy with USA Partners on R&D work. • Collaborative product development. • Contingency with another national NWP Centre. • Future: • Inclusion of Wave forecast into the exchange • Addition of Regional EPS over North America (downscalling of Global) • Extend lead time to 35 days once a week: Monthly forecast

  15. CRPS of GZ500 against North. Hem. radiosondes Operational GEPS in February 2012 NAEFS CMC vs NCEP NCEP vs NAEFS CMC vs NAEFS Gain of 8 to 12 h in days 6-7 range for each partner!

  16. Global NWP Systems: short term planned improvements Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS): More observations (impl toward jan 2014) Extension of lead-time from 16 to 32-35 day to provide monthly forecasts (impl toward sept 2013)

  17. Regional NWP Systems • Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) • 4DVar Regional Data Assimilation Re-Initialized • from the Global Deterministic Prediction System • every 6 hours, • 48 and 54-hour forecast, 4x per day, at 10 km resolution, 80 levels • Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS), • 72 hour forecast, 2x per day, 33km resolution • Downscalling of the Global EPS • initialized directly by the Global Ensemble Prediction System

  18. Regional NWP Systems: short term planned improvements Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS):(Implementation toward dec 2013 ): • More observations Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS): (Implementation toward sept 2013) • increase of resolution from 33 km to 15 km, 28 to 40 levels • Addition to NAEFS data exchange

  19. Upcoming NWP operational implementations requiring significant HPC power 4 Limited-Area 2.5 km grids, 58 levels, 24-hour forecast In 2013 or 2014 National LAM 2.5 km domain, 2 x day; replacing the 4 LAM 2.5 windows

  20. Domain Regional NWP SystemsGEM-MACH Air Quality forecast model • On-line chemical transport model based on the GEM weather forecast model (and piloted by regional GEM), 10km resolution • Provides 48H forecasts of O3, PM2.5 and NO2 twice a day • Work on the inclusion of near real-time wildfire emissions from Canada and United States in the model (impl in 2014) GEM-MACH PM2.5 forecast, 19 August 2012, 1400 UTC Hot Spots on 18 August 2010. Source: Canadian Forest Service Aug. 19 NOAA MODIS Image

  21. Other NWP Systems • Wave Forecasting: • Spectral Wave Model (WAM) 48-h regional / 120-global forecasts of wave height and period, swell height and period, and wave and swell directions; Regions: Pacific, Atlantic and Canadian Great Lakes and Arctic New version implemented in May 2012, 4x per day Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system for the Gulf of St-Lawrence Implemented in spring of 2011… ….Kind of the start of the “Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems” (CONCEPTS)…. Towards implementing global ocean model by 2013….

  22. Det. 250-> 5m Det. 1.5 km Det. 2.5 km Det. 2.5 km Det. 10 km Det. 10 km EPS 1.5 km EPS 2.5 km EPS 35 km EPS 10 km EPS 20 km EPS 10 km Future evolution of CMC atmospheric models End of 2012 2016 2020 Det. 25 km Global EPS 66 km Det. 10 km Regional EPS 15 km Local Det. 1m Det. 3m Urban EPS 5m EPS 5m

  23. Evolution of NWP systems…. Link to overall MSC strategy Linkage of NWP to the implementation of key « Signature projects » at MSC….

  24. Charting a course for the future of weather forecasting within the MSC Identifying Key strategies that integrates the vision and mandate of MSC (signature projects): • Weather Warning and Service Delivery System Re-engineering • Modern Day Monitoring Strategy • Next Generation Prediction System • High Performance Computing • Air Quality and Health Services • Meteorological Services to the Arctic (METAREAs Initiative) • Integrated Environmental Prediction Science • Climates and Water Services Strategy Integrating specific programs and tools dealing with the detection, evaluation and information of weather related risks and impacts

  25. Merci !

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