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Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP

Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP. Pertti Nurmi Finnish Meteorological Institute WMO / WWRP QPF Verification Workshop, Prague, 14-16 May 2001. “State-of-the-Art” Operational Verification. Provide instant feedback to forecasters

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Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP

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  1. Operational QPF Verificationof End Products and NWP Pertti Nurmi Finnish Meteorological Institute WMO / WWRP QPF Verification Workshop, Prague, 14-16 May 2001 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  2. “State-of-the-Art” Operational Verification • Provide instant feedback to forecasters • Enable comparison of individual forecast(er)s vs. observations • Produce comprehensive statistics of the quality of End Products • Produce comprehensive statistics of guidance forecasts (e.g. NWP) • Produce statistics of individual forecasters - personal biases etc. • Utilize a comprehensive set of tailored verification measures • Provide simplified verification statistics for the general public, the customers, the decision makers WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  3. Operational “online” Verification, Features • Web user-interface for forecast input + visualization of results • Running on a UNIX platform, interaction via Perl scripts • Operational in real-time in the CFO and the 3 RO’s • Covers all predicted End Product weather parameters: temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, wind • Covers historical data of CFO End Products since 1979 • NWP results (HIRLAM, ECMWF) included for comparison • Input consistent with operational public / customer forecasts • Used for official monitoring of the forecast quality of FMI WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  4. Present verification stations WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  5. Upcoming verification stations WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  6. QPF production NWP guidance End Product Verification WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  7. The integrated verification system Somewhat outdated ! Under re- construction ! WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  8. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  9. Short-range PoP input WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  10. Short-medium-range QPF input WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  11. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  12. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  13. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  14. Note: Too little data to be applicable ! WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  15. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  16. Official PoP verification: ROC score “hit calendar” time-series WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  17. Official PoP verification: “daily hit calendar” WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  18. Official PoP verification: ROC time-series WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  19. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  20. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  21. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  22. The integrated verification system Under some modification ! WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  23. Verification • reports are • produced: • Annually • Quarterly Application Development Pertti Ñurmi, Mika Heiskanen, Mikael Frisk WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  24. Utilizing a comprehensive set of verification measures and statistics WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  25. Annual Report(a) Page 1 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, first - P o P forecasts PS: … there are ~ 100 pages in the annual reports WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  26. Annual P o P ; Ex. 1 or, rather, attributes diagram WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  27. Annual P o P ; Ex. 2 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  28. Annual P o P ; Ex. 3 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  29. Annual P o P ; Ex. 4 2 * 2 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  30. Annual Report(b) Page 2 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, ... - Q P F (daily rainfall) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  31. Annual Q P F ; Ex. 1 (Error distribution, various lead times) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  32. Annual Q P F ; Ex. 2 (Contingency table, 3 *3) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  33. Annual Q P F ; Ex. 3 (Stratification vs. frequency) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  34. Annual Report(c) Page 3 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, ... - Q P F (cont’d) (5-day accumulations) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  35. Annual Q P F ; Ex. 4 (Stratification vs. temperature zone) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  36. Annual Q P F ; Ex. 5 (Obs vs. fc time series) WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  37. Summer Report(a) Page 4 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, first - P o P PS: … there are ~ 50 pages in the quarterly reports WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  38. Summer P o P ; Ex. 1 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  39. Summer P o P ; Ex. 2 WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  40. Summer Report(b) Page 5 of handout Detailed examples of page information will follow, ... - Q P F WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  41. Summer Q P F ; Ex. WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  42. Operational QPF Verification of End Products and NWP The end of the story by Pertti Nurmi WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  43. … unless you’re re-organizing the Weather Service - like FMI, 1996 Hypothesis: The quality of End Products is expected to increase gradually after implementation of an Operational “online” Verification System “Percent correct” forecasts WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

  44. … returning back to normal life with the best score ever Hypothesis: The quality of End Products is expected to increase gradually after implementation of an Operational “online” Verification System “Percent correct” forecasts WWRP QPF Verification - Prague

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