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Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics

Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics. Did somebody say change..?. CIRCE – WP5.4 Annarita Mariotti, ENEA and ESSIC. Mediterranean Sea water cycle climatology. Sea dM/dt=G+B+R-(E-P) E-P-R-B ~ G in annual mean Atmosphere

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Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics

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  1. Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics Did somebody say change..? CIRCE – WP5.4 Annarita Mariotti, ENEA and ESSIC

  2. Mediterranean Sea water cycle climatology • Sea • dM/dt=G+B+R-(E-P) • E-P-R-B ~ G in annual mean • Atmosphere • dW/dt=E-P-D • E-P ~ D in annual mean • Fresh water flux R-(E-P)

  3. Mediterranean fresh water flux variability 15% • Issues: • uncertainties • regional details • future changes • implications for the sea fresher?

  4. Scientific questions • What is our benchmark to judge future changes in the Mediterranean Sea water cycle? • What variations have been recently observed and how have they affected the sea? • What are the likely changes to be expected in future climatic scenarios? • How will the sea be affected by these changes?

  5. WP5.4 Goals/Tasks • Document changes in the Mediterranean Sea water cycle under the various climate change scenarios and investigate the effects on water mass characteristics. • Task 5.4.1: Diagnosing Mediterranean water cycle changes and implications for water mass characteristics • Task 5.4.2: River discharge into the Mediterranean Sea and estimation of the associated nutrient load

  6. Workplan Task 5.4.1 • Diagnose climatology of Mediterranean water cycle in recent decades • Investigate interannual/decadal variability • Relationship to large-scale atmospheric variability and changes in sea surface conditions. • Anomalous periods for major Mediterranean sub-regions. • Investigate changes in the Mediterranean water cycle in future "target" periods and implications for the sea

  7. Datasets • Satellite based estimates of P (CMAP, GPCP) and E (GSSTF2, HOAPS). • River discharge data (GRDC, MedHycos) (task 5.4.2) • Atmospheric circulation from observational datasets (HadSLP) and re-analyses (ERA40, NCEP) • Oceanic data: SST from HadSST, various data from re-analyses and WOD05. • Model results for current climate and for scenarios (IPCCAR4 models and CIRCE RCMs results)

  8. Links to other WPs/RLs • Usage of river discharge from task 5.4.2 • Usage of climatic data from the database of RL1 • Understanding will benefit from/complement results of WP5.1 and WP5.2 as well as those from RL1, RL2.

  9. Milestones – 12 mo • Observationally based climatologies for the atmospheric branch of the Mediterranean Sea water cycle • Definition of major controls on net evaporation • Estimates of the oceanic water cycle component as a residual. Deliverable – 18 mo:Climatological estimates of Mediterranean Sea water cycle components

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