ICES Advice for 2009

1. ICES Advice for 2009 South Western Waters SWWRAC, Lisbon, 08July08 Manuela Azevedo (on behalf of ACOM Chair)

2. Hake pescada Anglerfish tamboril Megrim areeiro Sole linguado Nephrops lagostim

3. Precautionary approach Used to determine state of the stock and basis for advice Flim Fishing mortality Fpa Fmsy Fmax Blim Bpa Bmsy Bmax Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB)

4. Fpa Flim low high Status of fish stocks • Expressed relative to precautionary reference points • Biomass • Fishing mortality Blim Bpa low high Reduced reproductive capacity At risk of reduced reproductive capacity Full reproductive capacity Harvested unsustainably Harvested sustainably At risk of unsustainable harvesting

5. Basis for the advice • If biomass below Bpa : F that will achieve SSB at Bpa in 2010 below Blim : zero catch or Recovery Plan • If management plans evaluated to be precautionary • Advice according to management plan • If no assessment available • Indications of stable population: no increase effort/catch • e.g. apply recent average catch • Indications of declining population: decrease effort/catch • Indications of depleted population: lowest possible/zero catch

6. Northern HakeIIIa, IV, VI, VII, VIIIabd

7. ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 51 500 t→ decrease in TAC of 5% According to Fpa Management objectives - Increase SSB above 140 th t: F < 0.25 but TAC±15%- If SSB >= 140 th t for 2 consecutive years then Management Plan

8. SSB > Bpa Fsq = Fpa Fsq > Fmax

9. Management considerations • Discards of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. The spawning biomass and the long-term yield can be substantially improved by reducing mortality of small fish: technical measures that reduce unwanted bycatch and other measures that shift the selection pattern towards larger fish. • The northern hake stock met the SSB targetin the recovery plan of 140 000 t for two consecutive years, according to the results from the 2006 and 2007 assessments. Article 3 of the recovery plan indicated that a management plan should now be implemented and one is under development. • The reduction of fishing mortality to levels around Fpa (0.25) has promoted the increase in SSB in recent years.

10. SoleBay of Biscay (VIIIabd)

11. ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 4 430 t→ increase in TAC of 6% According to Fpa Management objectives - Increase SSB above 13 th t in 2008 10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%

12. SSB ~ Bpa Fsq ~ Fpa Fsq > Fmax

13. Management considerations • Since the stock is estimated close to the target SSB of 13 000t, according to article 3 of the multi-annual plan it is necessary for EC to decide on a long-term target fishing mortality rate and a rate of reduction to achieve the target.

14. Megrim in Divisions VIIb-k and VIIIabd L. whiffiagonis

15. ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 13 000 t Basis: average landings of 2004–2006 Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for this stock • New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stock being stable.” • No new advice: to be updated next year

16. Anglerfish in VIIb-k and VIIIabd L. piscatorius and L. budegassa

17. ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 33 000 tBasis: average landings of 2004–2006 Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks • New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stocks being stable.” • No new advice: to be updated next year

18. Nephrops VIIIab (Bay of Biscay) Functional Units 23 and 24: Assessed as one entity

19. ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 3 400 tBasis: average catch of 2005–2007 Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for this fishery

20. Reference points not defined Fsq > Fmax

21. Underestimation of Fishing mortality Overestimation of Spawning Biomass Major revision on Recruits Short-term forecast not provided due to the high uncertainty of recent levels of recruitment. Short-term forecasts are particularly sensitive to uncertainty in recent recruitment

22. Management considerations • Although the stock seems to have been relatively stable there is an opportunity to greatly increase the long-term yield from this fishery as well as the SSB. • This can be achieved by lowering the fishing mortality and improving the selection pattern. Since the present fishing mortality is three times the fishing mortality related to high long-term yield, a management plan should be established to reduce fishing mortality and also to improve the selection pattern, in particular by reducing discarding.

23. Iberian Waters (VIIIc and IXa)

24. ICES adviceZero catch in 2009According to Bpa Hake in VIIIc and IXa (Southern hake) Management objectivesIncrease SSB above 35 th t by reducing F to 0.27 by 2015 10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%

25. SSB < Blim Fsq > Flim Fsq > Fmax Fsq > 0.27 TAC overshot Increased! Well below Blim !

26. Management considerations • The implementation of the recovery plan has not been effective. Fishing mortality is increasing, the TAC is overshot, and discard rates are high. • Had a 10% annual reduction in fishing mortality been achieved since 2006 according to the recovery plan, the fishing mortality in 2009 would be less than half of the most recent estimate. • Recent increases in SSB and yield are due to good recruitment in recent years, but at the Fsq level there is a high probability of reversing the upwards trend in SSB unless F in 2009 is reduced by at least 40%

27. Megrim in VIIIc and IXa ICES adviceLandings in 2009 should not exceed 1 430 t230 t (megrim) + 1200 t (4-spotted-megrim)Basis: No increase in F Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks • New survey and commercial data do not change stock perception: “ .. SSB stable for L. whiffiagonis and increasing for L. boscii.” • No new advice: to be updated next year

28. Anglerfish in VIIIc and IXa ICES adviceClose the fishery and develop a Recovery PlanAccording to PA Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks • There are no indications that the stock has improved Last year: Fishing mortality equal to zero in 2008 was not expected to bring the stock back to BMSY. • No new advice: to be updated next year

29. Nephrops VIIIc FU25 – North Galicia FU 31 – Cantabrian Sea IXa FU 26-27 - West Galicia & North Portugal FU 28-29 - SW & S Portugal FU 30 - Gulf of Cadiz

30. Management objectivesRebuild the stock within 10 years (RPlan since end January 2006) 10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15% Apply to all FU in Iberian waters

31. ICES adviceFU 25: Reduce catches to zero FU 31: Reduce catches to zero

32. IXa

33. ICES adviceFU 26-27: Reduce catches to zero

34. ICES adviceFU 28-29: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t

35. ICES adviceFU 30: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t Mean size ?? Landings Landings Survey

36. Management considerations • The calculation of a TAC corresponding to a reduction in F of 10% as called for in the recovery plan was not feasible (fishery indicators too uncertain: FU 25,31, 26-27, 30) or unreliable short-term forecasts (FU 28-29) • Since the TAC is set for the combined fishery units FU 26–30, a disproportionate amount could be taken from one or the other of the units. This could result in a higher fishing mortality on one of the stocks than had been anticipated. Finer-scale management of catches and/or effort at a geographic scale that corresponds to the distribution of the Nephrops stock should be implemented.