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ICES advice as of 30th June 2014

ICES advice as of 30th June 2014. Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield Marine Scotland - Science. North Sea overview 2014. North Sea cod. North Sea cod. R etrospective pattern Indicates “same outcome as last year”. Georges Bank yellowtail flounder. North Sea cod.

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ICES advice as of 30th June 2014

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  1. ICES advice as of 30th June 2014 Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield Marine Scotland - Science

  2. North Sea overview 2014

  3. North Sea cod

  4. North Sea cod • Retrospective pattern • Indicates “same outcome as last year” Georges Bank yellowtail flounder North Sea cod

  5. North Sea cod • Discarding remained high in 2013

  6. North Sea cod • Increasingly northerly distribution 1983-88 2010-14

  7. North Sea cod • Retrospective pattern • Discarding still high in 2013 • More northerly distribution • F still declining and SSB still rising • Recruitment remains low • Management plan (EU-Norway): • Catch 2015 = 35 486 t • Landings 2015 = 26 713 t • 20% reduction on 2014 TAC • MSY approach: • 61% reduction on 2014 TAC

  8. North Sea whiting

  9. North Sea whiting • Still no agreed reference points • Management plan (EU-Norway): • Catch 2015 = 28 317 t • Landings 2015 = 17 190 t • 15% reduction on 2014 TAC

  10. North Sea plaice

  11. North Sea plaice 1983-92 2005-14

  12. North Sea plaice • Very abundant, historical maximum • Management plan (EU-Norway): • Catch 2015 = 179 301 t • Landings 2015 = 128 376 t • 15% increase on 2014 TAC

  13. Northern Shelf haddock

  14. Northern Shelf haddock • Now assessed as a single stock • MSY approach: • Catch 2015 = 54 580 t • Landings 2015 = 48 176 t • 8% increase on 2014 TACs • ICES yet to advise on area TAC split

  15. Northern Shelf saithe

  16. Northern Shelf saithe • Management plan (EU-Norway): • Catch 2015 = 80 097 t • Landings 2015 = 72 854 t • 14.9% decrease on 2014 TAC • Two years of discard estimates from EU fleets used in advice: time series too short to use in assessment. Norwegian discard rates assumed 0%.

  17. North Sea herring

  18. North Sea herring • Stock considered to be in low productivity phase although above SSB trigger • F is below Fmsy • Recruitment generally low in recent years because overwinter survival since 2002 remains poor • Advice is for catches of 429 727 t in human consumption fleet (9% reduction on 2014 TAC)

  19. North Sea sprat

  20. North Sea sprat • Stock has been at or above Bpa since 2005. SSBin 2013 is estimated to be at Bpa • Fishing mortality has shown an overall decreasing trend since 2004 • Recruitment in 2013 is estimated to be one of the highest in the time-series • Advice for 2014-2015 is landings of 227 000 t (58% increase on 2013-2014 advice)

  21. FladenNephrops Abundance Catches Harvest rate Catches 2015 no more than 10 759 tonnes All catches landed

  22. Moray Firth Nephrops Catches Abundance Harvest rate Landings 2015 no more than 1185 tonnes

  23. Firth of Forth Nephrops Abundance Catches Harvest rate Landings 2015 no more than 1769 tonnes

  24. Farn Deeps Nephrops Abundance Catches Harvest rate Landings 2015 no more than 983 tonnes

  25. North Sea Nephrops • General improvement in North Sea Nephrops • Increases in abundance and reduced harvest rates in Scottish FUs – advice for increased TACs • Fishery at Fladen taking some time to get back to ‘normal’ • Other FUs are data limited • Advice overall – 14% increase (excl N Deeps)

  26. Mixed fishery advice – North Sea

  27. West Coast overview 2014

  28. West Coast cod

  29. West Coast cod 1983-92 2005-14

  30. West Coast cod • Status unchanged. • F continues to be very high and SSB very low • Recruitment low since 2001 and considered impaired • Discards account for 80% of catches • Advice is for no directed fishery and minimise discards

  31. West Coast whiting

  32. West Coast whiting • Current stock situation poor but showing improvements • F is very low ,SSB beginning to increase (around Blim) • Recruitment has improved in last few years • Discards account for high proportion of catches • Advice is still for no directed fishery and minimise discards

  33. Rockall haddock

  34. Rockall haddock • Stock has declined in recent years • F is fairly low (just above target) and SSB currently declining • A couple of better recruitments in recent years should see stock improve • Measures to reduce discards of incoming year classes should be developed • Advice is for landings of 2930 t (this represents a 142% increase on current TAC)

  35. West Coast & northern North Sea megrim Catches 8 7 Discards 6 Landings 5 4 3 2 1 0 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 B/BMSY 1.2 Fmsy F/F MSY 3 Blim 1 MSYBtrigger 2.5 0.8 2 0.6 1.5 0.4 1 0.2 0.5 0 0 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 Catches Same advice as last year: landings of 5950 t (3 % below current TAC) B/BMSY F/FMSY

  36. Northern hake

  37. Northern hake

  38. Northern hake • Stock has been very high in recent years • F has decreased but still above target • Stock predicted to increase again following recent high recruitment • Advice is for landings of 78 457 t (this represents a 4% reduction on current TAC)

  39. West Coast herring

  40. West Coast herring • Stock considered to be stable but at a low level compared to the past • F is fluctuating (around target) and SSB above trigger level • Recruitment at a low level in recent years • Management plan advice is for landings of 22690 (reduction of 19% on 2014 TAC)

  41. Blue Ling

  42. Blue Ling • Stock in good shape • F has been falling for some time, now below Fmsy • Biomass increasing • Recruitment relatively stable throughout time series • Based on MSY approach, catches 2015 not more than 5046 (29% increase)

  43. Ling

  44. Ling • Stock in quite good shape, • Increasing catch rates imply improving stock biomass • New data do not change general perception • Data limited approach, advice the same as last year • 10 800 tonnes (III, IV, VI, VII, VIII, XII, XIV)

  45. Tusk

  46. Tusk • Stocks generally in quite good shape • Various stock units including ‘other’ areas (includes IV and VI) • New data do not change perception of stock • Advice for ‘other’ in 2012 was for 2 years • Based on data limited approach advice is for catches no more than 8500 tonnes

  47. Greater Forkbeard

  48. Greater Forkbeard • Data limited stock • Based on 4 survey series – stock increasing in recent years • Large increase (86%) between 2009-11 and 2012-13 • Under data limited rules implies an increase in catch of 20% compared to average of last three years – so a TAC of 2628

  49. Status summary North Sea Cod Haddock Plaice Herring Nephrops West Coast Cod Haddock Rockall haddock Herring Nephrops Widely Distributed Hake Saithe Megrim Mackerel

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