Is the Cell Phone Associated with Perceptions of Government Behavior?

1. Is the Cell Phone Associated with Perceptions of Government Behavior? Andy Schaalman as0988a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Research Interest • The protests of the Arab Spring of 2011 garnered worldwide attention for having been coordinated principally through information technology couriers and social media outlets. In fact, they were just the most recent incidents in what has become an ongoing trend of public demonstrations for more open and free government being organized through these “new media”. • This pattern of “social media protests” has coincided with an explosion in the markets for information technology infrastructure and devices in the developing world.

3. Research Interest • The device which has seen the most dramatic penetration in the developing world in recent years is the cell phone; the global mean of cellular subscriptions stood at just below 75 per 100 people in 2008. • We know from the evidence that information and information technology – and by extension, the cell phone – have produced greater engagement in the behavior of people vis-à-vis their leaders. How associated are peoples’ perceptions of their leaders and their use of cell phones?

4. Corruption Perception Index • Transparency International: 1995 • Countries are ranked on a 1.0 to 10.0 scale according to “the perception of (activities pertaining to) corruption in the public sector”, including: bribery of public officials, kickbacks in public procurement, embezzlement of public funds, and the strength and effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts within the public sector • Draws opinions from surveys and assessments of businesses and private citizens by renowned international organizations (Gallup, Freedom House, PriceWaterHouseCoopers, etc.)

5. Research Question & Hypothesis • Research Question: • Is the use of cell phones associated with the perception of less corrupt (i.e. more transparent) government behavior? • Research hypothesis: • Controlling for penetration of the Internet, level of political freedom, literacy rate, and GDP per capita, I predict there will be a statistically significant relationship between a nation’s number of cell phone users and its ratings for perceived government transparency.

6. Background / Lit Review • Michael W. Collier (Examining Political Corruption): • Corruption: social and cultural norms of individual choice and leaders’ opportunities to exploit them • Corruption is reduced and transparency increased when people possess the means to maximize their share of the “social surplus” • Clay Shirky (Political Power of Social Media): • “Communications landscape” and penetration of social media have provided countries with greater opportunities to strengthen civil society and people with more opportunities to unite in common cause • No pre-ordained outcomes, but it does give countries the opportunity to develop civil society over time • Jacob Groshek (Multinational Forecasts of Democratic Forecasts and Internet Diffusion): • Technology provides opportunities, but change is slow; new technology is “only as deterministic as the people who create and subsequently use them” • Early studies (1994-2003) of affects of internet penetration on democracy did not produce evidence of association; no causation

7. Data • Unit of analysis/study : Country • Source(s) : Transparency International, World Bank (World Development Indicators), Freedom House • Reliability of data: • CPI’s basis in perception leaves some opening to interpretation • About one-third missing data for literacy rate • Dependent variable: • Corruption Perception Index (scale: 1.0-10.0; 1.0 = entirely corrupt, 10.0 = entirely transparent) • Unit of Measurement = Country • LOM = Interval-ratio

8. Independent and Control Variables • Independent Variables: • Mobile Phones per 100 People • Internet Subscribers per 100 People • Level of Political Freedom • Literacy Rate • GDP per Capita • All Units = Country, All LOM = Interval-Ratio

9. Histograms

10. Histograms

11. Descriptive Statistics

12. CPI vs. Cell Phones per 100 People Scatterplot Single Linear Regression N = 169 Adjusted r-squared = 0.377 = moderate association Standard Error = 0.2896 t = 0.00286 SE / t = 10.13 > 1.96 = significant b = 1.8286 t = 0.2492 SE / t = 7.34 > 1.96 = significant Positive, Moderate Significance

13. Bivariate Analysis

15. Matrix Scatterplot

16. Multiple Regression AnalysisDependent Variable is Corruption Perception Index

17. CPI: Predicted Residuals Values

18. Hypothesis Recap • Research Hypothesis • From a data standpoint, my findings support my research hypothesis: that in a cross-national study, use of cell phones is associated with the perceived transparency of government. However: • Internet subscription a key control factor; still low in most of world • Far more data points “low-low” and close to slope on scatterplot • The most consistent indicator across a variety of multiple regression models is still political freedom. • These trends suggest – as Shirky and Groshek argue – that the diffusion of technology alone cannot bring more transparent government; the proper elements of civil society must be in place first.

19. Policy Implications #1 The connection between rate of cell phone use and perceptions of government behavior – individually and as one component of the information technology dynamic – is apparent. However, as the scatterplot of the basic linear regression and the multiple regression models show, there is more association between low CPI ratings (high corruption) and low cell phone use than between high ratings and high use. This means that the spread of the device has been so swift – especially relative to population internet access – that it has created a large bloc of countries where a discernible gap exists between the “mobile connectivity” of people and the balance of “social surplus” between the people and the government.

20. Where Phones Exceed Transparency: 2008 Data

21. Policy Implications #2 The recent protests in Egypt, Iran, China, Myanmar, and elsewhere speak to this gap: the governments there were not less corrupt than before – the people just had the opportunity and the means to coordinate together to air grievances in large numbers (and to varying degrees of success). In these countries and others like them, the development of civil society sufficient to keep corruption (and the perception of such behavior) in check has been outpaced by the march of technology. With this in mind, US policymakers should heed the advice of Shirky and Gorshek and focus on fostering growth of civil society from the ground up in the developing world, instead of spending large sums for “access and connectivity” in efforts to spring civil society up overnight.

22. Policy Implications #3 • The United States and its international partners should remain committed to promoting information freedom and the spread of new technology in all its forms, but must adjust to each individual case and focus on specific commitments rather than making holistic commitments and investments to countries that are “undeveloped” or “censored”. Examples: • Iran – work to debug “phone trackers” used by Revolutionary Guard • Afghanistan – assure mobile banking system kept to Afghan National Police until assurance of security provided • Africa – delay proposed initiative on mobile investments until current humanitarian efforts contribute to civil society growth • Myanmar – conflict mediation and civil society promotion first priority • “Freedom” bills – put aside and let diplomats do their jobs

23. Sources • Theresa Thompson and Anwar Shah, Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index: Whose Perceptions are they Anyway? Worldbank.org http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PSGLP/Resources/ShahThompsonTransparencyinternationalCPI.pdf • Michael W. Collier, Examining Political Corruption. Columbia International Affairs Online http://www.ciaonet.org/isa/com01/ • Clay Shirky, The Political Power of Social Media: Technology, the Public Sphere, and Political Change. Foreign Affairs Magazine, Jan/Feb 2011 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67038/clay-shirky/the-political-power-of-social-media • Dan Rice and Guy Filippelli, “One Cell Phone at a Time: Countering Corruption in Afghanistan”. Small Wars Journal, 2010 http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/527-rice.pdf • Jacob Groshek, A Time-Series, Multinational Analysis of Democratic Forecasts and Internet Diffusion. http://ijoc.org/ojs/index.php/ijoc/article/view/495/392 • Mark Landler and Brian Knowlton, “U.S. Policy to Address Internet Freedom”. New York Times, 2/14/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/world/15clinton.html • “Use Mobile Phone Banking to Share Africa Resource Wealth: World Bank”. China Post, 6/10/11 http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/africa/2011/06/10/305611/Use-mobile.htm • Transparency International online • World Bank, World Development Indicators online • Freedom House online