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MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY. POLI 146A. READING. Smith, Talons , ch. 13 Domínguez and Fernández de Castro, chapters 2, 4, 5 (Mexico, Central America, Caribbean). Introduction: Patterns and Policies. THE NUMBERS GAME(S) Flows Stocks Proportions Costs and benefits Rates of assimilation.

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MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

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  1. MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY POLI 146A

  2. READING • Smith, Talons, ch. 13 • Domínguez and Fernández de Castro, chapters 2, 4, 5 (Mexico, Central America, Caribbean)

  3. Introduction: Patterns and Policies THE NUMBERS GAME(S) • Flows • Stocks • Proportions • Costs and benefits • Rates of assimilation

  4. Emotional Issues and Political Debates • Ethnicity vs. melting pots • Diversity vs. tradition • Fairness vs. efficiency

  5. Numerical Dimensions • ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S. • 55-60% from Mexico • 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now in U.S. • U.S.-Mexican wage ratio~ 8:1 or 10:1

  6. Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

  7. Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003 Mx-born (9.9)

  8. Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

  9. Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

  10. Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003

  11. Border Patrol Agents

  12. Effects of Border Enforcement 1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona) 2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers) 3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent stays) 4. More women and families 5. Increased loss of life

  13. Deaths at the Border • 2001 = 528 • 2002 = 470 • 2003 = 478 • 2004 = 460 • 2005 > 500

  14. Migration and the Global Economic Crisis (2008+) • Context: joblessness everywhere • New entries down (not due to border enforcement, since 95% of migrants without papers get through) • Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico about major increase) • Net migration from Mexico ~ zero • Within USA, unemployment among Latino men > Anglo men

  15. The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration • Revise legal quotas • Revise criteria for entry

  16. TheRangeof Policy Choice: Illegal Migration Strategies for restriction: • Building fences • Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) • Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) • Punishing employers Strategies for opening: • Augmenting quotas • Guest-worker programs • Eliminating barriers Strategies for reduction: • Targeting economic development • Circulating information • Additional steps?

  17. Initiatives on Migration Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001) Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification Phase 3: The Second Bush Term • Temporary amnesty for those here and employed • Guest-worker program • Eventual path to citizenship

  18. OBAMA AND THE CIR • Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth) • Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas • Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000 • Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers • Family visas:tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

  19. What Would You Do?

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