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What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MI

Environmental Decision-Making – Does Theology Help? Trinity College Bristol 10 March 2007. What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD. Overview of Presentation Recap on Sustainability

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What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MI

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  1. Environmental Decision-Making – Does Theology Help? Trinity College Bristol 10 March 2007 What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD Engineered Solutions International

  2. Overview of Presentation • Recap on Sustainability • ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ • Energy and Climate Change • The Energy Hierarchy • How is the UK responding? • The Severn Barrage • Concluding Thoughts Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  3. 1. Recap on Sustainability Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  4. Definition of Sustainability Some of the best-known (and memorable) definitions of Sustainability are: “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Bruntland Report (1987) Or even more simply, “We have borrowed the present from our children.” Old African proverb Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  5. Definition of Sustainability Improving financial gains for businesses and society The ‘Triple Bottom Line’ Effect ECONOMIC Sustain-ability Reducing negative impacts on environment and health ENVIRON- MENTAL Increasing quality of life SOCIETAL Sustainability Diagram Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  6. 2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  7. Breakdown of Total UK Energy Usage Source: Dr Sue Ions, British Nuclear Group (2005) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  8. Transport Heat Electricity Coverage of UK Energy in Energy Review Actual split of energy types in UK ‘Coverage’ in the Energy Review Source: P. Wolfe, REA (2006) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  9. 3. Energy and Climate Change Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  10. Global Primary Energy Use Global primary energy use, historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in the three cases to 2100, in Gtoe. The insert shows global population growth, 1850 to 1990 and projections to 2100, in billion people. Source: Bos et al., 1992 Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  11. Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel (in billions of tonnes of Carbon) green curve [C] would lead to CO2 stabilisation at ~450 ppmv Source: World Energy Council (2000) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  12. Carbon Emissions per Capita Carbon Emissions per Capita (2000) versus Population Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  13. CO2 Contraction and Convergence CO2 contraction for 450 ppm and convergence by 2030 to globally equal per capita emissions rights Source: Global Commons Institute (2003) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  14. Global Carbon Emissions Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq) Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  15. Global Carbon Emissions Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq) ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BAPS SCENARIO EXTRAPOLATED TO 2050 Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  16. Socolow’s Stabilisation Wedges Stabilisation triangle includes 7 wedges, each of 25 GtC Source: Prof Robert Socolow, 2004, Science 305:968-9720) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  17. 4. The Energy Hierarchy Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  18. Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’ 1 – Energy Conservation  2 – Energy Efficiency  3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies  4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies  5 – Conventional Energy Supplies Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  19. Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’ 1 – Energy Conservation (do not use as much energy)  2 – Energy Efficiency (find more efficient ways of supplying/using energy)  3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies (least environmental impact)  4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies(other GHG-reducing supply sources)  5 – Conventional Energy Supplies (the way we currently do it) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  20. 5. How is the UK responding? Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  21. Power Generation Mix 1990-2005 Source: DUKES (2006) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  22. Power Generation Mix 1997-2005 Average Annual Change in Mix Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  23. How is the UK responding? UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels: 200220102020 Gasnet exporterimport 30%import 80% Oilnet exportermodest importerlarge importer Coalnet importerlarge importerlarge importer Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002 Does this describe a sustainable situation? Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  24. Overall EU Belgium UK Luxembourg 1997 actual Netherlands 2010 targets Ireland Germany Greece EU Member State Denmark France Italy Spain Finland Portugal Sweden Austria 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Percentage of Total Power How is the UK responding? Total Power From Renewables In The EU Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  25. How is the UK responding? Percentage of UK Electricity from Renewables: 19972010 2020 actualtarget aspiration UK2%10% (8%) 20% (15%) SCO10%18% (23%) 40% (>50%) ENG+WAL 1.8% 9% (7%) 18% (12%) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  26. How is the UK responding? Stop Press: 09 March 2007 EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020, just 13 years from now. Question: by how much has the UK reduced its GHG emissions over the past nearly ten years since this Government has been in office? Er… they’ve actually increased over that period! So, how are we going to reverse this trend? How about a tidal barrage? Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  27. 6. The Severn Barrage Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  28. Location • Bristol Channel/ Severn Estuary • Downstream of Cardiff to Weston-super-Mare • 16 km length Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  29. Tidal Power • The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through a turbine to generate electricity • Proven Technology: La Rance in France has generated tidal power reliably for over 35 years Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  30. Barrage Operation Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  31. Barrage Layout (1989 Report) • 216 Turbines, 40MW each, 8640MW total • 166 Sluices 35,000m2 • Ship Locks • Small Locks • Public Road Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  32. Facts and Figures • Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption) • Installed Capacity 8640 MW • Savings of CO2 emissions: 18Mt per year compared to Coal; (equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions) • Renewables Obligation: • 15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot contribute • 20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. Barrage could contribute all of this - if sanctioned soon • Capital Cost £8bn 1989  ~£14bn 2005 – needs re-estimate • Security of supply benefit Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  33. Power Generation (Spring Tide) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  34. Power Generation (Neap Tide) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  35. Flexibility of Output Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  36. Environmental Studies 1989 • A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, covering: • Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves) • Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage • Ecology, Birds, Fish Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  37. Environmental Balance ? • Loss of the unique harsh environment • Some birds may lose habitat • Marine life and other birds will increase • Flood protection to estuary and rivers • Carbon Saving • The environmental assessment needs to be updated to account for the changes in the Estuary since the 1980s and also the changes in legislation Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  38. Transport Key Issues • Ports and Shipping • Forecast Shipping Movements • Size of Locks to suit Avonmouth docks • Road and Rail • Cost-benefit of a Barrage Crossing Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  39. Construction : Prefabricated Caissons Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  40. Caisson Construction Sites • 1989 report identified potential UK sites shown • Potential Sites in Europe • Project and Employment Benefits of using many sites Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  41. Construction Sequence (1989 Report) Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  42. Turbine Installation Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  43. 9m Diameter Bulb Turbine Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  44. Employment(1989 report) • 200,000 man years for construction • 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over the UK, about half in the Severnside region • 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the region Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  45. Economics of the Project • Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive return: • carbon credits are necessary • - ROCs buyout • - ROCs recycle • valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value) • external benefits are additional Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  46. 10 9 8 Tax 7 Equity Return 6 Transmission Opex 5 Transmission Capex 4 Barrage Opex 3 Barrage Capex 2 1 0 Cost ILEX April Actual 2005 spot Price market 7 Dec 05 forecast Cost – Price relationship ROC recycle ROC buyout Wholesale electricity price p/kWh April 2005 money Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  47. Security of supply 1.8 1.6 Increased land & 1.4 property values 1.2 Job creation 1.0 Inward investment 0.8 0.6 Shared grid 0.4 strengthening costs 0.2 Flood damage 0.0 avoidance Value of Externalities These indicative values are a key part of the project value p/kWh Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  48. Outline Program for Implementation Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  49. 7. Concluding Thoughts Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

  50. Concluding Thoughts • The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from renewables” commitment back on target by 2020 • The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not ‘large projects’ versus ‘small projects’ – both will be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges • Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits • The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which provides real security of supply • If not the Severn Barrage, then what? Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage

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