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SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar

SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar. Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1 st Floor Seminar Room. Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report highlights). IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information. M otivating questions: What are the key findings?

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SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar

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  1. SPRING 2014 EESC G9910 Atmospheric Science Seminar Fri 9:15-10:45 Comer 1st Floor Seminar Room Jan 24, 2014: Organizational Meeting and Overview (IPCC process; report highlights)

  2. IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information • Motivating questions: • What are the key findings? • On what evidence are they based? • Where are there critical knowledge gaps? • FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30. • Final SPM is posted:http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ • Sign up on email list (circulating) • receive course emails • Access to galley proof version of chapter for next weekcannot be publicly distributed: • www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf • Supplemental readings at course website: • www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html

  3. Course participation Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can start assigning by end of class All are welcome to present, students are given first priority in choosing chapters. Schedule with names will be on course website b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only) 2 points (discussion + presentation) 3 points (discussion + presentation + paper) We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community. Feel free to join us whenever possible.

  4. Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks 1/31/14 2/7/14 2/14/14 2/21/14 3/7/14 2/28/14 3/14/14 3/28/14 4/4/14 4/11/14 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14

  5. Guidance on presentations and final paper(additional details posted on course website) • Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. • Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class • 2 options for final Papers (8 page max): • Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? • Option #2:Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.

  6. The rest of today 1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4AR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe 2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU -- available at:

  7. Climat Change Science 2013: Haikuhttp://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/

  8. IPCC (2007): • Warming in theclimatesystemisunequivocal, asisnow evident fromobservations .... • Most oftheobservedincrease in global averagedtemperature ... isverylikely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations. • Continued GHG emissions ... wouldinducemanychanges ... thatwouldverylikelybe larger thanthoseobserved ... c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  9. c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  10. Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006) [...] [...] c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  11. Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5: • Introduction Chapter 1 • Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5 • Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7 • From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10 • Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12 • Integration Chapters 13, 14 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  12.         Structure of AR5 in perspective Climate Change2013 FAR 1990 11 Chapters SAR 1995 11 Chapters TAR 2001 14 Chapters AR4 2007 11 Chapters AR5 2013 14 Chapters    observations   paleoclimate     sea level  clouds   carbon cycle   regional change c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  13. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  14. Schedule Sep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus July 2009 Scoping Meeting May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, China Mar 2011 Completion of 0-order draft Jul 2011 Second LA meeting Nov 2011 Completion 1st-order draft Apr 2012 Third LA meeting Aug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draft Jan 2013 Fourth LA meeting May 2013 Completion of Final Draft Sep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGI Mar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGII Apr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIII Sep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report 2010 2011 submitted31. July 2012 2012 2013 in press, published15. March 2013 2014 c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ

  15. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  16. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  17. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  18. HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  19. HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  20. HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  21. HIGHLIGHTS: Observations c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  22. HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  23. HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution) c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  24. HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  25. HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise 2081-2100 range: RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 m RCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  26. HIGHLIGHTS: Future options c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  27. Course Goals •  Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and other- statements in AR5. • What are the key findings? • On what evidence are they based? • -- models, observations, theory • -- strength of evidence • Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

  28. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  29. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  30. Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables AII.1: Historical Climate System Data AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions AII.3: Natural Emissions AII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes AII.6: Effective RadiativeForcing AII.7: Environmental Data As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values Annex III: Glossary

  31. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  32. c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13

  33. Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks Olivia 1/31/14 2/7/14 2/14/14 2/21/14 Cari 3/7/14 2/28/14 Keren 3/14/14 Ken 3/28/14 Chloe 4/4/14 Nora 4/11/14 Ethan 4/18/14 4/25/14 5/2/14

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