Air Force Weather Support to Homeland Security COPC Meeting 28 Nov 01

1. Air Force Weather Support to Homeland Security COPC Meeting 28 Nov 01 Lt Col Mike Babcock HQ USAF/ XOW

2. Overview • AFW - Who we are, what we do, and why • Leveraging the meteorological community • Cooperative support and backup • Opportunities for Improvement

3. CME CIVILIAN 3% 8% OFFICER 19% ENLISTED 70% AFW Demographics: Who we are • Active Duty AF • Strat center (AFWA) • 9 Opnl Wx Squadrons • 132 Combat Wx Teams • Air National Guard • 33 Weather Flights • AF Reserves • Augment active duty AFW Units Total AFW Personnel: 4040 Active Duty AF: 3450 ANG/Reserve: 590 (as of Apr 01)

4. AFW Capabilities Deliver to our Nation's combat forces anytime, anyplace, the highest quality, mission-tailored information, products, and services relating to the terrestrial and space environment....from the mud to the sun.

5. TAILORING FORECASTING AFW Core Processes ALL ARE KEY TO PERFORMING OUR MISSION: ANALYSIS DATA COLLECTION DISSEMINATION

6. AFW –Organized for Ops OPERATIONAL CONCEPT Leverage TechnologyManage Infrastructure Global Products Strategic Weather Center Operational Weather Squadrons Fine-Scale Theater Products Develop ForecastsOn-the-Job Training / Mentoring Less Experienced Personnel Combat Weather Teams (132) Mission-Scale 2 Way Info Lean, ExperiencedMission Knowledgeable Team WARFIGHTER

7. Weather Support Areas Of Responsibility E W 0 60 W 0 60 0 10 W 0 30 0 46 N 0 46 N E 0 159 0 0 28 N 22 N E 0 68 0 5 S W W 0 92 0 30 0 66.5 S Areas of Responsibility 11 OWS (Elmendorf AFB) 15 OWS (Scott AFB) 17 OWS (Hickam AFB) 20 OWS (Yokota AB) 25 OWS (Davis-Monthan AFB) 26 OWS (Barksdale AFB) 28 OWS (Shaw AFB) AFWA (Offutt AFB) USAFE OWS (Sembach)

8. AMC Units AETC Units AFMC Units AFSPC Units OWSs + Support Locations (CONUS) USAF/AFRC/ANG Flying Unit CONUS Regional Ops ACC Army Units Weather Squadrons AFSOC Unit Green indicates reengineered Army NG Avn Unit Scott AFB Shaw AFB Davis Monthan Barksdale AFB AFB

9. + AFW Capabilitiesleveraged by others • Meteorological satellite processing and applications • Cloud analyses/forecasts, Snow and Surface Temp analyses • Fine-scale NWP model coupled with Land Surface Model • LSM collaboration with NCAR, NCEP, Office of Hydrology • Space weather support for all DoD and National Program customers – worldwide observing network and collaboration with NOAA’s Space Environment Center Space Wx LSM Improved support for DoD ops • Low-level aircraft ops • Trafficability for ground forces • Dispersion of contaminants • Smart weapons employment Cloud forecasts 12 nm horiz res

10. AFW Capabilities leveraged by others • Climatology • Global archival and analysis of weather observations • ACMES (climo from meso models, constrained by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields) • Slant-path Point Analysis Model • Center collocated with NOAA’s NCDC, Asheville, NC • Collaborating with NOAA’s NWS and OAR on climo support to USAID, DoS – medium range forecasts to support refugee aid

11. AFW units provide met data to the consequence mgmt experts Joint Forces Command support AF civil engineer readiness teams Army nuclear, biological, and chemical teams AFWA, OWSs, and CWTs all support operations AFWA populates Met Data Server with high-resolution MM5 data for DTRA and other HPAC users worldwide Enables support for major events such as Olympics, inauguration, etc. For CONUS homeland security, NWS is primary, DoD secondary/backup Atmospheric Dispersion

12. Leveraging: Operations • NOAA • NESDIS: satellite data and services • NWS/NCEP: NWP models (AVN, Eta), forecast products • NOAA/SEC: Space Weather products • Navy • NWP models (NOGAPS) • Ocean products (SST analyses, wave forecasts, etc.) • All available (NOAA/NWS, Navy, foreign sources, etc.) • Access to products via web pages, data via comm feed • Observations, radar, TAFs & aviation products, etc.

13. Leveraging:Training, R&D, acquisition • Training • COMET (UCAR lead; sponsored by DOC, DoD, etc.) • We provide joint formal training to Navy, USMC, USCG at Keesler AFB, MS • R&D: Leverage best we find - transition to ops • DoD research labs (AFRL, ARL, NRL) • Fed civilian labs (NCAR, FSL, ETL, etc.) • Academia (UPOS, CIRA, etc.) • Industry (Weather Channel, CRDA with AER, etc.) • Cooperative development and acquisition • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model • NPOESS (DoD/DOC/NASA); NEXRAD (DoD/DOC/DOT)

14. Cooperative Support and Backup • AFW supports National Command Authorities, Navy/USMC, NOAA, Intel community, NIMA, National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, State Dept, DTRA, USAID, & others • AFWA provides backup to NOAA centers via official agreement • Product backup for Aviation Wx Center, Storms Prediction Center, and Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center • Mesoscale model backup (MM5) to NCEP Eta model • Space Wx products to Space Environment Center • AFWA is partner in OFCM’s Cooperative Support and Backup Plan for operational processing centers (Shared Proc. Net.) • AFWA provides high-res MM5 data to DTRA via HPAC met data servers, for use by DTRA and worldwide HPAC users • Web page access via JAAWIN, JAAWIN(S), OWS web pages

15. DoD Operations • Roles and responsibilities • Services: Component Ops; Organize, Train and Equip • Joint operations: Unified commands • R&D: OUSD(AT&L), Service labs (AFRL, ARL, NRL) • Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan): CENTCOM has lead • Joint Ops Area Forecast (JOAF) from Bahrain (Navy) • Shaw OWS: provides tailored reach-back support • AFWA: MM5 products, dust model, SOF/Intel support • Noble Eagle (CONUS): JFCOM, NORAD have ops lead • Higher ops tempo; otherwise, business as usual

16. Opportunities for Improvement • Improved NWP and advanced data assimilation for satellite, radar, mesonet, and other data sources • Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model • Joint Center for Sat Data Assimilation • Share processing load to overcome computing shortfall that limits CONUS high-res NWP models • Unity of effort for Homeland Security NBC dispersion • Improve interaction: OFCM Workshops in Dec 2001 • One event, one forecast with NWS lead for weather • Common “portal” to support multiple dispersion models: facilitates R&D, V&V, ensembles, backup

17. “Choose The Weather For Battle”