Venezuela

1. MDAW 2013—DCH & MBK Venezuela

3. Fast Facts • Population: 29+ million • Area: 353K+ square miles • Capitol: Caracas • World’s 5th largest oil exporter, massive untapped oil reserves

5. Background • Was settled by upwards of 1m indigenous persons before Spanish colonization • Was visited by Christopher Columbus in 1498 • Spanish colonization began in 1522 • Venezuela’s war of independence began in 1811 and was won after Bolivar won the Battle of Carabono in 1821—became part of Bolivar’s Gran Colombia until it broke away to form Venezuela in 1830 • Slavery was abolished in 1854

7. Background • Monroe Doctrine—territory to the south is in America’s “sphere of influence” • Roosevelt Corollary (TDR)—the U.S. will “help” European states settle any conflicts they have with Latin American countries • Good Neighbor policy (FDR)—backed away from interventionism

9. Background, cont’d • The entire ballgame changed in the 1910s when major oil fields were discovered and developed during the regime of Juan Vicente Gomez • Gomez sold concessions to U.S. and European oil companies • During the post-war era, the government moved to increase its share of oil revenues • Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC (1960) • Oil production was nationalized in the 1970s

11. Background, cont’d • Hugo Chavez led a failed coup in 1992 • Chavez became president in 1999 • Chavez pushed reforms that increased state control of PDVSA—Venezuelan state oil company • Chavez accused the U.S. of backing a coup attempt in 2002 • Venezuela has been subject to defense sales sanctions since 2008 • Chavez died in March—Maduro was elected as his successor • The election saw a diplomatic dispute over alleged U.S. interference

13. Points of Contention • Oil • Venezuelan support for economic relationships/models outside of the “Washington consensus” • Venezuelan support for adversaries of the U.S.—Cuba, Iran, etc. • Venezuela’s support for “terrorist” groups—FARC, Hezbollah, etc.

15. Plan Ideas • Democracy assistance—either to the government or to the opposition • Drugs • Expand counter-drug cooperation • Remove Venezuela from the “non-cooperation” list • Environmental cooperation • Leftist-oriented engagement • Oil • Allow / enable investment in new Venezuelan exploration and production • Remove oil related sanctions

17. Advantage Areas • Bolivarianism Good • China Displacement • Democracy • Economy / Diversification • Iran Displacement • Oil • Russia Displacement • Terrorism • U.S. Credibility / Leadership

19. Negative Gripes • Topicality • Not “engagement” • Not “economic” • Counterplans • Alternate agent (domestic, international) • Engaging government vs. opposition • Unconditional vs. conditional engagement

20. Negative Gripes, cont’d • Disadvantages • Bolivarism / South-South good • China influence good • Iran encirclement • Oil prices (both ways) • Russia influence / arms sales good • Kritiks • Criticisms of economy-centered epistemologies • Criticisms of state-centered epistemologies • Marxism 

21. Geopolitics of Oil • Oil pricing—marginal production cost • Oil prices have an enormous impact on the economy and oil access is core source of conflict between states • U.S. policymakers are obsessed with “energy independence” and “energy security” • Energy independence is a myth—oil is a global market • Energy security is a more realistic option—it depends on a) having reliable supply and b) preventing major shocks that spike global prices

22. Oil, cont’d • Venezuela is a BIG player in current oil politics, and its influence is likely to increase • Peak oil and the transition to “unconventional” and “alternative” fuels • Venezuela as an epicenter for future “heavy oil” production