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Explore the challenges and opportunities for Nigeria's future development and governance, drawing on past experiences and policy advice. Discover the potential for advancing democracy, security, and shared prosperity in Africa.
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Can the Nigerian Project be Salvaged? Growth, Democracy and Security Richard Joseph
Governance, Enterprise and Shared Prosperity “With better governance, I have no doubt that Africa holds the promise of a broader base of prosperity. Witness the extraordinary Witness the extraordinary success of Africans in my country, America. They're doing very well. So they've got the talent, they've got the entrepreneurial spirit. The question is, how do we make sure that they're succeeding here in their home countries?” President Barack Obama, Accra, Ghana, July 2009 “How do we begin to solve these problems in Nigeria where the structures are present but there is no accountability?” Professor Chinua Achebe, January 2011
Developmental Governance “Africa’s future will not differ from the grim present if a Weberian culture of effective and legitimate bureaucratic organization does not take root in African soil. At the center of smart partnerships for African development will be one overriding commitment: building sustainable institutions that actually work as intended. How this very fundamental but revolutionary step can be made is a question for which answers have not been found.” R. Joseph, Smart Partnerships for African Development, US Institute for Peace, May 2002 Consortium for Development Partnerships, 2004 Research Alliance to Combat HIV/AIDS, 2006
Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009 “As the Obama era unfolds, there are four contributions I hope to make to help fulfill the agenda for progress and transformation” Write up the narratives of African, and especially Nigerian, struggles for peace, democracy and social justice that I have personally experienced. Provide policy advice regarding key development challenges in Africa. In the case of Nigeria, at the top of the list is the failure to establish a fully independent, non-partisan, and capable electoral system.
Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009 3. Advance analyses of Africa’s mighty problem which is the failure in many countries to create a universalistic, legitimate, and capable state. 4. Help design a Nigerian Project on sustainable growth and development that would draw on the extensive technological resources, notably in the United States, to address key economic and infrastructure challenges.
Nigeria 2025 “By 2025, if the necessary transformations have occurred, Nigerians should bask in the economic growth that has taken place and the developmental governance for which they have become known. This vision can become a reality.” R. Joseph, June 2009 “I am sure you are one of the optimists who think the current security crisis presents President Goodluck Jonathan an opportunity for fundamental reform of Nigerian governance which he may just grasp.” Dr. Abimbola Agboluaje, February 8, 2012
What is Nigeria? “Nigeria had been formed by the gradual incorporation of different contiguous areas and peoples into the British Empire from 1861 onwards, taking its final shape by 1914, when the celebrated ‘amalgamation’ by Lord Lugardestablished the administrative pattern of a coastal Colony (Lagos and its hinterland) and a Protectorate over the rest of the country…” K.W.J. Post and Michael Vickers, Structure and Conflict in Nigeria (1973) “Before colonialism there were no states called India or Nigeria.” Isaac Chotiner, The New York Times, March 4, 2012
The Making of Nigeria “Any country is, in a sense, an artificial creation. In the case of Nigeria, however, union was so sudden, and included such widely differing groups of peoples that not only the British, who created it, but the inhabitants themselves, have often doubted whether it could survive as a political entity. On 1st October, 1960, despite many difficulties, Nigeria became a sovereign federation and has survived intact despite a protracted civil war.” Michael Crowder, The Story of Nigeria (1962/1978) “Britain’s decision to join the Islamic north of the country with non-Muslim settlements in the south fed tribal conflicts and insurgencies that has lasted to this day.” Isaac Chotiner, March 4, 2012
Thomas Lionel Hodgkin, 1910-1982“He did more than anyone else to establish the serious study of African history” in Britain. Obituary, The Times (London)
The Making of Nigeria “Perhaps the first event in Nigerian history to which a reasonably accurate date can be assigned is the conversion to Islam of Umme (or Humai), Mai of Kanem, shortly before the end of the 11th century…In the 1240s, its [Kanem’s] government built a madrasa for Kanem pilgrims and students residing in Cairo… [Ibn Khaldun,14th century]…his account of the embassy which Kanem sent to al-Mustansir, the founder of the Hafsid dynasty in Tunisia, and the public excitement caused by the gift of a giraffe.” Thomas Hodgkin, Nigerian Perspectives: An Historical Anthology (1960/1975)
Sokoto Caliphate Shaikh Uthman dan Fodio, Jihād, 1804-1809 “Its objectives were always presented in Islamic, not in ethnic terms, and ‘tribalism’ was explicitly and frequently condemned…” “It had a genuine popular basis…It also represented a protest of the Hausa commoners (talakawa) against the old Hausa dynasties – against the oppression of the ruling class as much as against its ‘paganism’ or lack of orthodoxy.” “The kind of state which the leaders of the revolution were pledged to establish was a state in which social justice, administered in the light of the Shari’a by God-fearing rulers, took the place of the arbitrary decisions of irresponsible despots.” T. Hodgkin
Sokoto Caliphate “The most obvious consequence of the jihād was the imposition of the authority of a single government over a large region formerly occupied by a number of competing sovereign states.” “European commentators have tended to underestimate the extent to which the Caliphate survived through the nineteenth century as an effective political system.” “The two major empire-building movements [in Nigeria] which marked the beginning and end of the [19th] century – Fulani and British – had more in common than is sometimes realized.” T. Hodgkin
Kamerun to Nigerian Project “Ruben Um Nyobé and ‘The Kamerun’ Rebellion,”African Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 293 (1974) “Settlers, Strikers and Sans-Travail: The Douala Riots of September 1945,”Journal of African History, Vol. XV, No. 4 (1974) “The Royal Pretender: Prince Douala Manga Bell in Paris, 1919-1922,” Cahiers d’Etudes Africaines, Vol. XIV, No. 54 (1974) “The German Question in French Cameroun, 1919-1939,” Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1975) “National Politics in Postwar Cameroun: The Difficult Birth of the UPC,” Journal of African Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2 (1975) “The Gaullist Legacy: Patterns of French Neo-Colonialism,”Review of African Political Economy, No. 6 (1976)
Kamerun to Nigerian Project Radical Nationalism in Cameroun: Social Origins of the UPC Rebellion (Oxford: The Clarendon Press, 1977)—also published as Le Mouvement Nationaliste au Cameroun (Paris: Karthala, 1986) “National Objectives and Public Accountability,”Issues in the Nigerian Draft Constitution, ed. S. Kumo and A. Aliyu (Zaria, Nigeria: Institute of Administration, 1977) “Affluence and Underdevelopment: The Nigerian Experience,” Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 16, No. 2 (1978) Gaullist Africa: Cameroon under Ahmadu Ahidjo (Enugu, Nigeria: Fourth Dimension Publishers, 1978), editor “Political Parties and Ideology in Nigeria,”Review of African Political Economy, No. 13 (1979)
Conference on Nigerian Draft Constitution March 1977
Knowledge Generation & Social Progress “The military regarded the university as an enemy-formation … and tried hard to empty the Nigerian university of its intellectual contents …[resulting in] the scattering of Nigeria’s best brains in foreign universities and other institutions.” “...our commitment to the revitalization of the educational system in Ekiti State. We recognize the importance of the university as a fountain of knowledge-generation and social progress.” Governor Kayode Fayemi
Ekiti Governor Dr. Kayode Fayemi, Professors M. Aluko and R. Joseph
Dysfunction & Sub-Optimalism “They have stolen much of our collective wealth and left us with little to fight our massive poverty. They have not created a united country…They have failed to give us appropriate infrastructure…They have not given us the level of peace and stability needed to attract sufficient foreign investment…They have not managed to diversify our economy despite the billions they have earned from oil. They have maintained a huge developmental gap between policy and implementation.” Prof. Ebere Onwudiwe, 2009
Growth & Development Debate British aid agency Oxfam has flayed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) for their complacent approach to the problems caused in sub-Saharan Africa because of its huge external debt, which is in excess of $183 billion. "After a decade of structural adjustment programs implemented under the tutelage of the World Bank and the IMF, Africa remains trapped in a downward spiral of economic and social decline and poverty is increasing. [There is] "overwhelming evidence that existing adjustment policies have failed: they have neither created a platform for sustainable recovery nor addressed the central problem of poverty alleviation.” November, 1993
Growth & Development Debate “IMF managing director Michel Camdessus reacted angrily to the Oxfam report and said he, too, feared "the sinking of a continent" and was disturbed that per capita growth rates in Africa had been falling for the last 20 years… The level of debt "has remained an overwhelming obstacle" to recovery and calls for debt forgiveness by the G-7.” “Camdessus added African countries needed to make important changes, including putting the right macroeconomic policies in place and reforming and strengthening governmental institutions.” November 1993
Growth & Development Debate “Let me tell you why I believe that success is possible. The situation in Africa has improved. .. I have no intention of overlooking the poverty and all the deficiencies that we still face… This does not apply to the countries ravaged by war, fratricidal conflicts, and serious political upheavals… It is clear that an economic recovery began in 1994. Real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to average roughly 5 percent in 1996-97, compared with only 1 percent in 1991-93. And at last, real per capita GDP growth will be clearly positive for the first time in many years.” Michel Camdessus, July 1996
Growth & Development Debate “The "Afro-pessimists" will tell you that this recovery will be short-lived—that it is readily explained by an uptick in the terms of trade due to shifts in commodity prices. How wrong they are. According to the most rigorous studies, Africa's stronger growth is explained not by higher commodity prices, but by the fact that an increasing number of countries have undertaken courageous adjustment and structural reform programs. This is the key to Africa's progress.” Michel Camdessus, July 1996
IMF Reform Agenda What did these [reform] programs involve? • Reducing public sector deficits [so they] could be financed without fanning inflation or building up excessive debt • maintaining monetary stability while maintaining realistic exchange rates and liberalizing prices • mobilizing domestic savings and liberalizing trade • freeing the productive energies of the economies through comprehensive structural reform. Michel Camdessus, July 1996
Emerging Africa • more democratic and accountable governments • more sensible economic policies • end of the debt crisis and better relations with external agencies • new technologies and opportunities for business and political accountability • a new generation of policymakers, activists and business leaders Steven Radelet , 2010
The Radelet Narrative: Africa, 1995 - 2010 • Emerging Africa • Threshold Countries • Non-Emerging Countries • Oil–Exporters
Africa Rising: The Hopeful Continent “Over the past decade six of the world’s ten fastest-growing countries were African. In eight of the past ten years, Africa has grown faster than East Asia, including Japan. Even allowing for the knock-on effect of the northern hemisphere’s slowdown, the IMF expects Africa to grow by 6% this year and nearly 6% in 2012, about the same as Asia.” The Economist, December 3, 2011 Vijay Rajahan, Africa Rising, 2010
Africa Rising: The Hopeful Continent “Africa is on the move: from basket case to a potential bread basket, from dodgy debtor to investor opportunity.” “A market of nearly 1 billion people, about a third of them under 21, is making up for five wasted post-independence decades.” “There is a wave of creativity: novelists and artists, film-makers and musicians, designers and stylists, all are thriving.” Michael Holman, Financial Times, February 28, 2012
Conflicting Narratives Sub-Saharan Africa “has an unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth” and “could be on the brink of an economic takeoff, much like China was 30 years ago, and India 20 years ago.” World Bank, Africa Regional Strategy, March 2011 “Progress, stagnation and discouraging regression continue to co-exist on the continent.” Africa Progress Panel, 2011 (Kofi Annan, Chairman)
Conflicting Narratives “Radical and growing economic inequality animated much of what was at stake in the various Arab uprisings, and it will play a major role in shaping African politics…The disaffected [Tunisian] street vendor who set himself alight was not so different from many disaffected young men of Nairobi and Kampala’s slums. They are Africa’s overwhelming majority: poor, marginalized and angry about corruption and soaring food and fuel prices. It is those young men who endure the daily humiliations of poverty, struggling to find jobs as elites crow about ‘growth’ and an African renaissance.” John Githongo, Anti-Corruption Crusader, Kenya, July 2011
Nigerian Narratives “We are going down an escalator that is going up.” Dele Olojede, Publisher, NEXT newspaper, Lagos “We have major systemic issues arising from decades of unchecked corruption. Those systems, the beneficiaries, the sectional interests and [others] that depend on these benefits wouldn't just fold their arms while we threaten their interests. We have begun a very painful process of correcting the system. It is no easy feat…What we are implementing are not theoretical solutions but solutions aimed at correcting the very ills plaguing our country.” Dr. NgoziOkonjo-Iweala, Nigerian Minister of Finance, January 2012
Emerging Africa and Nigeria For the first time, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty – less than $1.25 a day – fell in every developing region from 2005-2010. In sub-Saharan Africa [it dropped]…below 50% for the first time. The World Bank, February 29, 2012 In Nigeria, poverty continues to increase. 61% of Nigerians, 97.6 million, live on less than $1 a day. Poverty is 10% higher in 2010 than in 2004. Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, February 13, 2012
