A Political Perception Map of the Palestinians

1. A Political Perception Map of the Palestinians Contents HAMANAKA Shingo, Ph.D. Yamagata University, JAPAN • (1) Outline • (2) Illustration of a Map • Data and Methods • Political Perception Map • (3) Analysis • Hypotheses and Procedure • Regressions and Findings • (4) Conclusion World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies, Multiple Identity of the Arab People based on the Results of Recent Poll Survey-Panel Part 2: Political Perception Map of Arab People

2. (1) Outline Research Subject • Middle Eastern specialists depend on the framework of International Politics, especially “balance of power” or “the modern state system.” • However, nobody has ever tried to depict the Middle Eastern Regional System explicitly. • My research subject is to present a visualization of the ME Regional System.

3. (1) Outline Syrian Political Perception Map - Comparison Hegemony in the Eastern Arab region Bipolar System Similarity to the US Source: Aoyama and Hamanaka (2009)

4. (1) Outline Egyptian Political Perception Map - Comparison Similarity to the US Great Powers Middle Powers? Arab System? Uruba Source: Aoyama (2010)

5. (1) Outline Political Perception Map of the Palestinians Great Powers Middle Eastern Regional System Identity and consciousness

6. (1) Outline Constructivism • This approach proposes that the concept of identity determines interactive process between states. • My project follows this idea to depict a political perception map by the identities of the Palestinians.

7. (1) Outline Research Strategy • I will use Factor Analysis to illustrate the political perception map of Palestinians. • The map is composed of invisible factors behind the attitudes or opinions on the Middle Eastern Politics. • In regression models, I will find the effect of ideologies, policy alternatives, and personal information path on Uruba and policy similarity to the US.

8. Remaining Contents • (2) Illustration of a Map • Data and Methods • Political Perception Map • (3) Analysis • Hypotheses and Procedure • Regressions and Findings • (4) Conclusion

9. (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- Palestinian Survey Data • Sample: 18-65 year old residents of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem • Sampling Method: Stratified three stage random sample of 800 participants • JMCC conducted face-to-face interviews in May 2009.

10. (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- Questions for Factor Analysis • “To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish political stability in the ME?”

11. (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- “To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish political stability in the Middle East?”

12. (2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods- Factor Analysis - Image Factor loading 1st Factor 2nd Factor

13. Factor Matrix

14. (2) Illustration of a Map - Political Perception Map- Political Perception Map “Identities are not only personal or psychological, but are also social, influenced by the actor’s interaction with others.” S.Telhami and M.Barnett Great Powers Middle Eastern Regional System

15. (2) Illustration of a Map - Political Perception Map- What do two factors mean? • The horizontal factor is composed of countries in the Arabian Peninsula, and in the Fertile Crescent. It means Uruba. • The United States gets the highest score of the vertical factor and Western countries follow the US. It means foreign policy similar to the US.

16. (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- What is the cognitive construct in the Map? Policy similar to the US Ideologies and opinions Identity and Perception Political Ideologies Uruba Policy Opinions Personal Influence Mass Media

17. (4) Conclusion Implications • The main component of the Map is Uruba. • Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan occupy the center position of the Map. • These powers have the gravity in the international system. • Data analyses support the literature that political ideologies affect the attitudes or opinions on politics.

18. (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- Political Ideologies – ordered scale Which ideological/ political trends are you sympathized with? Please select up to three trends and put numbers (1,2 or 3) in order of priority. 2 points 1 point 3 points

19. (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- Policy Options – nominal scale

20. (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- Personal Influence – nominal scale

21. (3) Analysis - Hypotheses and Procedure- Media Information – ordered scale

22. (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- Regression Models on Uruba

23. (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- Results of the regression models • Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a statistically significant impact on Uruba. • Positive Impact on Uruba • Support a state in the historical Palestine • Under the influence of neighbors • Getting information from Arab Satellite TV • Negative Impact on Uruba • Support disarmament of resistance • Under the influence of the Government

24. (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- Regressions on policy similar to the US

25. (3) Analysis - Regressions and Findings- Results of the regression models • Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a negative impact on policies similar to the US. • The direction of policy alternativesis almost same as them of the US. • Bi-National State, and Disarmament are positive • Return of Refugee, and Improvement of Living are negative • Non-Arab media watchers and listeners are positive to Middle East policies of the US.