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ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia

Neva Pristov ARSO. ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia. The operational ALADIN. si04da: 4 runs per day 00, 06, 12 ,18 UTC + 54 4 . 4 km, linear grid , 180s 43 vertical levels 3h coupling with ARPEGE data assimilation si09, si09ec: 4 runs per day +72(60) 9 . 5 km, linear grid , 400s

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ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia

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  1. Neva Pristov ARSO ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia

  2. The operational ALADIN si04da: • 4 runs per day • 00,06,12,18 UTC +54 • 4.4 km, linear grid, 180s • 43 vertical levels • 3h coupling with ARPEGE • data assimilation si09, si09ec: • 4 runs per day +72(60) • 9.5 km, linear grid, 400s • 43 vertical levels • initial and LBC ARPEGE, IFS

  3. 4.4 km data assimilation • B-matrix (downscaled ARPEGE) • CANARI surface analysis • 3D-Var upper air assimilation, • Surface blending step which merges CANARI surface analysis over land, ARPEGE sea surface analysis and 3D-Var analysis • 6-h forecast as first guess (long cut-off ARPEGE LBC), • Digital filter initialization • Cycling of hydrometeors, 3MT variables • OPLACE observation + local SYNOP data

  4. Assimilation suite performance RMSE differences between data assimilation and dynamical adaptation Jan –Apr 2012 12 run upper air scores mostly neutral, positive in the first few hours of forecast Wind speed Temperature

  5. Assimilation suite performance black - data assimilation red - dynamical adaptation 2m Temperature, Jan –Apr 2012 12 run Improved by data assimilation BIAS RMSE

  6. Products for forecasters • output - 1 hour • zoom - domain around Slovenia • precipitation, simulated radar reflectivity • time and vertical cross sections

  7. 1h precipitation

  8. simulated radar reflectivity

  9. Cold front

  10. Cold front

  11. Few remarks • Wind • wind gusts hard to tune for all situations • 2m temperature • weakness, daily cycle • Low cloudiness • Precipitation, Convection • improving • advection of convection with general flow?

  12. Wind gusts Tuning of FACRAF Red -observations

  13. Wind from LAEF

  14. 2m temperature

  15. 2m temperature

  16. Low cloudiness, 2m temperature November 2011

  17. Low cloudiness, 2m temperature November 2011 2m temperature Ljubljana

  18. Low cloudiness, 2m temperature November 2011 2m temperature Novo Mesto

  19. Low cloudiness, 2m temperature November 2011 2m temperature at 12 UTC Ljubljana red – ECMFF blue – si04da difference to 10 deg.

  20. Low cloudiness levels 43 4.4 km levels 70

  21. Low cloudiness levels 43 4.4 km levels 70

  22. Extreme precipitation September 2007 24h precipitation ALADIN 2007 9.5 km

  23. Extreme precipitation ALADIN 2009 9.5 km

  24. Extreme precipitation ALADIN 2010 4.4 km

  25. Extreme precipitation ALADIN 2011 4.4 km DA

  26. Applications using ALADIN data • INCA analysis and nowcasting system • BOBER hydrological forecast for Sava, Soča and Mura river catchment • NAPOM – 3D sigma-coordinate ocean model set up in Northern Adriatic • CAMx photochemical dispersion model

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