Gorkha Earthquake: Impact, Lessons, Resilience

1. 46thSatsang of Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Gorkha Earthquake 2015: Consolidating the Lessons Learned for Better Resilience NWCF+IDRC+TAF July 21-22, 2016 Kathmandu Gorkha Earthquake: Impact, Lessons, Resilience Amod M. Dixit Executive Director, NSET July 21, 2016

2. Realities of Life .. … Photo credits: Dr. Soma NathSapkota Earthquakes are inevitable They will cause Costly Damage that need Recovery

3. Expected Earthquake, Unexpected Consequences The Earthquake was expected, consequences were unexpected • Very little damage for the MAGNITUDE in KV • Tall Structures because of long period of shaking • Very poorly constructed or maintained structures damaged in Kathmandu

4. 1934 Bihar-Nepal EQ

5. Building – the Main Culprit • Building vulnerabilities • >95% of death due to building collapse • damage and losses in housing and settlement contributed 50% of total value of disaster effects (PDNA, 2015) • Prevailing Building Production Process creates Physical Vulnerabilities • Need to improve Building Construction Practices (Implement NBC)

6. Shelter Vulnerabilities Revealed by Gorkha EQ • Total Disaster Effects = 706,461 (MNPR) • Damage & Losses to Housing and Human Settlements = 350,540MNPR (49.6%) • New Constructions: 500,000 units • Retrofitting: 200,000 units • Repair and Maintenance: 55,000 units

7. Shelter Vulnerabilities Revealed by Gorkha EQ • Total Disaster Effects = 706,461 (MNPR) • Damage & Losses to Housing and Human Settlements = 350,540MNPR (49.6%) • New Constructions: 500,000 units • Retrofitting: 200,000 units • Repair and Maintenance: 55,000 units

8. ARE THERE ANY MORE VULNERABILITIES OTHER THAN BUILDINGS?

9. OTHER Vulnerabilities Revealed by Gorkha EQ • Recovery -Sikkim Earthquake (Sept 2011) • Damage 30,000 buildings • Reconstruction Cost (estd): 100mUS$ • Nominal Organized reconstruction (schools) • Earthquake is more of a Political Phenomenon than natural/physical • Political/economic impacts post Tian Shan, Gujarat, Pakistan, Udaypur, Eqs, Vs Gorkha Eq.

11. Enhancing Earthquake Safety Earthquake Safety Stop Increasing Risk == BUILDING CODE IMPLMNT Be Prepared = MEDICAL RESPONSE, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, SECONDARY HAZARD Decrease Existing Risk == SEISMIC RETROFITTING (CritFac)

12. OTHER Vulnerabilities (2) Revealed by Gorkha EQ • SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING LOW • Rumor, Scare, interpretation of “Aftershocks” • DCH – subjective rejection • All educated became seismologists! Govt Officials – engineers! • Insurance Coverage Low, Not as a Risk Distribution Instrument, Zero research!

13. OTHER Vulnerabilities (3) Revealed by Gorkha EQ • Learning Lessons from Gujarat, Kashmir, Bam, Jogja, Ishinomaki? • WHAAAT? OK, OK, I Know, I Know! • Assistance for BBB or Compensation? • Reconstruction Offers The Largest Opportunity For Risk Reduction(20k code compliant bldgs/yrvs 100k CC bldg/yr • No Transitional Shelter? Can any nation go from Temporary Shelter to Permanent shelter in 1 yr?

14. RESILIENCE • Direct (Verbatim) translation from English does not exist – Need a new Nepali definition • But Resilience exists with us as a trait – almost omnipresent • Sikkim earthquake affected rebuilding themselves! • No trade – No Prblm, No NRA – No Prblm • We are lucky (entire South Asia)

15. RESILIENCE (2) • High and Increasing EQ Awareness • Solid National Strategies; • Unique NBC ~ different stds for different categories of houses • NBC Implementation Efforts • NBC & DRM is MCPM, MOUs • Capacity bldg using stdnat curricula • Guidelines, Success stories

16. RESILIENCE (3) • All retrofitted school buildings continued providing emergency services • Great contribution in continuing classes post earthquake trauma • Many many un-retrofitted school buildings damaged beyond repair • No casualty inside schools due to “Lucky Earthquake” in terms of dayand time

17. SUCCESSFUL ERM PROGS

18. Extricated Victims and Recovered Dead Bodies: Gorkha Earthquake 2015 Courtesy: EERI Housner Fellow Team to Gorkha Earthquake, 2015

20. Overview, Achievement, and Future Plan Radio Program • 63 weeks/28 radios, • 91 weeks/20 radios, • 20 PSAs 10 times a day

21. Baliyo Ghar AKA Build Back Safer In Earthquake Reconstruction >70% of reconstructed houses at program area will compliance to the NBC At least one trained mason’s involvement in housing construction. House owner awareness about the safer construction. Scaled up in awareness on disaster resilient construction. Development of policy and guidelines for safer construction

22. Disaster Calendar - DesInventar Database (1971-2014) Note: Earthquake can occur at any time, and hence it has no seasonal variation

23. Way Forward (some ideas) • Formal DRM Education in Schools and Universities • Promote & Use Science & Technology, create condition for Innovation • NSC is a research Institution • NSC should be a national scientific Coordinator, Research promoter, and a Leader Institution • DRM is more than RESCUE & RELIEF • very specialized science • Emergency (Disaster) Response is also a science

24. Way Forward … ... (2) • Comprehensive National Preparedness for Future Earthquakes • They are inevitable • No need to die from Natural Hazards! • Comprehensive National Programs for DRM for different natural hazards with • Assessment, Analysis, Understanding, Implementation, Learning, Institutionalization, Scaling up • Decentralization (Empowerment) to the Last Mile

25. Forget Not The Lessons Learned From Past Episodes Of Natural Hazard Risk! Because Thousands of our sisters and brothers sacrificed their lives while we learned these lessons!

26. Thank You!