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In perspective : the spectacular growth of the thin-film industry

In perspective : the spectacular growth of the thin-film industry. Travis Bradford Solarplaza : The Thin-film Future June 11, 2008 – Munich, Germany. Solar Revolution. From MIT Press – September 2006 Based on Economic-only Projection Models

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In perspective : the spectacular growth of the thin-film industry

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  1. In perspective: the spectacular growth of the thin-film industry Travis Bradford Solarplaza: The Thin-film Future June 11, 2008 – Munich, Germany

  2. Solar Revolution • From MIT Press – September 2006 • Based on Economic-only Projection Models • Not only will we reach grid-parity, but permanently exceed it • Disruptive Technological Transformation = HUGE BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

  3. Meeting the Need for InformationThe Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development Institute Research Products 2008

  4. Talk Outline • Global PV Forecast – Supply, Demand, and Price Impacts • Thin Film Technologies • Forecasting Thin Film to 2012

  5. Global PV Forecast – Supply, Demand, and Price Impacts

  6. 51% global growth surprisingly strong. Due to more polysilicon available than commonly thought. Production moving to Asia – China and Taiwan US production will grow rapidly in 2007 and beyond 1 GW by 2010??? Global Producers - 2007 All figures in MW-dc of Cells

  7. No sign of consolidation Second tier majors showing dynamic growth Chinese, Taiwanese, US owned producers Top 15 Producers - 2007 All figures in MW-dc of Cells

  8. US production growth almost completely driven by First Solar - $2.45 per Watt selling price Polysilicon shortage pinched majors US Producers - 2007 All figures in MW-dc of Cells

  9. Standardized Incentives Incentives Dropping – some quickly!!!

  10. Mid-Year 2008 Supply Forecasts Polysilicon supply in tons of polysilicon. Thin film and Total Supply in MW-dc of Modules

  11. Supply/ Demand Reconciliation All figures in MW-dc of Modules

  12. Module Price Forecasts

  13. Thin Film Technologies

  14. Thin Film Report 2008 Report available July 20, 2008. Tracks over 135 TF companies. Shows increasing penetration of all technologies – CdTe, CIGS, and A-Si Forecasts out to 2012, but require a new estimation methodology beyond 2010 to account for changing market dynamics.

  15. Many companies, Many technologies A-Si dominates number of companies due to ease of entry into business with prepackaged equipment solutions

  16. Cadmium Telluride Leads Thin Film Deployment First Solar costs at less than $1.25 per Watt Will be below $1.00 per Watt by 2009 Only glass packaging, though

  17. a-Si – Flexible or Glass-based

  18. Applied Materials Customers Applied Customers are ordering lots of systems, but efficiency remains a question

  19. Oerlikon Customers Oerlikon has the lead in field deployments, but has had to switch to tandem junction due to efficiency issues in single-junction

  20. CIGS Technology Still has Potential • Venture backed CIGS companies are ready to break out • Manufacturing equipment cost and speed to build are major growth factor

  21. Chinese Producers Swarm In Never far behind, China drives to thin film

  22. Forecasting Thin Film to 2012 (preliminary)

  23. Forecast to 2012 – By Technology Projected production exceeds 4 GW in 2010 Potential production could be 17 GW by 2012

  24. Many Technology Hands Make Light Work

  25. Rigid versus Flexible Substrates

  26. Surge of Commercial Producers through 2012 20 companies cross commercial threshold each year for next 3 years.

  27. Current Market Dynamics – Crystalline vs. Thin Film Current market dynamics suggest prices and costs not correlated

  28. Thin Film Penetration 2010 Low vs. high demand scenarios create very different industry dynamics

  29. Preliminary Results – TF beats A-Si wins the race for buzz and long term potential with Applied, Oerlikon, and Sharp leading a pool of 75 companies CdTe is the current leader, but feedstock issues haunt leading firm FirstSolar CIGS is on the cusp of substantial deployment with production module efficiencies reaching 10 percent in late 2008

  30. Thank You !

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