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Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm University

Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm University Martin Camitz. A stochastic model of a moderately contagious disease 1 in Sweden and the effect of restricting travel as a control strategy. 1 Read SARS. A stochastic model etc…. About the model

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Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm University

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  1. Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm University Martin Camitz

  2. A stochastic model of a moderately contagious disease1 in Sweden and the effect of restricting travel as a control strategy 1Read SARS

  3. A stochastic model etc… • About the model • Hufnagel et al’s model1 • Results 1Hufnagel, L., D. Brockmann, and T. Geisel, Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004. 101(42): p. 15124-15129.

  4. What happens? When does this happen? I I I R Stochasticitics… what? +

  5. Very random

  6. L S I R SLIR-model 3 events etc… ×289 • Number of infectious • Infectiousness • Incubation time • Recovery time

  7. L S I R in Solna SLIR-model 3 events • Number of infectious • Infectiousness • Incubation time • Recovery time in Solna • Infectious in other municipalities • Travel intensity

  8. L S I R Intensities L Q I R Q Q • Number of infectious • Infectiousness • Incubation time • Recovery time in Solna • Infectious in other municipalities • Travel intensity

  9. I Q 1. Pick an event Stockholm L R Q Q 2. Pick a time step Dt Kalmar L I R Q Q Q Solna L I Q Q 3. Update intensities 4. Repeat from 1.

  10. Run it on a really big PC…

  11. You might get something like this

  12. Or this

  13. Just for sports, let’s not stop this time.

  14. Much later… • 1000 runs • 60 days • Average it all out

  15. Two questions • What happens if we restrict travel? • Say longer journeys than 50 km or 20 km no longer permitted. • What if traveling doesn’t spread SARS as much as we thought?

  16. Restricting travel

  17. Restricting travel

  18. Fiddling with inter-municipal infectiousness • Things that probably affect g • Total travel intensity • Medium of travel • Type of transmission • Does it matter?

  19. Fiddling with g

  20. Results • It works! • Travel restrictions slow the spread • Lower incidence after 60 days • Globally and locally • Comparatative results independent of g

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