Migration – commuting substitution Commuting potential and interregional migration propensity

1. Migration – commuting substitutionCommuting potential and interregional migration propensity Emma LundholmUmeå UniversitySwedenEmma.Lundholm@geography.umu.se

2. Development in Sweden and other European countries………. • Migration tolerance has decreased • Commuting tolerance has increased

3. Substitution hypothesis: ”people are today more likely to choose commuting over other strategies, including interregional migration”

4. Substitute or complement?(Evers & Van der Veen, 1995) • It is more convinient to commute • Migration is redundant • Enables a more free choice of settlement • It is more difficult to migrate • Commuting is the solution to achieve labour market matching

5. Previous studies have shown….. People who live in regions with good commuting potential are less likely to migrate Eliasson, Lindgren, and Westerlund 2003 Eriksson, Lindgren, and Malmberg 2007 Van Ham, Mulder, and Hooimeijer 2001 This is a study of this relationship over time

6. Empirical question: Have migration propensities declined more in regions with better commuting potential? cross-sections 1970, 1985, 2001

7. Narrow labour market 0-30 km Extensivelabour market30-80 km Commuting potential = size of labour market Approximated as population at a given eucledian distance

8. Method andData • Register data, entire Swedish population in working age (1970, 1985, 2001) • Interregional migration = migrants moving >150 kilometer • Logistic regression Commuting potential narrow labour market extensive labour market Dependant variable:Interregional migration propensity Control variables:age,sex,civil status,children in household,education level,employment,student, recent migration

9. Results • Migration was less likely among persons living in regions with better commuting potential • The inhibiting effect of residing in a large labour market was the same in all three years • no support for the hypothesis that commuting potential reduce interregional migration more today

11. Has increased job commuting substituted interregional migration or has decreased interregional migration forced the process of job commuting?

12. Summary • Commuting potential is a factor that can contribute to non-migration • No direct casual relationship between increase in commuting and lower migration rates over time • Increased migration to commuting substitution might not be a general trend but rather a tendency among increasingly immobile groups, such as dual income households

13. Thank You!