1 / 7

A B R U P T

A B R U P T. c l i m a t e c h a n g e. Syd Partridge. Shannon Buckley. EESC W4400. 5 December 2006. definition:.

elwyn
Download Presentation

A B R U P T

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. A B R U P T c l i m a t e c h a n g e Syd Partridge Shannon Buckley EESC W4400 5 December 2006

  2. definition: ‘transition of the climate system into a different state (of temperature, rainfall, and other aspects) on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing (mechanistic); change of the climate system that is faster than the adaptation time of social and/or ecosystems (impacts)’ source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/glossary.html

  3. source: Hansen, et al., Science 305 (13), 2004 triggers o c e a n c o n v e y o r b e l t o r b i t a l f o r c i n g s

  4. the last glaciation * d a n s g a a r d – o e s c h g e r (d/o) e v e n t s (n u m b e r s) * h e i n r i c h e v e n t s (r e d s q u a r e s) * y o u n g e r d r y a s source: Rahmstorf 2002

  5. possible effects * r e g i o n a l c o o l i n g i n n o r t h a t l a n t i c l a s t i n g h u n d r e d s o f y e a r s * r e g i o n a l d r o u g h t s a n d f l o o d s * l i k e l y s t r a i n o n f o o d s e c u r I t y * g l o b a l e f f e c t s ?

  6. the future U N C E R T A I N T Y * m o d e l f l a w s * n o n – l i n e a r i t y * l a c k o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y n e a r t h r e s h o l d s * l o w p r o b a b i l i t y for n e x t 1 0 0 y e a r s * e v i d e n c e o f c i r c u l a t i o n d e c l i n e ?

  7. Summary • Paleoclimate evidence suggests abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout Earth’s past. • Consequences of future abrupt climate change are possibly severe, but uncertainties in models and triggers are still very high. Future studies are ongoing to resolve these issues. • It is thought that increased greenhouse forcing from human activity is increasing the likelihood of abrupt climate change in the future.

More Related