Dr Steve Dorling School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia

1. Southern Africa’s Hydro-Economy and Water Security (SAHEWS)- Integrating Seasonal Forecasting into Decision-Making Dr Steve Dorling School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom s.dorling@uea.ac.uk WWOSC 2014 Montreal, Canada, Sunday 17th August

2. SAHEWS Partners • Climatic Research Unit and Water Security Research Centre (University of East Anglia, UK) • Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics, UK) Principal Investigator: Prof Declan Conway • International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI, CGIAR, USA) • The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR, South Africa) • Humboldt University (Germany) SAHEWS is funded by the Belmont Forum and the G8 Research Councils’ Initiative on Freshwater Security

3. Context for SAHEWS • Water security in Southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: • rapid population growth • chronic and drought-induced episodic food shortage • growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand • transboundaryand regional allocation issues • strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future.

4. SAHEWS AIMS SAHEWS is a two-year collaborative research program, which aims to realise opportunities for more effective water management in Southern Africa by addressing crucial knowledge gaps and integrating climate information with better understanding of economic linkages in water, food and energy. Sustainability in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus or “resource trilemma” - Bonn, Germany 2014 Nexus Conference “The nexus is calling for responsible governance of natural resources and a broad involvement of stakeholders to collaboratively work toward sustainable development”.

5. SAHEWS Project Overview The benefits from seasonal forecasting for reducing net food and energy imports in southern Africa through enhanced agricultural and hydropower production/energy mix have yet to be studied. SAHEWS is working with end-users and wider stakeholders to help realise the opportunities for more effective water management in Southern Africa through the following: • Improving understanding of hydro-meteorological variability and seasonal forecast reliability across Southern Africa; • Improving understanding and characterization of Southern Africa’s hydro-economy and large-scale drivers of freshwater variability; • Enhancing knowledge use by decision-makers in the region through case study collaborations following a research co-design process

6. Hydropower Statistics – SAPP

8. Macroeconomic and Water/Energy Indicators of Climate Exposure in Southern Africa (1)

9. Macroeconomic and Water/Energy Indicators of Climate Exposure in Southern Africa (2)

11. KARIBA RESERVOIR BASIN KARIBA INFLOW RAINFALL Onset

12. SPILLWAY GATES OPENED FOR THE SECOND TIME IN 2011 Due to exceptional rains over the entire Zambezi Basin during the 2010/2011 rainy season, the Zambezi flood waters were the highest seen for many years. The Zambezi River Authority opened up to four spillway gates at the Kariba Dam during February/March 2011 to lower the Lake levels in readiness for the flood waters to come.

13. Food Price Shocks The Food Price Index reflects changes in the (1) sugar, (2) dairy, (3) cereals, (4) Meat and (5) oil and fat markets.

14. The IMPACT Modeling Suite: Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and partial equilibrium economic models

15. IMPACT - Model Structure Source: Rosegrant et al. (2012)

16. Incorporating Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting (PSF) into the IMPACT Model • Objectives • Valuation of seasonal forecasting information and forecasting “skills” • Provide policy insights and guide responses to “bad weather” by running the model in an “operational mode” using forecasting information • PSF and forecasting “skills” • PSF given as events/categories and probabilities • PSF skills represented by a conditional probability matrix

17. Study 2: Food Security in Malawi Maize production losses during drought years

18. Study 2: Food Security in Malawi GDP and poverty impacts during drought years

19. Study 2: Food Security in Malawi Using seasonal forecasts to improve the Subsidy Program • Planting/growing season starts in November/December • In June, government decides how much fertilizer to import and which seeds to use (i.e., hybrid or composite) • With accurate forecasts, government might prefer composites • i.e., Composites can be recycled, while retaining yield gain over local varieties (but not hybrids) • Government might also stop the program in bad years and instead buy forward on regional maize markets

20. Stakeholder-led decision support modelling The stakeholders Residents Parish councillors Recreation Conservation groups Regulators Scientists Industry Planning authorities Land owners/ managers Tourism industry National Governments Water Utilities And more ...

21. Southern Africa’s Hydro-Economy and Water Security (SAHEWS) Dr Steve Dorling School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom s.dorling@uea.ac.uk WWOSC 2014 Montreal, Canada, Sunday 17th August

22. Forecasts during the 2010/11 La Niña