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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. Randy Smith SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH. Industry Analysis. Past Performance. Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005. 3.4%. 0.6%.
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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Randy SmithSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005 3.4% 0.6%
Total U.S.Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005 CAGR – 2.1%
Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent ChangeJan 2001 – August 2005
Total U.S.Room Demand – Actual and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005
Total U.S.Room Demand – Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to 2005 August Peak CAGR – 2.7% CAGR – 1.9%
Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent ChangeJan 2001 – August 2005
Total U.S.Seasonally Adjusted Room Supply and DemandJanuary 1989 to August 2005 39.9% 37.1%
Total United StatesOccupancy PercentTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005 64.9% 63.3% Feb 2001 Aug 05 62.2% Sep 95 & May 96 61.9 % December 1991 58.5% Aug 02 & May 03
Total U.S.Occupancy Percent – 12 Month MA and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005 12 MA Lags
Total U.S.Occupancy PercentJanuary 1989 to August 2005 12 MA Lags
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005 Divergence? Divergence
Total United StatesAverage Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005 $86.36 June 2001 Peak CAGR – 4.4% $89.13 Aug 05 Long Term CAGR – 2.9% $54.93 Jan 1989
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005 8.1% 6.5% 6.5% Feb 01 Feb 05 8.1% Feb 97 -2.6% Oct 91 -10.6% Jun 02
Total U.S.Seasonally Adjusted Room RevenuesJanuary 1989 to August 2005 Peak CAGR – 7.1% Long-Term CAGR – 4.9%
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeAugust YTD
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent 28-Day Moving AverageAug 7, 2005– October 16, 2005
Total United StatesADR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 7, 2005 – October 16, 2005
Total United StatesRevPAR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 7, 2005– October 16, 2005
Chain ScalesRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD
Location SegmentsAverage Daily Rate (In Dollars)August 2005 YTD
Location SegmentsSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD
Location SegmentsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD
Location SegmentsRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD
Key 15 MarketsRoom Supply Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsRoom Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year
Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year
Top 10 MarketsLTM August 2005 RevPar Change 34.2% 32.2% 18.9% 16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 14.2% 12.0% Source: Smith Travel Research
Bottom 10 MarketsLTM August 2005 RevPar Change Source: Smith Travel Research
California Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1989 – August 2005
Florida Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1989 – August 2005
New York City Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1987 – August 2005
Hurricane Katrina Impactas of 10/07/2005 SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
New Orleans • 265 Hotels – 39K Rooms • $1 Billion annual room revenue • #17 based on room revenue • #18 based on room supply
8 Impacted TractsYTD OCC through July 2005 64.2% 77.3% 65.2% 62.5% 75.2% 72.8% 66.0% 59.3%
8 Impacted Tracts – Verified Open/Close* *as of 10/07/2005