The Philippine National Situation

1. August 2009 The Philippine National Situation

2. Outline of Presentation • Environmental Snapshot • Economic Situation • Social Condition • Political Context

3. EnviromentalSnapshop • The Philippines is a “climate hotspot” • Vulnerable to the worst manifestations of climate change • Close to 700 sq km of land area in the country will gradually be submerged • A one-meter rise in sea level may affect 64 out of 81 provinces by 2095 to 2100 • Severe crisis in fresh water supply (2013)

4. Environmental Snapshot • Only 36% of the river systems can be classified as possible sources of public water supply • 50 of the 421 rivers in the country can be considered as biologically dead • 15 % do not have access to safe drinking water • 28 % do not have sanitary toilets

5. Extinction of Species and loss of biodiversity • Out of the 1,137 endemic animal species, 582 of these are already threatened • 227 of the 10,000 to 14,000 species of plants are also threatened(Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau) • 90 out of the 99 watersheds of the country are considered to be “hydrologically critical” • Logging (both legal and illegal) • Uncontrolled land use for mining, overgrazing, agri expansion, industrialization

6. Economy

7. Continuing Social Crises About 27.6 Million Filipinos live below the poverty line. (NSCB) 43.5% LUZON 32.4% MINDANAO 24.1% VISAYAS In Sept. ‘07, the hunger was at its peak with 2.4 million people having to eat nothing at all An economy of contradiction… • Growing Economy • “Ramdamkoangpag-asenso”t.v. ad • Considered to be the best performing middle economy in Asia • GDP grew by 7.3% (2007) • GNP grew by 8.3% (2007) • Peso-Dollar exchange (Ph47) • Budget deficit close to a balance (32B)

8. Social Snapshots • 3.7M houses needed for the poor (2006, CODE) • The average household income is Php408 while a family needs at least Php700 a day • Non ARB farmers only make Php44 a day

9. Labor and Employment • 2.8 M Filipinos are unemployed • Jobs mostly under the unskilled category • Contractual jobs: 33.7 M of 36.4 M total labor force • Greater problem of underemployment • 1 out of 4 employed Filipinos in the country were over employed

10. Healthcare & Poverty Nexus • The number of hospitals in the country decreased by 55% over the last 20 years (PMA) • 62% of Filipinos die without being seen by a healthcare professional • 58.8M Filipinos have no regular access to lifesaving drugs(NSCB 2006)

11. Population 1.7 million babies born in 2004, almost 8 percent were born to mothers aged 15-19. The country’s population as of midyear 2008 is 90.4 million this year based on a population growth rate (PGR) of 1.94%. The figure would have been bigger if not for the migration trend in the past decade. Last year’s increase was 2.04% (NSCB)

12. 1.7 million babies born in 2004, almost 8 percent were born to mothers aged 15-19. Almost 30 percent of Filipino women become mothers before reaching their 21st birthday Almost 30 percent of Filipino women become mothers before reaching their 21st birthday Teen Pregnancy Ramos (2008) 1.7 million babies born in 2004, almost 8 percent were born to mothers aged 15-19. Almost 1 out of 3 Filipino women become mothers before reaching their 21st birthday Almost 1 of every 10 babies is born to a teenage mother

13. Education Out of 100 students who enter Grade 1, 15 will drop out before reaching Grade 2. Another 9 will leave before Grade 4. Only 65 will graduate from elementary. 60 of these will begin high school, but only about 42 will get a diploma. 27 of these will begin college, but only about 14 will actually get a degree. Out of these 14 graduates only 11 will get employed.

14. Political Context

15. Democratic Recession • Governed essentially according to a dysfunctional oligarchic liberaldemocratic framework dominated by traditional politicians • Case of ERAP (conviction & granting of pardon) • Case of CARP implementation • Perversion of the impeachment process • Campaign financing problem • In situation of great economic disparities and a poorly functioning legal system, formal liberty and equality of liberal democracy ends up producing wanton privilege for the elite few, and constraints and disadvantage for the poor majority • Philippines: “partly free country”(Freedom House)

16. Involvement in the 2010 Elections • Natural tendency of people, especially the youth, to disengage politically • Disenfranchised and unregistered voters • 9Million to 14 Million FTVs • Registered voters? • 10% of the target for FTVs(COMELEC) • 15% of the target for OFWs

17. Elections • How people understand elections:  “casting of ballots”and often seen disconnected with greater need for and deeper understanding of democratic governance • Significant alienation from and distrust of the electoral process low voter turnout rate in most places (60%) • But despite alienation, people still prefer elections as the best way to choose leaders as opposed to MIP, PP, or self-serving chacha • Demand oriented voters  viewed elections as both a “panacea” and an “immediate relief”

18. 2010 Elections

19. 2010 Elections • Two elections by 2010 • Terrain will be different • Framing of the 2010 elections • “Gov’t vs Oppo” • But actually its just “more of the same” • 3rd way being organized / strengthened to respond to the clamor of the reform constituency • Caveat: choose well

20. Corruption • 2007 SONA: Ombudsman’s conviction rate hits 77% this year, from 6% last 2003 (increase by more than 500%) • 2008 SONA: conviction rate for 1Q is 14% • Bribery is going down. But the grand or bigger types of corruption are on the rise (Corruption Prevention Action Project, DAP) • The giving of ‘cash gifts’ in the palace to congressmen and governors • Philippines is ranked as the most corrupt country in Asia(PERC, 2007) * based on perception of 1,476 expats * surveyed only 13 out of 54 Asian countries * from 7.8 rating to 9.4 ( 0 being the best score) • Php1.2T had been lost due to corruption in the last 5 years • E.g. Computers installed in a public school were allegedly bought at P217,500 each (PDAF Watch-April 2007, CODE-NGO)

22. Pressing Issues • Charter Change • Automation of the Elections • Social and economic reforms

23. HR1109 and the Con Ass Hullabaloo Charter Change: For Whom and For What??

24. What is Consti? Cha Cha? • Chacha or Charter change  process by which we insert amendments / revision to the provisions of the fundamental law of the land • Constitution  basic law that defines the other laws being implemented, presents the framework of governance, structures, outlines the basic rights and responsibilities etc. • Amendment vs. Revision

25. What to look for and how to analyze the discourse? • Mode of changing • Substance of the proposals • Context / timing We will not delve into the nitty gritty of the substance issue (parliamentarism’s merits and demerits vis-à-vis presidentialism etc) since there’s no concrete proposal yet…

26. How change happens?

27. Modes of Changing • Constitutional Convention (ConCon) • Constituent Assembly (ConAss) • Peoples’ Initiative & Referendum (PI)

28. For constitutional convention • Delegates are selected through an election • Members may propose revision or amendments • changes being proposed are major, and call for more extensive deliberation and consultation, that will need more time and money; costs cut by synchronizing voting for Con-Con delegates with other elections • Congress has qualified members, but the body as a whole has low credibility, and objectivity can be compromised, as they are seen to have vested interests in perpetuating themselves in power • Legislators working as Con-Ass will not be able to focus on their main mandate, which is law-making.

29. Peoples’ Initiative • A power for the people, not government • Two steps: • Formulation of proposed change / amendment • Gathering of Signature • Requirement hard to fulfill: 3% of all registered voters in a district and 12% nationwide • Amendments only and not revision

30. Constituent Assembly • Members may propose revision or amendment by ¾ vote of all its members • Faster and more economical • Many experienced legislators are familiar with the defects of the Constitution and ergo are the best to propose changes to it

31. Constitutional Question • Should the house vote jointly or separately? • Art. XVII, Sec. 1 – Any amendment to, or revision of the Constitution, may be proposed by (1) The Congress, upon a vote of three-fourths of all its Members……. (N.B.- no requirement for joint “constituent assembly”) • Argument for joint vote: - the letter of the provision does not provide for manner of voting. Since the House and the Senate must meet in joint session as a “constituent assembly”, the two chambers should vote “jointly”. The three-fourths voting requirement can be met by a vote of 194 legislators = 3/4 of the combined number of congressmen and senators

32. Joint or separate ? • Arguments for separate vote – text and context: - republican nature of legislature – check and balance system among 3 departments but also within legislature - structural separation between two chambers – each with its own rules, prerogatives, responsibilities - superiority in the hierarchy of laws – constitutional change must be treated at least the same as ordinary laws – reflected in present House rules

33. Possible motives for pushing HR1109 • Latest attempt by admin to test the boundaries of law and public opinion with the intention of staying in power • To provoke extreme action by those who oppose any constitutional amendment/revision at this time to excuse extreme counter-measures “in the interest of national stability”; • To test the solidarity and loyalty of its political machinery for the coming presidential elections or any other political exercise; • Because a deal has already been struck with enough members of the Supreme Court to give due course to any petition that raises the issue of justiciable controversy so that a ruling of a “joint vote” can be rendered

34. Why charter change now? Revisiting Issues We are told by chacha advocates – • Philippines has not progressed in last 60 years and repeatedly undergo political instability. We have had presidential-bicameral system for same period. Therefore, presidential-bicameral system is main cause for our predicament. (“Let’s try something else even if we are not sure it will work and ‘other conditions” needed”) • Change in form of govt will change behavior of politicians • With shift to parliamentary-unicameral system - “modernization” - political stability and efficient governance - economic progress with more FDI

35. Yet… • Current achievements (fiscal improvement, economic growth, improved credit rating, etc.) did not require charter change • Urgent concerns can all be addressed under present Constitution, i.e. health care, housing, education, peace and order, criminality, etc. • Preconditions for successful parliament (per study of DILG Foundation) i.e. strong political parties, strong bureaucracy and credible electoral process - Are these present in our country today?

36. IN OTHER WORDS: Wrong Diagnosis • The wrong diagnosis of chacha advocatesthat present Constitution is obstacle to modernization, political stability and economic growth - leads to wrong solutions, i.e. if Constitution (presidential-bicameral and economic provisions) is not the problem, why the rush to change it? • Rather, urgent needs of people can all be addressed under present Constitution. Implement provisions FULLY, especially social justice provisions and electoral reform • Political instability and divisiveness is exacerbated by push for charter change; relative calm with decision of SC

37. Church’s response to the Chacha discourse… • “ Changing the Constitution involving major shifts in the form of government, requires widespread participation, total transparency, and relative serenity that allows for rational discussion and debate. This is best done through a constitutional convention." - CBCP 2006

38. CBCP • “… charter change can only be morally justifiable if the revisions being proposed will lead to authentic reforms and development for the nation. Changes must assure shifts towards: principled politics, transparency and accountability, electoral and institutional reform, and more efficient delivery of services to the people, especially the poorest.” - CBCP April 2006 • Supporting peaceful protest and mass action against ConAss

39. Proceed with Elections • Any attempt that will postpone, cancel or change the nature of the 2010 Presidential • “The road back to that promise and vision require that the 2010 elections must be held, that voters must register to exercise their right to vote, that the elections must be free, fair and credible and that the Arroyo administration must step down by June 30, 2010. The road back requires that we choose new leaders with a total commitment to social reform, who have proven competence in governance and have the political will to do what is right by the people, regardless of the consequences to their interests. Otherwise, it would be more of the same thing with different faces, and the people cannot wait much longer “

40. Challenges • Tapping the potential of the youth and the vulnerable sectors in 2010 and the years to come • Youth - 11 Million • OFWs - 8 Million • Detainees - 55,000 (in Jails under BJMPs alone) • IDPs - 600,000 • PWDs - 943,000 • Elderly - 4.6 Million • IPs - 14 Million • Since the restoration of formal democracy in the country, there has been no effort in terms of the rights-based approach to electoral participation of the vulnerable sectors

41. Initial Survey of Current initiatives for the 2010 Elections (Non-Partisan and Partisan Efforts) Mapping of Responses

42. Voters Registration Voters Education Election Monitoring Candidates Profiling Transpartisan Projects Partisan TASK FORCE 2010 CENPEG BANTAY PANGAKO KAMPI YouthVote Philippines YPS LDP Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting ASIN PDP - LABAN CEAP - COCOPEA DILAAB Cebu – Citizens Involvement and Maturation for People’s Empowerment and Liberation LAKAS - CMD Citizens’ Coalition for ARMM Electoral Reform LIBERAL TAN NP CBCP- NASSA AKBAYAN LIBERSTAS PDSP VOTERIGHT BAYAN

43. Voters Registration Voters Education Election Monitoring Candidates Profiling Transpartisan Projects Partisan KAYA NATIN FIRST TIME VOTERS’ PROJECT ATIN / PERA’T PULITIKA Silingan Ka CHANGE POLITICS LENTE NPC Simbahang Lingkod ng Bayan ANG KAPATIRAN VOTE-NET Philippines AKBAYAN ACDA CMFR AMIN Bantay Eleksyon GABRIELA CODE - NGO PPP Movement

44. Possible Roadmap • Seeing the Electoral Spectrum as a continuum • Urgent concern: ensuring the maximum electoral participation of all sectors • Challenges are still staggering: • 1660 DCMs nationwide • Can optimally accommodate 250 – 350 registrants daily • 1,032,562 delisted in NCR alone • 821,029 registrants as of April 22, 2009 Voters Registration Voters Education Election Monitoring Candidates Profiling Transpartisan Projects Partisan

45. Some Possible Action Plans • Baseline Data that will aid us strategize for 2010 • General Political education for the youth and communities aimed to address the issue of cynicism and disengagement • Massive information dissemination • Registration • PCOS System and Automation • Election related issues • Volunteer and resource Mobilization

46. Concluding notes • We all do have our own advocacies, all urgent and with long-term implications • Everything that is encapsulated in one phrase about social justice in Art XIII of the Constitution – equitably diffusing wealth and political power for the common good • I hope that many of you will choose and be committed to electoral reform and engagement because, very simply, there can be no real democracy without real elections • We know that reform and change take time and require both resolve and endurance. We are here for the long-run • Elections 2010 is not the end

47. Politics • Certain local government units seem to excel in public administration despite limitations • Many despair, grow cynical and become distrustful but not everyone has given up

48. The Call of the Time is for us to be… Moved by those who suffer… Moved by those who struggle… Moved by the Spirit…

49. SimbahangLingkodngBayan Loyola House of Studies Ateneo de Manila University Mobile: SUN-8600-SLB (0922-8600-752) Landline: 426.6101 locs. 3440-41 Telefax: 426.5968 Email: slb@admu.edu.ph Web: www.slb.ph http://simbahanglingkod.multiply.com CGE (Citizenship by Good Example) SLB-Radyo Veritas 846 Sundays (3:00PM – 4:00PM)