Session 3

1. Session 3 Taiwan’s Democratic Transition and Consolidation

2. Key questions What theory (or combinations of theories) is most useful for explaining Taiwan’s democratic transition? Was the process mainly top-down or bottom up? Should we place greater stress on internal or external variables? How did Taiwan’s democratic transition compare with other new democracies?

3. Key questions How should we classify Taiwan’s democracy? Can we view it as a consolidated/liberal democracy? What defects challenges does the island’s democracy still face? How does Taiwan’s democracy perform compared with other democracies? Does Taiwan’s democracy still offer a model to other countries?

4. Areas covered today Recap on democracy under ML Definitions of democracy, demzation, consolidation Brief outline of the chronological process Theories of democratization How applied to Taiwan case Debates over how to assess the quality of Taiwan’s democracy and challenges facing its democracy?

5. Taiwan‘s democratic defects under martial law? • List • Return at end to see to what extent are they removed?

6. Taiwan‘s democratic defects under martial law? One party state Media Repression/secret police Freedom of Speech Freedom of Assembly/Association KMT assets Political structure Local only elections Party state Policy making insulated from society Ethnic injustice

7. Has and when did Taiwan make the democratic transition? • Definition • democratic transition (transformation of political system from non-democracy to representative/accountable government)

8. Competing Definitions/standards (1) • Minimalist/Schumpeter: • democracy as a set of procedures for electing leaders • Huntington: the "most powerful collective decision makers" are chosen in "fair, honest, and periodic elections," with "virtually" the whole of the adult population eligible to participate.

9. Competing Definitions/standards (2) • Dahl’s Polyarchy (liberal democracy) • -election of government officials • -free and fair elections • -inclusive suffrage • -right to stand for election • -freedom of expression • -free access to alternative sources of information • -associational autonomy

10. Freedom House Scales of civil and political rights • Scale 1-7 • Not Free (5.5-7) basic political rights are absent, basic civil liberties are widely and systematically denied. • Partly Free (3-5) limited respect for political rights and civil liberties, frequently suffer from corruption, weak rule of law, ethnic and religious strife, often a single political party dominates despite a façade of limited pluralism. • Free (1-2.5) there is a broad scope for open political competition, a climate of respect for civil liberties, significant independent civic life, and an independent media.

11. Competing definitions (3) • Democracies are political systems that translate citizens preferences into policy, have effective states that act to protect and deepen democratic rights and count on a strong participatory and critical civil society. (Grugel). • Ian Budge “democracy is a system which brings government action into line with popular preferences through party competition and voting choice in elections • Requires: • (1) parties make clear their policies to voters, • (2) parties have distinct platforms on salient issues, • (3) parties will do what they promised once win election.

12. Democratic consolidation (1) • Elites and Mass: committed to the democratic system and comply by its rules and constraints. So that a return to authoritarian rule is unimaginable or that democracy is the only game in town. (Diamond) • Huntington talks of a “two turnover test.”

13. Democratic consolidation (2) • A consolidated democracy is one in which this political order is routinized and accepted. (Grugel) • rejects the conditions for consolidation, prefers to simplify consolidation is avoiding democratic breakdown/erosion. The test of a consolidated democracy is its longevity. (Andreas Schedler)

14. Key dates in process • 1969 First supplementary election • 1977 First semi official Tangwai campaign • 1979 Kaohsiung Incident • 1986 Democratic Progressive Patry formed • 1987 Martial Law lifted • 1989 Last Supplementary election

15. Key dates in process • 1990 Last indirect presidential election • 1990 Student pro-Democracy demonstrations • 1990 National Affairs Conference • 1991-2 Full re-election of National Assembly and Legislative Yuan • 1994 Direct elections for Provincial Governor, Taipei and Kaohsiung mayors • 1996 first direct presidential election

16. Key dates in process • 1996 National Development Conference • 1997 DPP wins more seats and higher vote share than KMT for the first time. • 2000 First Change of ruling party (divided government) • 2004 DPP retains presidency by narrow margin • 2005 Constitutional reform of electoral system • 2008 Second change of ruling parties as KMT returns to power (return to unified government)

17. When should we categorise Taiwan as a democracy? • 1986 • 1991-2 • 1996 • 2000 • 2008

18. Taiwan based on Freedom House Figures

19. Theories of Democratization • Modernization • Historical Sociology • Transition Studies • Hybrid theories

20. Modernization theory • democracy as a product of modern capitalism. Modernization creates large, wealthier and better educated population, large Middle class and produces cultural changes favorable to democracy such as secularism and erosion of traditional hierarchal values.

21. Rustow • Critical of modernization thoery confusing correlation with causation • one precondition that of “national unity” or “the vast majority of citizens must have no doubt or mental reservation as to which political community they belong.”

22. Transition Studies • democracy is created by conscious committed actors, providing that they possess a degree of luck and willingness to compromise. It became popular as it offers greater hope for spreading democracy, for if the elites learn the right way to proceed democracy can be created.

23. Huntington: Third Wave Legitimacy problems for authoritarian states Rising Expectations linked to socio-economic development Liberalization of the Catholic Church Changing global environment (particularly changing policies of the European Union, Soviet Union and the US) Demonstration effect or snowballing

24. Grugel: State, civil society, and the global order Suggests change on these dimensions can be used to explain both transition and consolidation

25. Applying theory to Taiwan Modernization: But too late Transition: Cheng (1989) Huang, Higley and Lin: elite settlements Apply concept of elite settlements to examine the consensus building constitutional conventions of 1990 NAC, 1996 NDC. Argue that this pacted approach contributed to island´s democratic consolidation

26. Pacted transition or Hardline crackdown? China 1989 vs Taiwan 1990 • China: CCP hardliners dominant, softliners marginalized, and no real organized opposition negotiation partner with acceptable demands • Taiwan: KMT softliners ally with Opposition party moderates on constitutional reform, KMT hardliners and opposition hardliners both marginalized.

27. Problems with pacted approach? • bargains allow authoritarian elites to preserve aspects of authoritarian system • Elite centred and neglects the key role played downplayed by civil society, mass mobilization • May be based on the short-term rather than long term considerations • Taiwan pays price of lack of run off of under 50%, loss of legislative approval vote on premier

28. Mr Democracy, Top down? bottom up? • Top down Chiang Ching-kuo vs. Lee Teng-hui • (KMT gave Taiwan democracy, see opinion polls view, KMT ads Lee=Mr Democracy)

29. International variables • Significant in Huntington´s third wave (changing policies of Cathoklic church, US/EU pressure, demonstration effect) • For Taiwan US pressure, PRC political change, regional trends Marcos/SK, collapse of communism

30. Election driven democratization? • Role of semi-democratic elections as an independent variable for democratization • Case studies: Lamounier (Brazil), Rigger (Taiwan) • Apply? In illiberal democracies, such as Malaysia/Hong Kong?

31. Election driven democratization? • -authoritarian group uses limited elections to gain legitimacy • -feels safe as system designed so that can’t lose power), so ruling group able to gradually expand scope of elections • -Elections often treated as plebiscites, so even ruling group politicians feel pressure to support reforms • -elections offer a tool for political socialization and education of opposition elites and for masses • -relatively safe for opposition figures to attack government and get message across -elections (and promise of wider elections) encourage opposition to forsake radical methods or direct action • -elections can strengthen the reform faction of the ruling party and thus add pressure for reform • -elections can also divide the ruling party into reform and hardliners • -as the opposition share in the relatively powerless parliaments increases, increases pressure for reform

32. Bottom up democratization? Role of civil society? Role of Tangwai?

33. Rigger, “Political Science and Taiwan’s Domestic Politics,” Rigger’s conclusion that “As the many studies of Taiwan’s democratization illustrate, the democratic transition was a complex process, one that resists a theoretically-tidy explanation. Ultimately Taiwan’s transition must be viewed as multi-causal, multi-dimensional, and path-dependent.”

34. Is Taiwan´s Democracy Dead? • 1990s generally cautious optimism • Rigger 1998 lists key challenges: • -Transforming political attitudes and behaviour • Balancing presidential and legislative power • Streamlining administration • Reducing corruption • Strengthening parties

35. Is Taiwan´s Democracy Dead? • 2005 Rigger: Unfinished business of Taiwan´s democratization (much more pessemistic) • Especially critical on regime performance and political institutionalization • Kuo: Distorted democracy: iron rectangle of the state, the ruling party, local factions, and conglomerates have gradually dominated Taiwan´s political economy at the expense of distributional equality and economic efficiency • IN Taiwan also democratic trust hit by perceived polarization, legislative stalemate, disputed election 2004, revival of political violence

36. Positive appraisals • Joseph Wong/Fell: Healthy democracies • Joseph Wong: Democratic deepening: Taiwan performs well in human & civil rights, economic redistribution, public participation in policy making • Fell: moderate differentiation thesis

37. Policy implications of democratization: Does democracy make any difference? • -Forces parties to consider public opinion in designing policy or risk defeat • See units on change of ruling parties (MIXED) • -Social welfare: YES (see welfare unit) • -Gender equility: YES (see SM unit) movements • -Environmental protection: MIXED (see SM unit) • National identity: YES (see NI & FP unit) • Political corruption: YES

38. Concluding questions? • Is Taiwan a democracy/consolidated democracy? • What defects/challenges does its democracy still have? • Which theories/explanations best explain Taiwan´s transition? • How does Taiwan´s democracy perform compared to other democracies? • Does Taiwan´s democracy offer a model to other countries? • Why has confidence in Taiwanese democracy declined recently?